{"id":362826,"date":"2025-01-21T07:41:41","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T06:41:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362826"},"modified":"2025-01-21T07:48:57","modified_gmt":"2025-01-21T06:48:57","slug":"surprise-the-north-atlantic-current-is-stable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362826","title":{"rendered":"Surprise! The North Atlantic Current is Stable"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by<\/strong> Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another nail in the coffin of climate models? A study published in Nature suggests there is no evidence for a decline in AMOC over the last 60 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMOC study: Critical ocean current has not declined in the last 60 years<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Atlantic Ocean, a system of connected currents \u2013 the AMOC \u2013 moves water throughout the world\u2019s oceans powered by a combination of winds and ocean density. It not only distributes the ocean\u2019s heat, moisture, and nutrients, but regulates the Earth\u2019s climate and weather too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the climate is continuously changing and the atmosphere is warming, many scientists fear that fresh water from melting polar ice sheets could significantly disrupt \u2013 or even collapse \u2013 the AMOC. While a decline of the AMOC would have grave consequences, a collapse would be truly catastrophic<\/a>, as Oceanographic<\/em> reported back in October 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As studies about the AMOC\u2019s long term future are still uncertain, a team of scientists from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) took a closer look at the past to help inform the AMOC\u2019s likely future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a new paper published in Nature Communications<\/em><\/a>, scientists made a surprising announcement: The AMOC has not declined in the last 60 years, indicating that it is currently more stable than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur paper says that the Atlantic overturning has not declined yet,<\/strong>\u201d Nicholas P. Foukal, study author, adjunct scientist in Physical Oceanography at WHOI and assistant professor at the University of Georgia, said. \u201cThat doesn\u2019t say anything about its future<\/strong>, but it doesn\u2019t appear the anticipated changes have occurred yet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0https:\/\/oceanographicmagazine.com\/news\/new-study-argues-amoc-has-not-declined-in-the-last-60-years\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The abstract of the study;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Atlantic overturning inferred from air-seaheatfluxes indicates no decline sincethe 1960s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jens Terhaar1,4,5, Linus Vogt 1,2 & Nicholas P. Foukal 1,3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Received: 2 July 2024
Accepted: 6 December 2024
Published online: 15 January 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for globalocean carbon and heat uptake, and controls the climate around the NorthAtlantic. Despite its importance, quantifying the AMOC\u2019s past changes andassessing its vulnerability to climate change remains highly uncertain.Understanding past AMOC changes has relied on proxies, most notably seasurface temperature anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we use24 Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectPhase 6 (CMIP6) to demonstrate that these temperature anomalies cannotrobustly reconstruct the AMOC. Instead, wefind that air-sea heatfluxanomalies north of any given latitude in the North Atlantic between 26.5\u00b0N and50\u00b0N are tightly linked to the AMOC anomaly at that latitude on decadal andcentennial timescales. On these timescales, air-sea heatflux anomalies arestrongly linked to AMOC-driven northward heatflux anomalies through theconservation of energy. On annual timescales, however, air-sea heatfluxanomalies are mostly altered by atmospheric variability and less by AMOCanomalies. Based on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heatflux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products, the decadal averaged AMOC at 26.5\u00b0N has not weakened from 1963 to 2017 although substantial variability exists at all latitudes.Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-55297-5.epdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Michael Mann appears to be a fan of imminent AMOC collapse theories;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf claim the Gulf Stream is slowing due to Greenland ice melt, except reality says otherwise<\/a><\/blockquote>