{"id":362953,"date":"2025-01-22T08:50:24","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T07:50:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362953"},"modified":"2025-01-22T08:50:25","modified_gmt":"2025-01-22T07:50:25","slug":"alarmist-scientist-daniel-swain-demonizes-natural-climate-variability-calling-it-hydroclimate-whiplash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362953","title":{"rendered":"Alarmist Scientist Daniel Swain Demonizes \u201cNatural Climate Variability\u201d calling it \u201cHydroclimate Whiplash\u201d!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jim Steele<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daniel Swain is a good meteorologist but being a prot\u00e9g\u00e9 of infamous climate alarmists like Noah Diffenbaugh and Michael Mann, he frequently spreads climate alarmists\u2019 propaganda. His latest paper pushes the narrative that global warming is increasing dangerous \u201cHydroclimate Whiplash\u201d<\/strong> fear mongering there is an increasing shift between wet years and dry years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While wet years are confidently determined by measuring precipitation, dry years are determined by estimating changes in evapotranspiration which cannot be measured directly<\/strong>. The inability to measure evapotranspiration creates great uncertainty<\/strong> in Swain\u2019s estimation of dryness trends and his so-called whiplash effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Swain argues that floods and droughts are made worse by global warming because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor<\/strong>. However, that is an irrelevant science factoid<\/strong>. The huge flaw in his argument is that the atmosphere cannot absorb any more water vapor no matter how warm, if the moisture isn\u2019t available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moisture availability depends on the dynamics that transport water from the oceans to the land<\/strong>. Simply consider the fact that despite very warm temperatures in the Sahara Desert, its warmer temperatures do not increase the rates of desert precipitation or rates of evaporation. It is the Sahara\u2019s dryness that causes such hot temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

First consider that natural El Nino-La Nina Oscillations (graphic A) are a major driver of the earth\u2019s wetness-dryness variability<\/strong>. While an El Nino event brings heavy rains to the western America, it causes drought in Indonesia. El Nino events happen every 3 to 7 years causing natural inter-annual wet-dry variability. Furthermore, El Nino activity has increased over the past 6000 years as global climate has cooled<\/strong>, long before any changing trends can be explained by rising CO2. The Pacific Ocean also experiences El Nino-like conditions that last 20-30 years before switching to La Nina-like conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Nino-La Nina oscillations also drive the Indian Ocean Dipole (graphic B),<\/strong> causing extreme wetness that alternates between eastern Africa and the Indonesian Islands. El Nino-La Nina Oscillations also affect climate in the Atlantic by strengthening or weakening the North Atlantic\u2019s subtropical high pressure (graphic C)<\/strong>. La Nina events strengthen the pressure system moving its center westward. That shift causes wetter conditions in the eastern United States as atmospheric circulation drives more moisture westward. In contrast El Nino events weaken the pressure system causing drier conditions by shifting rainfall eastward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Finally consider the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ graphic E) as a major driver of natural wetness-dryness variability<\/strong>. The ITCZ forms where northern and southern trade winds converge. That convergence drives moisture laden air upwards where it cools so that the moisture rains out. Over 30% of the earth\u2019s rainfall happens beneath the ITCZ<\/strong>. The remaining air is now dry and circulates to the north and south. Where that dry air descends, it brings dry weather which generates most of the world\u2019s deserts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The ITCZ moves north and south mostly following the seasonal path of the sun\u2019s direct rays (graphic F). As graphic D shows, the ITCZ\u2019s position has shifted over thousands of years as well as over decades<\/strong>. As a result of the ITCZ\u2019s more northerly location, more moisture reached the Sahara, transforming it into a lake-filled savannah supporting abundant wildlife and human tribes. As the ITCZ migrated southward as the earth cooled starting 6000 years ago, fewer rains reached the Sahara re-creating a desert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, ITCZ migrations affect where monsoon wetness will occu<\/strong>r. In addition, the ITCZ affects the intensity of El Nino and La Nina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Swain sadly ignores these major drivers of natural wetness-dryness variability, preferring to blame global warming. Thus, Swain and his fellow climate alarmists fail to educate the public about the known reasons for natural wetness-dryness variability. Addicted to a belief in a global warming climate crisis, alarmists prefer to blame a warmer atmosphere\u2019s ability to hold more water vapor. Thus, they can conveniently maintain their crisis narrative that paradoxically argues CO2 warming can cause both wetter and drier conditions and dry the landscape causing more fires. It is bad science, dedicated to pushing a bogus climate crisis agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>
<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Daniel Swain is a good meteorologist but being a prot\u00e9g\u00e9 of infamous climate alarmists like Noah Diffenbaugh and Michael Mann, he frequently spreads climate alarmists\u2019 propaganda. His latest paper pushes the narrative that global warming is increasing dangerous \u201cHydroclimate Whiplash\u201d fear mongering there is an increasing shift between wet years and dry years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":362954,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691832774,691832773,691832775,691818087,691832618,691828852],"class_list":{"0":"post-362953","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","9":"tag-climate-alarmists-propaganda","10":"tag-daniel-swain","11":"tag-el-nino-la-nina","12":"tag-global-warming","13":"tag-hydroclimate-whiplash","14":"tag-intertropical-convergence-zone-itcz","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0GhtBJqVaYAA4b_x.jpeg?fit=2809%2C2475&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1wq5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":364453,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364453","url_meta":{"origin":362953,"position":0},"title":"Climate Whiplash and California Wildfires","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The difference between weather and climate is constantly mistaken by climate change advocates Recently Southern California wildfires have been blamed on climate change.\u00a0\u00a0Patrick Brown addressed\u00a0the question how much did \u201cClimate Whiplash\u201d impact the Los Angeles fires. \u00a0His excellent analysis raises concerns that I want to highlight.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ss-170710-california-wildfires-se-01.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ss-170710-california-wildfires-se-01.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ss-170710-california-wildfires-se-01.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ss-170710-california-wildfires-se-01.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ss-170710-california-wildfires-se-01.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":362047,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362047","url_meta":{"origin":362953,"position":1},"title":"Hydroclimate Whiplash: Alarmism, Uncertainty, and Suspicious Timing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/14\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The\u00a0Nature Reviews Earth & Environment\u00a0paper on hydroclimate volatility represents yet another example of speculative science dressed up as crisis-level evidence. 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