{"id":357864,"date":"2024-12-22T10:35:05","date_gmt":"2024-12-22T09:35:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=357864"},"modified":"2024-12-22T10:35:08","modified_gmt":"2024-12-22T09:35:08","slug":"ocean-temperatures-and-climate-hysteria-a-lesson-in-perspective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=357864","title":{"rendered":"Ocean Temperatures and Climate Hysteria: A Lesson in Perspective"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the past two years, headlines, policy statements, and social media feeds have been flooded with dire warnings about rising ocean temperatures. Every uptick in the graphs was treated as irrefutable proof of humanity\u2019s march toward ecological collapse. The news cycle offered little room for nuance, and as usual, the loudest voices declared the end was nigh. But a recent tweet from Javier Vi\u00f1os, supported by a graph of global sea surface temperatures (SST), reminds us how quickly climate \u201cemergencies\u201d dissolve when confronted with even the faintest hint of natural variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/x.com\/JVinos_Climate\/status\/1869655299923337341<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u00f1os\u2019s tweet is remarkable in its simplicity and restraint. For the first time in 21 months, global ocean temperatures have returned to levels seen in December 2015\u2014nine years ago. Let that sink in for a moment. After two years of being bombarded with claims that the Earth\u2019s oceans were on an unstoppable trajectory of warming, we find ourselves\u2026 back where we were nearly a decade ago. The graph he shared makes this clear, showing the average SST dipping out of the \u201canomalous\u201d zone, contradicting two years\u2019 worth of sensational headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the Data Shows<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The chart, which aggregates SST data from NOAA and the University of Maine\u2019s Climate Change Institute, plots daily SST readings from 60\u00b0S to 60\u00b0N, covering a broad swath of the Earth\u2019s oceans. The most striking feature is the orange 2023 line that shows pronounced warmth\u2014well above the 1991\u20132020 baseline average\u2014before gradually declining. The 2024 data (dark red) follow suit, steadily falling back to levels not seen since 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u00f1os describes this trend as part of \u201cpoorly understood natural climate variability,\u201d a phrase that should be plastered across every climate model and policymaker\u2019s desk. The graph itself illustrates this beautifully: the chaotic, squiggling lines of each year reveal the natural ups and downs of ocean temperatures, starkly contrasting the prevailing narrative that climate change operates on a simple linear trajectory of doom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Last Two Years of Hyperbole<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, the narrative around ocean temperatures reached fever pitch. Every spike in temperature was portrayed as an existential crisis. Headlines screamed about unprecedented oceanic heatwaves, ecosystems pushed to the brink, and melting polar ice accelerating sea-level rise. Phrases like \u201coff the charts\u201d and \u201cnew normal\u201d were thrown around with reckless abandon.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Yet here we are, with the average SST plummeting back to levels seen nearly a decade ago. What does this tell us? That ocean temperatures fluctuate. That long-term trends are more complicated than the alarmists would have you believe. And perhaps most importantly, that the overconfidence in computer models and the myopic focus on short-term anomalies is profoundly misplaced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Misunderstanding Natural Variability<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u00f1os\u2019s choice of words\u2014\u201cpoorly understood natural climate variability\u201d\u2014cuts to the heart of the issue. Despite decades of research and countless billions of dollars spent, the science of climate variability remains riddled with uncertainties. Climate models struggle to replicate observed phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take 2023\u2019s anomalous warmth, for example. It coincided with a strong El Ni\u00f1o event, which naturally warms surface waters in the Pacific and influences global weather patterns. While the media pounced on this as evidence of human-caused warming, a significant portion of it was likely due to this entirely natural phenomenon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the complexities of ocean-atmosphere interactions, deep-sea currents, and solar variability are still poorly understood. As a result, the idea that we can attribute every blip on the graph to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is not just simplistic\u2014it\u2019s scientifically irresponsible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Danger of Overreaction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The problem with climate hyperbole is not just that it\u2019s wrong, but that it leads to bad policy. Over the past two years, nations have doubled down on costly decarbonization efforts, citing \u201cunprecedented\u201d ocean temperatures as justification. Policies like Net Zero, which aim to eliminate fossil fuel use entirely, have disrupted energy markets, driven inflation, and plunged millions into energy poverty\u2014all in the name of \u201csaving the planet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what if this episode of warming was primarily natural in origin? What if the 2023 temperature spike was just another bump in the chaotic rhythm of natural variability? The billions spent on \u201cfixing\u201d the climate would then amount to a colossal waste, solving a problem that doesn\u2019t exist or was never fully understood in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lessons for the Future<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u00f1os\u2019s tweet and the accompanying data highlight the need for humility in climate science and policymaking. The complex interplay of factors that influence ocean temperatures defies simplistic explanations and linear trends. Instead of rushing to declare every fluctuation a crisis, we should acknowledge the vast uncertainties that still exist and adopt a more measured approach to both science and policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers would do well to remember the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Natural variability is not a bug; it\u2019s a feature<\/strong>\u00a0of the Earth\u2019s climate system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Short-term trends do not equal long-term trajectories.