{"id":364049,"date":"2025-01-30T18:22:46","date_gmt":"2025-01-30T17:22:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364049"},"modified":"2025-01-30T18:22:49","modified_gmt":"2025-01-30T17:22:49","slug":"nature-study-sunshine-hours-cloud-cover-in-europe-follow-atlantic-cycles-not-co2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364049","title":{"rendered":"NATURE Study: Sunshine Hours, Cloud Cover in Europe Follow Atlantic Cycles, Not CO2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

More cloudy days forecast for 2050\u2026 in sync with the AMO\u2026 nothing to do with CO2<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Hat-tip: Klimanachrichten<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a recent paper published in Nature here<\/a>, German researchers Horst-Joachim L\u00fcdecke, Gisela-M\u00fcller Plath and Sebastian L\u00fcning<\/strong> analyzed changes in sunshine duration by using modern statistical methods for a total of seven monthly time series of sunshine durations going back 122 to a maximum of 145 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The aim of the study was to identify possible correlations of sunshine duration with climate drivers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Powerful climate-changing oceanic cycles<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most important cyclical drivers are ocean cycles. For example, El Ni\u00f1o in the Pacific, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These influence the weather developments in Europe and impact temperatures, precipitation and other weather or climate parameters over large distances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMO drives sunshine duration over Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors found that in the case of Europe\u2019s sunshine duration, the AMO (defined as the mean sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic) is a decisive driving force of Central European sunshine duration. The authors analyzed seven measuring stations of sunshine duration, located in a north to south order, in Copenhagen, Potsdam, De Bilt, Krakow, Vienna, on the Zugspitze in Bavaria and in Trento. All seven sunshine time series saw an \u201cunusually significant\u201d correlation between AMO and sunshine duration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDespite the strong annual fluctuations in sunshine duration, the correlation between sunshine duration and AMO is clearly recognizable,\u201d reports Klimanachrichten<\/a>. \u201cThe known stability of the AMO going back at least 8000 years has been known for some time. This and the highly significant correlations of all seven sunshine duration series with the AMO therefore allow a robust prediction of future sunshine duration trends.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The correlation would allow making sunshine duration projections into the future, which would be important and useful for agriculture and solar energy production, for example. But the authors found that there are \u201cstrong fluctuations from one year to the next\u201d. This is shown in Figure 4 of the paper<\/a> with the blue dashed continuation of the AMO over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figure 4 of the paper<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The overall synchronicity, however, allows relatively reliable sunshine duration forecasts for Central Europe. Currently the AMO is at a peak and is projected to drop over the next 30 years, meaning sunshine duration should fall to around 1600 hours annually by 2050 \u2013 from about 1850 hours today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs far as the intensity of the decrease in sunshine over the next few decades is concerned, the seven sunshine durations show a clear north-south trend. In the next 30 years, sunshine duration in Copenhagen will have decreased by 16% compared to today,\u201d reports Klimnachrichten<\/a>. \u201cFor Trieste and Vienna in the south, on the other hand, it will only be 9%. The electricity yield from photovoltaic systems will therefore decrease significantly in Germany over the next three decades, somewhat more in the north than in the south.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Link: L\u00fcdecke et al. 2024: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-024-73506-5<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Report (in German): https:\/\/eike-klima-energie.eu\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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