{"id":361093,"date":"2025-01-09T08:35:24","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T07:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=361093"},"modified":"2025-01-09T08:35:27","modified_gmt":"2025-01-09T07:35:27","slug":"volcanic-rumblings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=361093","title":{"rendered":"Volcanic Rumblings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"413\" data-attachment-id=\"361106\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=361106\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?fit=1500%2C857&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1500,857\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?fit=723%2C413&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?resize=723%2C413&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-361106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?resize=1024%2C585&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?resize=300%2C171&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?resize=768%2C439&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?resize=1200%2C686&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?w=1500&amp;ssl=1 1500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/01\/07\/volcanic-ruminations\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Guest Post by<\/em><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/author\/weschenbach\/\">Willis Eschenbach<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I noticed that WUWT has a recent post about an interesting study that has identified the mystery huge volcanic eruption in 1831. Turns out that it comes from a volcano named Zavaritskii on an island in the Northwest Pacific between Japan and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-watts-up-with-that wp-block-embed-watts-up-with-that\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"yW8xKbJYgB\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/01\/05\/mystery-volcano-that-lowered-global-temperatures-nearly-2-degrees-fahrenheit-in-1831-identified\/\">\u2018Mystery Volcano\u2019 that Lowered Global Temperatures Nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit in 1831 Identified<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;\u2018Mystery Volcano\u2019 that Lowered Global Temperatures Nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit in 1831 Identified&#8221; &#8212; Watts Up With That?\" src=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/01\/05\/mystery-volcano-that-lowered-global-temperatures-nearly-2-degrees-fahrenheit-in-1831-identified\/embed\/#?secret=fR1R3dtStN#?secret=yW8xKbJYgB\" data-secret=\"yW8xKbJYgB\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s an impressive scientific achievement, and the authors deserve recognition for solving such a long-standing puzzle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, I busted out laughing when I read the underlying study in PNAS, entitled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2416699122\">The 1831 CE mystery eruption identified as Zavaritskii caldera, Simushir Island (Kurils)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What made me laugh was their claim that the volcano caused a global temperature to drop of 1\u00b0C (1.8\u00b0F, aka \u201cNearly Two\u201d). I\u2019ve looked at lots of volcanic eruptions. There are links to my research on eruptions and temperature\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2018\/01\/20\/a-new-index-to-williss-posts\/#072\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>. I have found that there is no consistent response in the global average surface temperature. I thought\u00a0<em>\u201cThis should be interesting\u201d<\/em>. I looked at the study to see what evidence they have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They use the Berkeley Earth land-only temperature data to verify their claim \u2026 the problem is that even using their methods, the Berkeley data doesn\u2019t support their claim. The image and the caption in Figure 1 below are from their study.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"686\" height=\"333\" data-attachment-id=\"361096\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=361096\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-270.png?fit=686%2C333&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"686,333\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-270.png?fit=686%2C333&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-270.png?resize=686%2C333&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-361096\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-270.png?w=686&amp;ssl=1 686w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-270.png?resize=300%2C146&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 686px) 100vw, 686px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Figure 1. ORIGINAL CAPTION: Figure S1:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em>Time series of instrumental temperature anomalies spanning 1790\u20131840 CE. The period 1831\u20131833 CE is shaded grey. Instrumental temperature records are from Berkeley Earth [www.berkeleyearth.org, (8)] and show estimated global land average temperatures. These represent annual temperature anomalies relative to the 1790\u20131807 CE mean (a period without major volcanic eruptions).<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Squint as I might at Figure 1, I\u2019m not seeing the 1\u00b0C temperature drop post-1831. Not even close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Plus, the Berkeley data is monthly, but they\u2019re using annual averages. This is throwing away a bunch of valuable data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, I decided to take a proper look at the temperature record of all the major volcanic eruptions for the last two centuries. This eruption information is kept by the Smithsonian Institute in their\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/volcano.si.edu\/\">Volcanoes of the World\u00a0<\/a>database. I used only the largest volcanoes, those with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 or more. Here\u2019s that record, compared to the same Berkeley Earth temperature dataset used in their study.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"719\" height=\"654\" data-attachment-id=\"361098\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=361098\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-272.png?fit=719%2C654&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"719,654\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-272.png?fit=719%2C654&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-272.png?resize=719%2C654&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-361098\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-272.png?w=719&amp;ssl=1 719w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-272.png?resize=300%2C273&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 719px) 100vw, 719px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 2. Large volcanic eruptions and the Berkeley Earth global monthly land surface temperature anomaly record.