{"id":363205,"date":"2025-01-24T14:18:02","date_gmt":"2025-01-24T13:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363205"},"modified":"2025-01-24T14:18:04","modified_gmt":"2025-01-24T13:18:04","slug":"amoc-alarmism-doesnt-stick-wunsch-caution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363205","title":{"rendered":"AMOC Alarmism Doesn\u2019t Stick (Wunsch caution)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bradley Jr.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ed. note<\/strong>: A recent peer-reviewed article<\/a> in Nature<\/em> (discussed here<\/a>) has, once again, knocked this speculative \u201cfat tail\u201d hypothesis down to size. \u201cBased on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products,\u201d the authors concluded, \u201cthe decadal averaged AMOC at 26.5\u00b0N has not weakened from 1963 to 2017 although substantial variability exists at all latitudes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate alarm is the name of the game for the government-led Climate Industrial Complex to keep the taxpayer grants going to the wind, solar, and battery rent-seekers. Nature is optimal and fragile, and the game is to throw hypotheticals against the wall to see what might stick. The mainstream media is hungry for a scary scenario too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One perennial fear is a potential collapse of a crucial system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A few scientists are \u2018out there\u2019 predicting an increasing chance of a collapse, but the consensus leans the other way. [1]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forty-four scientists, including Michael \u201cClimategate\u201d Mann, published an open letter<\/a> with ominous implications. \u201cRecent research since the last IPCC report does suggest that the IPCC has underestimated this risk and that the passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next few decades,\u201d the letter states. The missive closes with a call to action:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Recognizing that adaptation to such a severe climate catastrophe is not a viable option, we urge the Council of Nordic Ministers to (a) initiate an assessment of this significant risk to the Nordic countries and (b) take steps to minimize this risk as much as possible. This could involve leveraging the strong international standing of the Nordic countries to increase pressure for greater urgency and priority in the global effort to reduce emissions as quickly as possible, in order to stay close to the 1.5 \u00b0C target set by the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The media loved it. \u201cKey Atlantic current could collapse soon, \u2018impacting the entire world for centuries to come,\u2019 leading climate scientists warn,\u201d wrote<\/a> Sascha Pare in LiveScience. \u201cHow much should you worry about a collapse of the Atlantic conveyor belt?,\u201d asked<\/a> Bob Henson at Yale Climate Connections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carl Wunsch Rebuttal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are the risks of a collapse of the dominant mechanism of northward heat transport in the North Atlantic, ushering in record cold, a real threat? Has it been \u201cgreatly underestimated\u201d as the above letter states? In such instances, a good second opinion is needed, and Carl Wunsch of MIT is about as good as one can get.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I emailed Professor Wunsch with the query:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many years ago, Dick Lindzen gave me your address to ask about the fear of a disruption of the conveyor belt in regard to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. You expressed doubt back then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This alarm is in the air today, and I wondered if you had some thoughts on this post (below) to share on LinkedIn where a debate is taking place. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Among the many reasons why we ought to cut climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions as quickly and sharply as possible, the weakening of a system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, ranks high indeed. Several key scientific papers over the last couple of years have put this long-percolating climate concern back on the front burner. It\u2019s hard to overstate how widespread and calamitous the impacts could be if this conveyor belt were to collapse \u2013 and it\u2019s a process that could begin in the next several decades, if the new work is on target.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

He responded:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

I\u2019m aware of the fuss going on about the AMOC. Indeed I co-authored a paper about it not long ago (I\u2019ve attached it). It\u2019s somewhat technical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To clarify however: I am *not* a climate skeptic, and I regard the threat of major climate change as very real and very worrisome.  In that context, one can argue that alarming the public about elements such as the behavior of the AMOC could lead to useful actual political and scientific\/engineering progress and precautions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where I become conflicted is when the particular science is mis-interpreted and mis-understood. Turning the AMOC on and off as an explanation of major past and possible future change has become a go-to-story for people who want a simple explanation of a very complicated system. [Wallace] Broecker [here<\/a>] did the world a great dis-service with his advocacy of the \u201cconveyor belt\u201d which leads people to think they understand a system which looks nothing like his picture (a memorable graphic however). <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

