{"id":362535,"date":"2025-01-18T09:30:24","date_gmt":"2025-01-18T08:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362535"},"modified":"2025-01-18T09:30:26","modified_gmt":"2025-01-18T08:30:26","slug":"sea-level-rise-panic-cancelled","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362535","title":{"rendered":"<\/font>Sea Level Rise Panic Cancelled?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/font><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/font>News Brief by<\/font> Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/font>Antarctic ice melt has been an ongoing scientific controversy for more than a decade. Oddly, the warring parties are all at the same U.S. Federal Agency. The war, which involved salvos of papers between the NASA’s GRACE Ice Mass team<\/a> and H. Jay Zwally<\/a> and his team.<\/font><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the background:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current NASA Vital Signs of the Planet<\/a> web page  [NASA\u2019s climate crisis propaganda section] for Ice Sheets<\/a> carries this message boldly across the top one third of the page: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In 2021, I wrote about this issue in Antarctic Ice Mass \u2014 Alternate Sources<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>which featured these two contrasting images (but not together):<\/font><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/font><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In 2021, I wrote about this issue in Antarctic Ice Mass \u2014 Alternate Sources<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>which featured these two contrasting images (but not together):<\/font><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Here is <\/font>today’s<\/em> Vital Signs Antarctic Ice Sheets graphic:<\/font><\/font><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It is important to remember that both the NASA\u2019s GRACE Ice Mass team<\/a> and Zwally et al. use the same data sets to determine their estimates of losses and gains.   The differing results are then an indication of the different approaches to interpretation of that data, which may include biases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA\u2019s climate.gov doesn\u2019t quite agree with Zwally et al. yet.  But the Vital Signs graphic is for \u201cAntarctic Ice Mass in Gts\u201d  . . . and that total ice mass has been level since turn of the century, with a lot of variation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compare Zwally\u2019s  2021 estimate of -12 GT a year with the GRACE figure of -137 GT a year (in the two panel image,  on the right).  Zwally\u2019s runs through the end of 2016.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t think for a moment that Jay Zwally is some kook on the shady fringes of NASA \u2013 he is one of their top flight scientists and led the 2003 ICESat mission<\/a>.   He presented one of NASA\u2019s famed MANIAC talks<\/a> in 2019.   And he has firmly stated that his Antarctic Ice Mass work is not a repudiation of climate science\u2014it is just solid evidence that Antarctic Ice Mass is not plummeting as the Climate Crisis Team claims.  (One might rightly ask why, then, don\u2019t the creators of the Vital Signs Ice Sheets page present his results alongside of those of the GRACE team.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what\u2019s the news?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The news is that some clever scientists \u2014 Collin M. Schohn, Neal R. Iverson, Lucas K. Zoe , Jacob R. Fowler, and Natasha Morgan-Witts \u2014 had decided that instead of blindly following the long-standing formulas for glacier ice flow, maybe they ought to find out, using real experiments, if those formulas actually reflect what happens in the physical universe where glaciers, ice under pressure, are flowing and melting.  It took them ten years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story is covered in this SciTechDaily<\/em><\/a> <\/em>article:  Glacier Experts Uncover Critical Flaw in Sea-Level Rise Predictions<\/em><\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure:  I am not a glaciologist. I know next to nothing about the physics of ice melting under pressure.  Therefore, I report only what SciTechDaily<\/em> says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article is a press release from Iowa State University<\/a> (the by line is theirs).  It says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c<\/strong>New research shows temperate glacier ice flows more steadily than previously thought, leading to lower projections of sea-level rise.<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neal Iverson<\/em><\/a> started with two lessons in ice physics when asked to describe a research paper about glacier ice flow that has just been published by the journal Science.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, said the distinguished professor emeritus of <\/em>Iowa State University\u2019s Department of the Earth, Atmosphere, and Climate<\/em><\/a>, there are different types of ice within glaciers. Parts of glaciers are at their pressure-melting temperature and are soft and watery.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That temperate ice is like an ice cube left on a kitchen counter, with meltwater pooling between the ice and the countertop, he said. Temperate ice has been difficult to study and characterize.