{"id":363842,"date":"2025-01-29T09:42:06","date_gmt":"2025-01-29T08:42:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363842"},"modified":"2025-01-29T09:42:07","modified_gmt":"2025-01-29T08:42:07","slug":"another-ocean-warming-scare-bad-models-bad-data-and-a-clear-agenda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363842","title":{"rendered":"Another Ocean Warming Scare: Bad Models, Bad Data, and a Clear Agenda"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"468\" data-attachment-id=\"363846\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=363846\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?fit=1599%2C1036&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1599,1036\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;10&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;DSLR-A200&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;SONY DSC&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1182564229&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;18&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;100&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.003125&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;SONY DSC&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"SONY DSC\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SONY DSC&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?fit=723%2C468&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?resize=723%2C468&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-363846\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?resize=1024%2C663&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?resize=300%2C194&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?resize=768%2C498&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?resize=1536%2C995&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?resize=1200%2C777&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?w=1599&amp;ssl=1 1599w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">SONY DSC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/01\/28\/the-ocean-warming-scare-bad-models-bad-data-and-a-clear-agenda\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/author\/jeeztheadmin\/\">Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"328\" data-attachment-id=\"363843\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=363843\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-785.png?fit=720%2C328&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,328\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-785.png?fit=720%2C328&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-785.png?resize=720%2C328&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-363843\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-785.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-785.png?resize=300%2C137&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/news\/2025\/Research-News\/Ocean-surface-warming-four-times-faster-now-than-late-1980s\">https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/news\/2025\/Research-News\/Ocean-surface-warming-four-times-faster-now-than-late-1980s<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"artAbst\">Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) is a fundamental diagnostic of ongoing climate change, yet there is incomplete understanding of multi-decadal changes in warming rate and year-to-year variability. Exploiting satellite observations since 1985 and a statistical model incorporating drivers of variability and change, we identify an increasing rate of rise in GMSST. This accelerating ocean surface warming is physically linked to an upward trend in Earth\u2019s energy imbalance (EEI). We quantify that GMSST has increased by 0.54\u00a0\u00b1\u00a00.07 K for each GJ m<sup>\u20132<\/sup>\u00a0of accumulated energy, equivalent to 0.17 \u00b1 0.02 K decade<sup>\u20121<\/sup>\u00a0(W m<sup>\u20122)<\/sup> \u2012<sup>1<\/sup>. Using the statistical model to isolate the trend from interannual variability, the underlying rate of change of GMSST rises in proportion with Earth\u2019s energy accumulation from 0.06 K decade<sup>\u20131<\/sup>\u00a0during 1985\u201389 to 0.27 K decade<sup>\u20131<\/sup>\u00a0for 2019\u201323. While variability associated with the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation triggered the exceptionally high GMSSTs of 2023 and early 2024, 44% (90% confidence interval: 35%\u201352%) of the +0.22 K difference in GMSST between the peak of the 2023\/24 event and that of the 2015\/16 event is unexplained unless the acceleration of the GMSST trend is accounted for. Applying indicative future scenarios of EEI based on recent trends, GMSST increases are likely to be faster than would be expected from linear extrapolation of the past four decades. Our results provide observational evidence that the GMSST increase inferred over the past 40 years will likely be exceeded within the next 20 years. Policy makers and wider society should be aware that the rate of global warming over recent decades is a poor guide to the faster change that is likely over the decades to come, underscoring the urgency of deep reductions in fossil-fuel burning.<br><br><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/adaa8a\">https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/adaa8a<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, the news stories were all teed up ready to publish the moment the embargo was lifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/news\/2025\/Research-News\/Ocean-surface-warming-four-times-faster-now-than-late-1980s\">Ocean-surface warming four times faster now than late-1980s<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhm.ac.uk\/discover\/news\/2025\/january\/ocean-temperature-rise-accelerating-greenhouse-gas-levels-rising.html\">Ocean temperature rise accelerating as greenhouse gas levels keep rising<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/weather\/topstories\/the-surface-of-our-oceans-is-now-warming-four-times-faster-than-it-was-in-the-late-1980s\/ar-AA1xYWlh?ocid=msedgdhp&amp;pc=U531&amp;cvid=6b849cbb79864df6bea4b7c68aed5d02&amp;ei=11\">The surface of our oceans is now warming four times faster than it was in the late 1980s<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another day, another climate \u201ccrisis\u201d declared by scientists who seem more interested in pushing policy than in practicing rigorous, unbiased science. The latest entry in this parade of alarmism comes from Merchant et al., who claim to have&nbsp;<em>proven<\/em>&nbsp;that sea surface temperature (SST) is accelerating at an alarming rate due to Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance (EEI). Their solution? The usual\u2014immediate and severe reductions in fossil fuel use. But before we surrender modern civilization to the dictates of climate activists, let\u2019s take a closer look at this paper and see if its conclusions hold up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spoiler: They don\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The House of Cards Built on Uncertain Data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The foundation of Merchant et al.