There are lots of issues connected with the fuss over the AMOC. Amongst them, prominently, are the use of numerical models which produce ocean circulations that are far from what we actually observe. How seriously should one take their \u201cpredictions\u201d? That the climate can change dramatically from what we have known for the last several hundred years is a fact, and a very worrisome fact at that. Does that mean the AMOC stories in the media are correct? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate is a global phenomenon. Consider a hypothetical situation: turn the North Atlantic Ocean abruptly into all land. Zero AMOC; removal of a major current system. How does the climate system adjust? At the present time, the Earth is in near thermal balance (radiation incoming from the sun is almost equal to that radiated back to space\u2014the small excess of incoming over outgoing is the global warming phenomenon). Physics suggests that the system would adjust to the removal of the North Atlantic by ultimately re-establishing global near-heat balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How does that happen? Change in clouds? Change in ocean circulation? Change in distribution of ice sheets? Change in atmospheric circulation? All global. How long does it take (years, decades, centuries)? What will the climate be like during the transition? We do not have numerical models with the demonstrated skill to answer such questions. Could be terrible, however. Suppression of the AMOC, should it happen, raises precisely the same global questions with the added complication that the North Atlantic circulation itself would also change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Isn\u2019t it worth taking some precautions? It\u2019s an insurance problem in the same sense that I would rewire my house if an electrician told me that the existing wiring could cause a fire (not that a fire *will* happen; only that we know it could). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We live at a time when climate scientists do not want to be labeled a skeptic or denier, yet honest scientists are still doing their duty to weigh in against undue alarmism. (Note the beginning and end of Wunsch\u2019s replay above.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also note that how the Deep Ecology notion of an optimal, stable, fragile climate is the default thinking of so many natural scientists. The idea that the human influence on climate could be positive and even a \u2018fat tail\u2019 good (such as cancelling out a series of volcanoes or a natural global cooling) is not part of the analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong> Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) describes the movement of water from north to south and back from south to north in the Atlantic Ocean. This circulation is responsible for warmth in different parts of the world and carries essential nutrients for ocean life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is whether this (very slow) process is slowing down because of anthropogenic warming of the water, which would cause droughts in South Africa and sea level rise in the eastern U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent peer-reviewed\u00a0article\u00a0in\u00a0Nature\u00a0(discussed\u00a0here) has, once again, knocked this speculative \u201cfat tail\u201d hypothesis down to size. \u201cBased on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products,\u201d the authors concluded, \u201cthe decadal averaged AMOC at 26.5\u00b0N has not weakened from 1963 to 2017 although substantial variability exists at all latitudes.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":363206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821384,691832829,691819134,691832828],"class_list":{"0":"post-363205","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc","9":"tag-carl-wunsch","10":"tag-climate-alarmism","11":"tag-michael-climategate-mann","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0348_1255575_f1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C497&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1wu9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":285535,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285535","url_meta":{"origin":363205,"position":0},"title":"Turmoil around the AMOC again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"ANY estimation of the timing of a tipping point must take into account the uncertainties, which are so considerable that they are all inadequate in the light of day, when made. Bet you won't read that in the media? From The\u00a0KlimaNachrichten Editor By Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse A reminiscence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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Atlantic Oscillations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"North Atlantic is a Climate Driver The importance of this basin is described by B\u00f6rgel et al. (2020)\u00a0The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation controls the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on North European climate.\u00a0 Excerpts in italics with my bolds.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270100,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270100","url_meta":{"origin":363205,"position":4},"title":"Wrong, USA Today, Ocean Currents Aren\u2019t Near Collapse","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This claim is based on computer model projections of the future based assumptions about past ocean current behavior and the factors which drive ocean currents. Actual data and its use is limited.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ocean\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ocean","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ocean"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-889.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":229613,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=229613","url_meta":{"origin":363205,"position":5},"title":"Experts \u201aexplain slowing Atlantic Ocean currents \u2018\u2013 or do they?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Nonetheless, the studies indicate that the AMOC has started to slow down in recent decades.\u2019 If the slowdown occurred under cooling, why should future warming be likely to cause more of it?","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0AMOC-1024x768-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=363205"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363205\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":363209,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363205\/revisions\/363209"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/363206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=363205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=363205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=363205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}