{"id":363597,"date":"2025-01-27T08:50:14","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T07:50:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363597"},"modified":"2025-01-27T08:50:16","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T07:50:16","slug":"constraint-payments-could-hit-6-billion-in-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363597","title":{"rendered":"Constraint Payments Could Hit \u00a36 Billion In\u00a02030"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h\/t Philip Bratby<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

British households face costs of up to \u00a33bn a year to pay windfarms and other electricity producers to stop generating when there is too much wind<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Telegraph report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

British households face costs of up to \u00a33bn a year to <\/em>pay windfarms<\/em><\/a> and other electricity producers to stop generating, according to the country\u2019s grid operator.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Energy System Operator (Neso) has warned of the looming bill as the<\/em> power grid struggles<\/em><\/a> to keep pace with the expansion of renewables.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means that when the wind blows more strongly, the power generated can overwhelm transmission lines and force Neso to intervene.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To ease pressures, Neso hands wind farm operators \u201cconstraint payments\u201d to stop generating, which are aimed at compensating for lost revenue.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such payments already hit \u00a31bn last year, although a report from Neso has warned that this bill is poised to rise to \u00a33bn by 2030.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other industry experts fear that the real cost could end up much higher.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Octopus Energ<\/em>y, the nation\u2019s leading power supplier, estimates that by 2030 constraint payments could be adding \u00a36bn a year to consumer bills \u2013 roughly equating to \u00a3200 a household.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/business\/2025\/01\/25\/households-face-3bn-bill-switch-off-turbines-high-winds<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NESO\u2019s assessment is based on these calculations, included in their Clean Power 2030 report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.neso.energy\/publications\/clean-power-2030<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The cost of curtailment and exporting surplus power at a loss add up to \u00a310\/MWh, which based on their anticipated generation of 354 TWh in 2030 gives a total cost of \u00a33.5 billion. (NESO\u2019s Workbook gives cost of \u00a33.68 billion).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that this figure is on top of the costs in 2023, which were already significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But as Octopus say, the real cost could end up being much greater.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to NESO, in their 2030 projection, 22 TWh of surplus power will ne paid to switch off, but another 61 TWh will, they say, be exported at an average price of \u00a340.MWh. (Total wind generation will be 245 TWh, meaning a third of this is surplus to requirements).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there is no demand abroad for this power, then this will also have to be constrained off, thus losing the potential export income of \u00a32.4 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Telegraph, DESNZ argue that cheaper generation costs will more than offset constraint payments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However this is a falsehood, based on NESO\u2019s claim that generation costs will fall by \u00a315\/MWh. But this saving is not real, it is sleight of hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As NESO themselves explain, their \u201ccost of gas power\u201d includes a spurious carbon tax of \u00a360\/MWh:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com\/2024\/12\/13\/milibands-300-energy-saving-is-smoke-mirrors\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In other words, DESNZ will increase gas power generation costs by raising taxes, and then argue that renewables are cheaper, even though wholesale costs will be higher than now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to NESO\u2019s Workbook,<\/a> this tax is adding \u00a319\/MWh to overall electricity wholesale costs.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In reality, Miliband\u2019s expansion of renewables will increase generation costs, not decrease them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Add that increase to the other extra costs tabled by NESO, ie constraint, storage and grid upgrades, and we are looking at a total increase of around \u00a330\/MWh. This equates to about \u00a310 billion a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, it is disappointing that previously reliable experts, Cornwall Insight, have also fallen for this con trick played on us by NESO and DESNZ, if the Telegraph article is accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

British households face costs of up to \u00a33bn a year to pay windfarms and other electricity producers to stop generating when there is too much wind.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":363607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831956,691831352,691832884,691832885],"class_list":["post-363597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-clean-power-2030","tag-neso","tag-pay-windfarms","tag-power-grid-struggles","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0The-Dark-Knight-Joker-Burning-Money-Pile.jpg?fit=2097%2C1180&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1wAt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":405347,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405347","url_meta":{"origin":363597,"position":0},"title":"The Cost Of\u00a0Davey","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/27\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A major UK offshore windfarm has received a staggering \u00a32 billion of subsidy payments in just six years. Hornsea 1, sited in the North Sea, was one of the windfarms awarded contracts in 2014 by then Energy Secretary Ed Davey.","rel":"","context":"In \"Contracts for Difference (CfD)\"","block_context":{"text":"Contracts for Difference (CfD)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=contracts-for-difference-cfd"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMOwAK-ZyBxmofc0i-gmdXPiD43qTjtP8EvlJ2dQ1PWGRn-C-1X91qDo8ZZpXIoqduP-u57ZSIjkJFYhjnCUONmqQFBpgtLhPEUDXtRLqxY8pkmVISrwASAZ6iPysuCFg86vDNuQsWD-vTcmLBez6uQtHet-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMOwAK-ZyBxmofc0i-gmdXPiD43qTjtP8EvlJ2dQ1PWGRn-C-1X91qDo8ZZpXIoqduP-u57ZSIjkJFYhjnCUONmqQFBpgtLhPEUDXtRLqxY8pkmVISrwASAZ6iPysuCFg86vDNuQsWD-vTcmLBez6uQtHet-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMOwAK-ZyBxmofc0i-gmdXPiD43qTjtP8EvlJ2dQ1PWGRn-C-1X91qDo8ZZpXIoqduP-u57ZSIjkJFYhjnCUONmqQFBpgtLhPEUDXtRLqxY8pkmVISrwASAZ6iPysuCFg86vDNuQsWD-vTcmLBez6uQtHet-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMOwAK-ZyBxmofc0i-gmdXPiD43qTjtP8EvlJ2dQ1PWGRn-C-1X91qDo8ZZpXIoqduP-u57ZSIjkJFYhjnCUONmqQFBpgtLhPEUDXtRLqxY8pkmVISrwASAZ6iPysuCFg86vDNuQsWD-vTcmLBez6uQtHet-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMOwAK-ZyBxmofc0i-gmdXPiD43qTjtP8EvlJ2dQ1PWGRn-C-1X91qDo8ZZpXIoqduP-u57ZSIjkJFYhjnCUONmqQFBpgtLhPEUDXtRLqxY8pkmVISrwASAZ6iPysuCFg86vDNuQsWD-vTcmLBez6uQtHet-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286456,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286456","url_meta":{"origin":363597,"position":1},"title":"Oersted Cancel Two US Offshore Wind\u00a0Projects","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Orsted, the world's largest offshore wind developer, said it would stop developing its 2,248-megawatt (MW) Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects in New Jersey. 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LONDON (Reuters) - Shell's finance chief said on Thursday the firm\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Massachusetts\"","block_context":{"text":"Massachusetts","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=massachusetts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Shell-Logo-Wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Shell-Logo-Wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Shell-Logo-Wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Shell-Logo-Wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Shell-Logo-Wallpaper.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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