{"id":364317,"date":"2025-02-03T10:33:17","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T09:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364317"},"modified":"2025-02-03T10:33:19","modified_gmt":"2025-02-03T09:33:19","slug":"arctic-ice-recovery-stalls-january-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364317","title":{"rendered":"Arctic Ice Recovery Stalls January\u00a02025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Arctic ice recovered more slowly than usual in December and January, likely due to polar vortex pulling freezing air from the Arctic down into lower latitudes, replaced by warmer southern air. A post at Severe Weather Europe is February 2025 Forecast, describing the dynamics this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a mild start, a new Polar Express is looming
for the United States and Canada mid-month.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As January is slowly ending, we can look at preliminary surface temperature data for the month so far. Below is the CDAS analysis, and you can see that January was colder than normal across the entire United States, apart from California and parts of Nevada. But these anomalies do not show the full picture of just how cold some days in the month were, breaking records for several years and even decades in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, we can see that Canada had warmer than normal temperatures<\/strong>. This is an expected pattern, as while the colder air<\/strong> was transported further south into the United States, it was replaced by high-pressure and a warmer-than-normal airmass.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The movement of the pressure systems drives these temperature patterns and weather changes.<\/strong> Pairs of pressure systems are also known as Rossby Waves. You can see an example of Rossby waves in the image below by NOAA and how they are all connected and function with the jet stream.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The purple line connecting these pressure systems is called the jet stream. This rapid stream of air is found around 9 to 14 kilometers (6 to 9 miles) above sea level.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In late January, the average temperatures<\/strong> in the northern United States and southern Canada are still around or below freezing,<\/strong> so even a strong positive anomaly does not actually mean warm temperatures in that region. But, it is interesting to see the rapid shift in temperature anomalies as the pressure systems reposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

February 2025<\/strong> is about to start, with the latest weather forecasts indicating a very dynamic month<\/strong> over the United States and Canada. After the power struggle between the cold and warmth at the start of the month, another Polar Vortex lobe looms for the United States around mid-month.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is the surface temperature anomaly, averaged for next week. You can see the large supply of colder air over the northern United States and western Canada. Another cooler area is forecast for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But most of the central and southern half of the United States is forecast to have above-normal temperatures. We often see such a division<\/strong> in the weather patterns, where the colder and warmer air separate along the jet stream.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going into the weather trend for the second half of February,<\/strong> we will use the extended-range ensemble forecasts. These forecasts serve as trends that show the prevailing idea of where the pressure systems are positioned and how the airmass is expected to move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The continuous low-pressure systems over Canada helped to initiate large-scale cold air transport from the Arctic into the United States and Canada<\/strong>, also powered by the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We continue to see the presence of the low-pressure area over Canada in the forecast for February<\/strong>. But the forecast now indicates an interesting core movement of the Polar Vortex<\/strong> in the stratosphere, likely to initiate another deep cold event around mid-month<\/strong> over the United States and Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact on Arctic Ice Extents<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The 19-year average for January shows Arctic ice extents started at 13.13M km2 and ended the month at 14.36M km2.  2024 started somewhat higher and matched average at the end.  Other recent years have been lower, and 2025 started 540k km2 in deficit and 818k km2 below average at month end. The gap had closed to 400k km2 before losing extents at the end.  SII and MASIE tracked closely this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 19-year averages and some recent years.  2007 seven was close to the average, so 2018 is shown for comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region<\/strong><\/td>2025031<\/strong><\/td>Ave Day 031<\/strong><\/td>2025-Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2018031<\/strong><\/td>2025-2018<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere<\/td>13543740<\/td>14362137<\/td>-818398<\/td>13792271<\/td>-248532<\/td><\/tr>
 (1) Beaufort_Sea<\/td>1071001<\/td>1070386<\/td>614<\/td>1070445<\/td>556<\/td><\/tr>
 (2) Chukchi_Sea<\/td>965989<\/td>965974<\/td>15<\/td>965971<\/td>18<\/td><\/tr>
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea<\/td>1087137<\/td>1087063<\/td>74<\/td>1087120<\/td>18<\/td><\/tr>
 (4) Laptev_Sea<\/td>897845<\/td>897824<\/td>21<\/td>897845<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
 (5) Kara_Sea<\/td>921520<\/td>917381<\/td>4139<\/td>895363<\/td>26157<\/td><\/tr>
 (6) Barents_Sea<\/td>428814<\/td>563859<\/td>-135044<\/td>481947<\/td>-53133<\/td><\/tr>
 (7) Greenland_Sea<\/td>614789<\/td>613370<\/td>1418<\/td>501411<\/td>113378<\/td><\/tr>
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence<\/td>1080930<\/td>1328380<\/td>-247450<\/td>1406903<\/td>-325972<\/td><\/tr>
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago<\/td>854878<\/td>853510<\/td>1368<\/td>853109<\/td>1769<\/td><\/tr>
 (10) Hudson_Bay<\/td>1260903<\/td>1260778<\/td>125<\/td>1260838<\/td>66<\/td><\/tr>
 (11) Central_Arctic<\/td>3211379<\/td>3210507<\/td>872<\/td>3184817<\/td>26562<\/td><\/tr>
 (12) Bering_Sea<\/td>534452<\/td>648807 <\/td>-114354<\/td>382206<\/td>152245<\/td><\/tr>
 (13) Baltic_Sea<\/td>39334<\/td>62876 <\/td>-23542<\/td>41713.99<\/td>-2380<\/td><\/tr>
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk<\/td>559692<\/td>823877 <\/td>-264185<\/td>704398<\/td>-144707<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This year\u2019s ice extent is 818k km2 or 5.7% below average.\u00a0 About half of the deficit comes from the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk Sea.\u00a0 The other two major losses are in Barents Sea and Baffin Bay.\u00a0 With the annual maximum typically occurring mid-March, it is likely the ice then will also be lower than usual.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth\u2019s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and NH snow cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arctic ice recovered more slowly than usual in December and January, likely due to polar vortex pulling freezing air from the Arctic down into lower latitudes, replaced by warmer southern air. A post at Severe Weather Europe is February 2025 Forecast, describing the dynamics this winter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":364330,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-364317","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Arctic-sea-ice.jpg?fit=1550%2C1033&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1wM5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":424256,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424256","url_meta":{"origin":364317,"position":0},"title":"Arctic 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record cold and heavy snowfall across the United States are to greater or lesser degrees due to climate change, or at least that such a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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In the last 2 weeks the wavy Polar Vortex pushed cold south and replaced it with warmer southern air. 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As noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Circle\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Circle","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-circle"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-2026-March-Arctic-Ice-Recovery-Slowed-by-Vortex.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-2026-March-Arctic-Ice-Recovery-Slowed-by-Vortex.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-2026-March-Arctic-Ice-Recovery-Slowed-by-Vortex.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-2026-March-Arctic-Ice-Recovery-Slowed-by-Vortex.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-2026-March-Arctic-Ice-Recovery-Slowed-by-Vortex.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":389931,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=389931","url_meta":{"origin":364317,"position":5},"title":"Climate Oscillations 9: Arctic & North Atlantic Oscillations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is also called the Northern Annular Mode or NAM. It is analogous to the Southern Annular Mode or SAM discussed in\u00a0Climate Oscillations 5. However, there is a large difference, whereas SAM is an oscillation over an ocean that surrounds land, NAM is an oscillation over land\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Oscillation (AO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Oscillation (AO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-oscillation-ao"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=364317"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364317\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":364332,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/364317\/revisions\/364332"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/364330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=364317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=364317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=364317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}