\u2019s argument is that Earth\u2019s oceans are warming faster than before, and this acceleration is due to a growing energy imbalance. The problem? The data they use to reach this conclusion is riddled with uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They rely heavily on satellite observations to measure EEI, the supposed imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing heat. However, they openly admit that the absolute accuracy of these measurements is&nbsp;<strong>not precise enough to detect imbalances as small as ~1 W\/m\u00b2<\/strong>&nbsp;with confidence. In other words, they are trying to measure a trend that is&nbsp;<strong>smaller than the margin of error in the instruments they use<\/strong>. That alone should be enough to dismiss this study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But it gets worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because the data is unreliable, they supplement it with \u201creconstructed\u201d EEI estimates before 2000 using a mix of proxy data and modeling. This means that nearly half their dataset is not even direct observation\u2014it\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>modeled guesswork<\/strong>. And yet, they use it to claim they can measure&nbsp;<strong>multi-decadal acceleration trends<\/strong>&nbsp;with certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Acceleration? Or a Statistical Magic Trick?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you go looking for acceleration, you\u2019ll probably find it\u2014especially if you design your statistical model to guarantee that outcome. That\u2019s exactly what Merchant et al. have done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They test three models to explain sea surface temperature trends:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Linear warming model<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Predicts a steady, slow warming trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Quadratic model<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Assumes an accelerating trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>EEI-driven model<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Uses their highly uncertain EEI data to \u201cexplain\u201d why warming is accelerating.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unsurprisingly, they find that the model assuming acceleration fits best, which is exactly what they wanted to prove in the first place. This is not science\u2014it\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>circular reasoning disguised as research<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What they don\u2019t do is consider alternative explanations for the changes in sea surface temperature. Natural ocean cycles like the&nbsp;<strong>Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)<\/strong>&nbsp;can drive temperature fluctuations on multi-decadal timescales. These are well-documented, yet Merchant et al. ignore them entirely, preferring to attribute every fraction of a degree increase to human emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Exaggerating Future Warming for Maximum Alarm<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The authors then take their dubious acceleration trend and extrapolate it forward to claim that future ocean warming will&nbsp;<strong>far exceed previous estimates<\/strong>. They construct three scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>On-trend<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 EEI continues rising, leading to catastrophic warming.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Moderate<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Warming still accelerates but not as fast.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mitigated<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Even with severe emissions cuts, warming will still accelerate.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is nothing but a glorified version of the&nbsp;<strong>climate doomsday scenario playbook<\/strong>\u2014start with a model that assumes acceleration, plug in arbitrary assumptions about future emissions, and produce worst-case predictions that just happen to align perfectly with the climate policy agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ignoring Uncomfortable Contradictions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study claims that EEI has been rising&nbsp;<strong>since around 2010<\/strong>&nbsp;and that this is driving SST acceleration. But even they acknowledge that&nbsp;<strong>anthropogenic aerosol reductions (i.e., cleaner air)<\/strong>&nbsp;could be responsible for part of the observed trend. If less pollution is allowing more sunlight to reach the ocean, wouldn\u2019t that mean past warming was&nbsp;<em>suppressed<\/em>&nbsp;by pollution, rather than proving CO\u2082-driven warming is out of control?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if that\u2019s true, wouldn\u2019t this mean that&nbsp;<strong>climate models have been overestimating the role of CO\u2082 all along<\/strong>? Merchant et al. conveniently ignore these contradictions because they don\u2019t support their acceleration narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Real Purpose of This Study: Climate Policy, Not Science<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest red flag in this paper is the authors\u2019 final conclusion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cPolicy makers and wider society should be aware that the rate of global warming over recent decades is a poor guide to the faster change that is likely over the decades to come, underscoring the urgency of deep reductions in fossil-fuel burning.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notice how they&nbsp;<strong>jump from a scientific claim to a policy demand<\/strong>&nbsp;without hesitation? This is the true goal of the paper: to manufacture an urgent climate crisis that justifies drastic intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No mention of alternative explanations for the observed warming.<br>No discussion of uncertainties in their methods.<br>No consideration of the costs or consequences of their proposed policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just a predetermined conclusion wrapped in the appearance of scientific rigor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Final Verdict: Junk Science in Service of Activism<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This paper is not an objective scientific analysis\u2014it is&nbsp;<strong>an advocacy document masquerading as research<\/strong>. It relies on uncertain data, manipulates statistical models to reinforce a preferred narrative, and exaggerates future warming to scare policymakers into action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The truth is, given the uncertainties involved,&nbsp;<strong>nothing we are seeing is cause for concern<\/strong>. The climate has always fluctuated, and minor changes in sea surface temperature are&nbsp;<strong>entirely within natural variability<\/strong>. The only thing accelerating here is the&nbsp;<strong>desperation of climate activists<\/strong>&nbsp;to keep their funding and political influence intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next time you see a breathless headline about\u00a0<em>\u201caccelerating ocean warming\u201d<\/em>, remember\u00a0<strong>bad models, biased assumptions, and agenda-driven science are the real drivers behind these claims\u2014not reality.