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, other parts of glaciers have cold, hard ice, like an ice cube still in the freezer. This is the kind of ice that has typically been studied and used as the basis of glacier flow models and forecasts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new research paper deals with the former, said Iverson, a paper co-author and project supervisor.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The press release is about Iverson\u2019s new paper <\/em>Linear-viscous flow of temperate ice<\/em><\/a>  <\/em>(Schohn et al. 2025). <\/em>(paywalled and too new for my usual paywall-work-arounds). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe paper describes lab experiments and the resulting data that suggest a standard value within the \u201cempirical foundation of glacier flow modeling\u201d \u2013 an equation known as Glen\u2019s flow law, named after the late John W. Glen, a British ice physicist \u2013 should be changed for temperate ice.   \u2026.   The new value when used in the flow law \u201cwill tend to predict increases in flow velocity that are much smaller in response to increased stresses caused by ice sheet shrinkage as the climate warms,\u201d Iverson said. That would mean models will show less glacier flow into oceans and project less sea-level rise.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much less?  Can\u2019t read the paper, so I don\u2019t know.    [If anyone has access to the paper here<\/a>, I\u2019d love a copy].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here is Iverson\u2019s sketch of the experimental equipment which was all contained in a temperature-controlled freezer:<\/font><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The press release further states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cResetting n to 1.0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Glen\u2019s flow law is written as: <\/em>\u03b5 \u0307 = A\u03c4n<\/sup>.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The equation relates the stress on ice, \u03c4, to its rate of deformation, <\/em>\u03b5 \u0307<\/em>, where A is a constant for a particular ice temperature. Results of the new experiments show that the value of the stress exponent, <\/em>n<\/em>, is 1.0 rather than the usually assigned value of 3 or 4.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors wrote, \u201cFor generations, based on Glen\u2019s original experiments and many subsequent experiments mostly on cold ice (-2 degrees C and colder), the value of the stress exponent n in models has been taken to be 3.0.\u201d (They also wrote that other studies of the \u201ccold ice of ice sheets\u201d have placed <\/em>n<\/em> higher yet, at 4.0.)\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of us might want to check the Wiki for an explanation of Glen\u2019s Flow Law.<\/em><\/a>  <\/em> The key is that the exponent n<\/em> is just that, an exponent and not a mere multiplier.  <\/em>Thus, the call to re-set that exponent to \u201c1\u201d makes a rather huge difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bottom Line:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

New research shows temperate glacier ice flows more steadily, linearly and not exponentially,  contrary to our previous understanding,  and this leads to far lower projections of future sea-level rise due to any glacier melt in Greenland and Antarctica.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019 Comment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have to admire a group that spends ten years, working through all the failures and development, to discover something closer to the real-world truth about something as hard to measure as \u201cglacier ice flow\u201d \u2013 the flow of ice under tremendous pressures \u2013 and the melting that takes place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hopefully, we will see the findings translated into better, more reasonable and less hysterical projections of future sea level rise that might result from the melting of the glacier ice of Greenland and Antarctica. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comments meant for me should begin with \u201cKip\u2014\u201c or some such. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I can be reached by email at my first name at the domain i4.net.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Antarctic ice melt has been an ongoing scientific controversy for more than a decade. Oddly, the warring parties are all at the same U.S. Federal Agency. The war, which involved salvos of papers between the NASA’s GRACE Ice Mass team and H. Jay Zwally and his team.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":362538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691830354,691820093],"class_list":{"0":"post-362535","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-greenland-ice-sheet-gis","9":"tag-sea-level","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0risk-rising-sea-levels-1.jpg?fit=2010%2C1444&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1wjl","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":398970,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=398970","url_meta":{"origin":362535,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, CBS and Other Media Outlets, Abrupt Antarctic \u201cClimate Shifts\u201d Are Not New or Necessarily Catastrophic","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent CBS News article, \u201cAbrupt Antarctic climate shifts could lead to \u2018catastrophic consequences for generations,\u2019 experts warn,\u201d claims that Antarctica is on the brink of irreversible collapse due to climate change, warning that sea levels could rise by meters and that \u201ccatastrophic consequences for generations\u201d are looming. 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