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s the curious part. Of these 7 large volcanoes, there\u2019s only one that is followed by a clear drop in temperature. That one is Pinatubo, the poster child for the claim that eruptions affect global average surface temperatures. All the rest of these big volcanoes show nothing anomalous. Even the two biggest eruptions, Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883, were not followed by global cooling in the Berkeley Earth record. Temperatures actually rose after each of those eruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyhow \u2026 that\u2019s why I laughed when they said they\u2019d found a 1\u00b0C (1.8\u00b0F) cooling resulting from the 1831 volcano. I didn\u2019t even have to look at the record above to know the chances were small that a large effect would be visible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And in the event, Figure 2 shows the Zavaritskii volcano occurred halfway through a cooling period, and the cooling post-volcano and pre-volcano are indistinguishable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I say that this lack of temperature response to eruptions is explained by my hypothesis that a variety of&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2013\/02\/07\/emergent-climate-phenomena\/\">emergent phenomena&nbsp;<\/a>work to thermoregulate the earth\u2019s temperature. In particular, when temperatures fall due to say eruptions injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, the climate responds inter alia by cumulus cloud fields and thunderstorms forming later in the day. This allows more sunshine to be absorbed by the surface, which opposes the volcanic cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a different look at this question of temperature changes due to eruptions, I took a look at the UAH MSU satellite-based atmospheric records. Figure 3 shows eruptions and the temperatures at four different atmospheric levels from the top down\u2014stratosphere, tropopause, middle troposphere, and lower troposphere.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"664\" data-attachment-id=\"361100\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=361100\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-273.png?fit=772%2C709&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"772,709\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-273.png?fit=723%2C664&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-273.png?resize=723%2C664&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-361100\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-273.png?w=772&amp;ssl=1 772w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-273.png?resize=300%2C276&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-273.png?resize=768%2C705&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 3. UAH MSU satellite-based atmospheric temperature anomalies, in order of altitude from highest (top panel) down to lowest (bottom panel). Red lines show the dates of eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 5 or more. Numbers following the names show the VEI of the eruption.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, this shows the curious nature of the atmosphere\u2014there is very little correlation between stratospheric temperature anomalies (top panel) and the rest of the lower atmosphere (lower three panels). There are clear indications of the 1982 and 1991 volcanoes in the stratosphere \u2026 but by the time that works its way down to the lower troposphere, the situation is quite different. There, only the Pinatubo\/Cerro Hudson pair shows a temperature drop following the eruption, and even that is not visibly different from a number of other temperature drops during the period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And by the time the effect of the eruption-injected stratospheric aerosols makes it down to the surface, we get Figure 4.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"664\" data-attachment-id=\"361103\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=361103\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-275.png?fit=772%2C709&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"772,709\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-275.png?fit=723%2C664&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-275.png?resize=723%2C664&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-361103\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-275.png?w=772&amp;ssl=1 772w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-275.png?resize=300%2C276&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-275.png?resize=768%2C705&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 4. A closeup of the recent end of the data shown in Figure 2, with additional eruptions. Vertical red lines show VEI 5 and VEI 6 volcanic eruptions during the satellite era along with the Berkeley Earth global monthly land surface temperature record.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the Mount St. Helens eruption caused the subsequent cooling, did the El Chichon eruption cause the subsequent warming? Once again we see the ~0.5\u00b0C temperature drop after Pinatubo, but other than that, there\u2019s no clear indication that eruptions affect the global average surface temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, I know that this goes against the revealed wisdom. That wisdom says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Eruption \u2013&gt; Stratospheric SO2 Aerosols \u2013&gt; Increased Albedo \u2013&gt; Less Sunlight \u2013&gt; More Cooling<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sounds logical, but it ignores the fact that the climate is a dynamic system that is constantly changing and adapting to a variety of forcings and factors. The revealed wisdom stops too soon. I say it goes like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Eruption \u2013&gt; Stratospheric SO2 Aerosols \u2013&gt; Increased Albedo \u2013&gt; Less Sunlight \u2013&gt; Cooling \u2013&gt; Delayed Formation Of Daily Tropical Cumulus Cloud Fields \u2013&gt; Decreased Albedo \u2013&gt; More Sunlight \u2013&gt; Less Cooling<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">plus<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Eruption \u2013&gt; Stratospheric SO2 Aerosols \u2013&gt; Increased Albedo \u2013&gt; Less Sunlight \u2013&gt; Cooling \u2013&gt; Delayed- or Non-Emergence Of Daily Tropical Thunderstorm Formation \u2013&gt; Decreased&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2013\/03\/11\/air-conditioning-nairobi-refrigerating-the-planet\/\">Thunderstorm Cooling<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013&gt; Less Cooling<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both of these emergent phenomena, the daily appearance of sunlight-reflecting tropical cumulus cloud fields and cooling thunderstorms, work to oppose the cooling action of the volcanic stratospheric aerosols, and to prevent large swings in the global surface temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I provide interesting evidence for this hypothesis in my post below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-watts-up-with-that wp-block-embed-watts-up-with-that\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"IYXrq5f08q\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2018\/05\/29\/when-eruptions-dont\/\">When Eruptions Don&#8217;t<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;When Eruptions Don&#8217;t&#8221; &#8212; Watts Up With That?\" src=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2018\/05\/29\/when-eruptions-dont\/embed\/#?secret=snjum8FUkD#?secret=IYXrq5f08q\" data-secret=\"IYXrq5f08q\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sunshine here today, thin, but sunshine nonetheless. I\u2019m going for a walk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My warmest regards to everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AS ALWAYS<\/strong>, I ask that you quote the exact words you are discussing. This keeps misunderstandings to a minimum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FURTHER READING:<\/strong>&nbsp;In the post below, I use the \u201cstacking\u201d method to compare the temperature response after volcanic eruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-watts-up-with-that wp-block-embed-watts-up-with-that\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"3WQ3gBVooE\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2015\/07\/22\/volcanic-legends-keep-erupting\/\">Volcanic Legends Keep Erupting<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Volcanic Legends Keep Erupting&#8221; &#8212; Watts Up With That?