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Another day, another climate \u201ccrisis\u201d declared by scientists who seem more interested in pushing policy than in practicing rigorous, unbiased science. The latest entry in this parade of alarmism comes from Merchant et al., who claim to have proven that sea surface temperature (SST) is accelerating at an alarming rate due to Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance (EEI). Their solution? The usual\u2014immediate and severe reductions in fossil fuel use. But before we surrender modern civilization to the dictates of climate activists, let\u2019s take a closer look at this paper and see if its conclusions hold up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":363846,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828920,691830588,691818087,691818828,691832933,691822276,691832934],"class_list":{"0":"post-363842","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo","9":"tag-earths-energy-imbalance-eei","10":"tag-global-warming","11":"tag-pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo","12":"tag-sea-surface-temperature-gmsst","13":"tag-sea-surface-temperature-sst","14":"tag-unbiased-science","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0stormy-clouds-over-the-sea-1249249.jpg?fit=1599%2C1036&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1wEq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":345955,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=345955","url_meta":{"origin":363842,"position":0},"title":"\u00a0New Study: Cloud Changes \u2018Are The Cause Of Changes In The Accumulated Solar Energy\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The radiation budget changes shaping trends in global dimming (cooling) and global brightening (warming) are driven by cloud cover changes, which are themselves modulated by internal deep ocean processes.","rel":"","context":"In \"air temperature\"","block_context":{"text":"air temperature","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=air-temperature"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0-coouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0-coouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0-coouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0-coouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0-coouds-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":387822,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=387822","url_meta":{"origin":363842,"position":1},"title":"Climate Oscillations 7: The Pacific Mean SST","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I originally planned to discuss the North Pacific Index (NPI) in this post, but while researching it, I discovered something interesting about Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST) and how it relates to the\u00a0HadCRUT5\u00a0global average surface temperature. As a result, this post is about the total Pacific mean SST and its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Oscillations\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Oscillations","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-oscillations"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-259.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-259.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-259.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-259.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":388923,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=388923","url_meta":{"origin":363842,"position":2},"title":"Climate Oscillations 8: The NPI and PDO","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The North Pacific Index (NPI) is computed from the area-weighted sea level air pressure (SLP) over the region 30\u00b0N-65\u00b0N and 160\u00b0E-140\u00b0W. It measures interannual to multidecadal variations in Pacific atmospheric circulation. As explained in Trenberth and Hurrel, the winter Aleutian low pressure system moves on a decadal time scale and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Oscillations\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Oscillations","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-oscillations"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":392991,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=392991","url_meta":{"origin":363842,"position":3},"title":"Climate Oscillations 11: Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index or\u00a0ONI\u00a0is NOAA\u2019s primarily indicator for monitoring the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the critical Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. It is a 3-month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, defined as 5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S and 120\u00b0W-170\u00b0W. Figure 1 shows the ONI as computed from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Oscillations\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Oscillations","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-oscillations"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":357864,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=357864","url_meta":{"origin":363842,"position":4},"title":"Ocean Temperatures and Climate Hysteria: A Lesson in Perspective","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For the past two years, headlines, policy statements, and social media feeds have been flooded with dire warnings about rising ocean temperatures. Every uptick in the graphs was treated as irrefutable proof of humanity\u2019s march toward ecological collapse. The news cycle offered little room for nuance, and as usual, the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Hysteria\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Hysteria","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-hysteria"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02721813.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02721813.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02721813.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02721813.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02721813.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":355289,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=355289","url_meta":{"origin":363842,"position":5},"title":"Climate Models, Clouds, OLR, and ECS","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It is now clear, at least to me, that modern climate models make many critical assumptions that are poorly supported and sometimes conflict with observations. This is an attempt to explain some of these problems and how they developed over time. It is long past time for the \u201cconsensus\u201d to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=363842"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":363848,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363842\/revisions\/363848"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/363846"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=363842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=363842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=363842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}