{"id":358490,"date":"2024-12-24T09:42:18","date_gmt":"2024-12-24T08:42:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=358490"},"modified":"2024-12-24T09:42:21","modified_gmt":"2024-12-24T08:42:21","slug":"new-study-the-warming-trend-since-2013-explained-by-increases-in-absorbed-solar-radiation-not-co2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=358490","title":{"rendered":"New Study: The Warming Trend Since 2013 Explained by Increases in Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not CO2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2013-2022 warming trend and the extreme warmth in 2023 were \u201cnot associated with\u201d declining outgoing longwave radiation induced by rising greenhouse gases.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Instead, a\u00a0new study<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0published in the journal\u00a0Science<\/em>\u00a0contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W\/m\u00b2\/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively), explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth\u2019s surface, warming it.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A rising trend in anthropogenic greenhouse gases was supposed to reduce the Earth\u2019s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and a declining OLR was thought to be the<\/em> driver of modern warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, the opposite has occurred. There has been an increasing OLR trend since 2013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This enhancement of the Earth\u2019s OLR trend actually serves to counteract the ASR-induced warming strongly associated with the aforementioned declining cloud cover albedo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the total greenhouse effect impact from rising greenhouse gases has recently been contributing to a reduction<\/em> in global warming, partially offsetting the warming induced by rising ASR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe EEI trend and 2023 peak are not associated with decreasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as one would expect from increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the absence of shortwave feedbacks. Instead, OLR has been increasing and largely offsetting even stronger absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomalies, consistent with climate models. The decadal 2013\u20132022 trend in ASR amounts to +1.10 W\/m\u00b2\/dec\u22121 in CERES and +0.97 W\/m\u00b2\/dec\u22121 in ERA5, reaching astonishing anomalies of +1.82 W\/m\u00b2 in CERES and +1.31 W\/m\u00b2 in ERA5 in 2023. Variations of incident solar radiation (ISR), including by the 11-year solar cycle, are an order of magnitude smaller, implying that reduced planetary albedo is the dominant cause. It is however striking that, according to CERES, ISR attained a positive anomaly in 2023 of +0.28 W\/m\u00b2, well above the previous solar-cycle maximum, whereas ERA5 forcing still assumed a negative anomaly of -0.08 W\/m\u00b2.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Goessling et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Instead, a\u00a0new study\u00a0published in the journal\u00a0Science\u00a0contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W\/m\u00b2\/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively), explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth\u2019s surface, warming it.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":358494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691832267,691818087,691832054,691820367],"class_list":{"0":"post-358490","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","9":"tag-cloud-albedo","10":"tag-global-warming","11":"tag-outgoing-longwave-radiation-olr-2","12":"tag-solar-radiation","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=2067%2C923&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1vg6","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":179464,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=179464","url_meta":{"origin":358490,"position":0},"title":"New Study: Absorbed Solar Radiation Increased From 1998-2017\u2026Explaining Ocean Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/12\/2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The net climate forcing from albedo changes can account for the increase in ocean heat content in recent decades. Scientists (Goode et al., 2021) have determined Earth\u2019s albedo declined from 1998-2017, driving a +0.5 W\/m\u00b2 net increase in absorbed solar radiation, a positive energy imbalance. Image Source:\u00a0Goode et al., 2021\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/0Wong-and-Minnett-2018-CO2-varies-top-0.01-mm.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/0Wong-and-Minnett-2018-CO2-varies-top-0.01-mm.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/0Wong-and-Minnett-2018-CO2-varies-top-0.01-mm.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/0Wong-and-Minnett-2018-CO2-varies-top-0.01-mm.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340498","url_meta":{"origin":358490,"position":1},"title":"\u00a0Scientists: 100% Of 2000-2023 Warming Explained By Solar Forcing\u2026Human Climate Forcing \u2018Does Not Exist In Reality\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A new, observation-based study makes extensive use of satellite data (CERES) to quantify the driving mechanism behind the global surface air temperature (GSAT) warming throughout the first 24 years of the 21st century.","rel":"","context":"In \"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]\"","block_context":{"text":"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=eei-earths-energy-imbalance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342670,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342670","url_meta":{"origin":358490,"position":2},"title":"Satellite Observations Confirm 2000-\u201922 Warming Has Been Due To An Increasing Solar Radiation Trend","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has been declining since 2000. 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