\" src=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2015\/07\/22\/volcanic-legends-keep-erupting\/embed\/#?secret=CSQNJNVn0n#?secret=3WQ3gBVooE\" data-secret=\"3WQ3gBVooE\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What made me laugh was their claim that the volcano caused a global temperature to drop of 1\u00b0C (1.8\u00b0F, aka \u201cNearly Two\u201d). I\u2019ve looked at lots of volcanic eruptions. There are links to my research on eruptions and temperature\u00a0here. I have found that there is no consistent response in the global average surface temperature. I thought\u00a0\u201cThis should be interesting\u201d. I looked at the study to see what evidence they have.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":361106,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691832522,691832520,691832521,691818448],"class_list":{"0":"post-361093","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-1c-1-8f-cooling","9":"tag-global-temperature-to-drop","10":"tag-volcanic-explosivity-index","11":"tag-volcanoes","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0la-montagna-in-eruzione-vomita-cenere-infuocata-nel-cielo-generata-dall-intelligenza-artificiale.webp?fit=1500%2C857&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1vW5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":391001,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=391001","url_meta":{"origin":361093,"position":0},"title":"The Warming Of 2023 Was Due To Natural Causes, Not Man-Made","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/27\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"We remember: by mid-2023, the data on global temperatures had shown a very marked increase. It had gotten warmer globally quite quickly, by an incredible 0.5\u00b0C compared to 2022. This led to a new record for the year being announced in 2024. The German public television\u00a0Tagesschau\u00a0(and many other media) did\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Catastrophe\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Catastrophe","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-catastrophe"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":263868,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263868","url_meta":{"origin":361093,"position":1},"title":"Effect of volcanic eruptions significantly underestimated in climate projections, study shows","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/25\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Researchers have found that the cooling effect that volcanic eruptions have on Earth's surface temperature is likely underestimated by a factor of two, and potentially as much as a factor of four, in standard climate projections.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate projections\"","block_context":{"text":"climate projections","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-projections"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/05320033-1280_535918785-1137261_l.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/05320033-1280_535918785-1137261_l.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/05320033-1280_535918785-1137261_l.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/05320033-1280_535918785-1137261_l.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/05320033-1280_535918785-1137261_l.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":388635,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=388635","url_meta":{"origin":361093,"position":2},"title":"Voodoo-science strikes again: Climate change is awakening volcanoes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/14\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"If ever you have doubts that we are merely 3 genes away* from being mammoth hunting tribes of prophets and bone pointing shamen, look no further than modern captive science. These nice geochemists haven\u2019t even published a paper yet, but five minutes after giving a speech at a conference, it\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":341001,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341001","url_meta":{"origin":361093,"position":3},"title":"Greta versus the volcano","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/29\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"As America\u2019s \u201cgreenest\u201d President (Joe Biden) fades into the sunset, one is reminded of the 1990 Tom Hanks blockbuster Joe Versus the Volcano. Our salvation may be near. In the movie, Joe Banks (Hanks) is told by a doctor he is dying. He is then duped by an unscrupulous billionaire\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Global cooling\"","block_context":{"text":"Global cooling","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=global-cooling"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0the-greta-plan-has-backfired-with-young-conservatives-for-now.jpg?fit=1200%2C723&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0the-greta-plan-has-backfired-with-young-conservatives-for-now.jpg?fit=1200%2C723&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0the-greta-plan-has-backfired-with-young-conservatives-for-now.jpg?fit=1200%2C723&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0the-greta-plan-has-backfired-with-young-conservatives-for-now.jpg?fit=1200%2C723&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0the-greta-plan-has-backfired-with-young-conservatives-for-now.jpg?fit=1200%2C723&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":255767,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255767","url_meta":{"origin":361093,"position":4},"title":"Little Ice Age Warming Recovery May be Over 2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This suggests that humans and the biosphere were enhanced by a warming process that has ended. The solar cycles are again going quiet and are forecast to continue that way.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarm\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarm","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarm"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":312717,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312717","url_meta":{"origin":361093,"position":5},"title":"The extraordinary climate events of 2022-24","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/25\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The unlikely volcano, the warmest year, and the collapse of the polar vortex.","rel":"","context":"In \"collapse of the polar vortex\"","block_context":{"text":"collapse of the polar vortex","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=collapse-of-the-polar-vortex"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0DMAUHMAWHJOOVJQXJPFJ5GINMM.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=361093"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361093\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":361108,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/361093\/revisions\/361108"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/361106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=361093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=361093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=361093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}