<\/strong>\u00a0Two years of anomalous temperatures do not prove climate catastrophe, just as this return to 2015 levels doesn\u2019t disprove it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Correlation is not causation.<\/strong>\u00a0Just because temperatures are higher doesn\u2019t mean human activity is the sole\u2014or even primary\u2014cause.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Precautionary policies are not free.<\/strong>\u00a0When governments pursue drastic measures like Net Zero without understanding the full picture, the economic and social consequences can be severe.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Conclusion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    The graph shared by Javier Vi\u00f1os should serve as a wake-up call for anyone who\u2019s been swept up in the climate hysteria of the past two years. While it\u2019s tempting to view every uptick in temperature as evidence of impending doom, the reality is far more nuanced. Ocean temperatures are now back to levels seen in 2015, a stark reminder of the chaotic, unpredictable nature of the climate system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the end, the greatest threat to rational policy isn\u2019t rising temperatures\u2014it\u2019s the unrelenting tide of hyperbole that drowns out careful analysis and critical thinking. If we truly want to address environment challenges, we must first learn to distinguish between signal and noise. And as this latest data shows, there\u2019s a lot more noise out there than we\u2019ve been led to believe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    For the past two years, headlines, policy statements, and social media feeds have been flooded with dire warnings about rising ocean temperatures. Every uptick in the graphs was treated as irrefutable proof of humanity\u2019s march toward ecological collapse. The news cycle offered little room for nuance, and as usual, the loudest voices declared the end was nigh. But a recent tweet from Javier Vi\u00f1os, supported by a graph of global sea surface temperatures (SST), reminds us how quickly climate \u201cemergencies\u201d dissolve when confronted with even the faintest hint of natural variability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":357875,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818272,691820251,691820968],"class_list":{"0":"post-357864","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-hysteria","9":"tag-ocean-temperatures","10":"tag-sea-surface-temperatures-sst","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02721813.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1v60","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":308233,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=308233","url_meta":{"origin":357864,"position":0},"title":"Collapsing El Ni\u00f1o Spells End to Year-Long Bout of Climate Hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"To be serious, the current strong and natural\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0event is starting to dramatically collapse with critical ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific ocean falling from 2.1\u00b0C above normal in late November to 1.3\u00b0C. The collapse in temperatures is even more dramatic at the sub-surface 300 metre level. In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":359670,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=359670","url_meta":{"origin":357864,"position":1},"title":"Recent Temperature Falls Likely to Put a Dampener on \u2018Hottest Year Evah\u2019 Stories","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stand by for another bout of \u2018Hottest Year Evah\u2019 stories as the mainstream media pursues its campaign to induce mass climate psychosis and prepare the ground for the oncoming Net Zero catastrophe. Alas, enjoy it only a little while longer since this story may have to be retired after putting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Untitled-design-17.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Untitled-design-17.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Untitled-design-17.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Untitled-design-17.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Untitled-design-17.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":383412,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=383412","url_meta":{"origin":357864,"position":2},"title":"Meet T\u00e9a Johansson, Teenage Climate\u00a0Realist","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Today the climate industrial complex is funded by trillions of dollars seeking to control what we buy, eat and where we are allowed to travel, all in the name of sustainability and achieving net zero carbon emissions. This fear campaign is rooted in the belief that we will not look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":391688,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=391688","url_meta":{"origin":357864,"position":3},"title":"July high temperature only 20th warmest since 2000 \u2014 Media silent","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"But I want to use where I live as a classic example of where and when warming is occurring and why using temperatures rather than wet bulbs, or better still saturation mixing ratios, is a faulty climate metric. For wet-bulb temperatures and saturation mixing ratios would point the finger for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Jack-Russell-Terrier-umbrella-beach.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342147,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342147","url_meta":{"origin":357864,"position":4},"title":"UAH August 2024: Most Regions Cooler, Offset by SH Land\u00a0Spike","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean. Each month and year exposes again the growing disconnect between the real world and the Zero Carbon zealots.\u00a0 It is as though the anti-hydrocarbon band wagon hopes to drown out the data contradicting their justification for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0wp4580333.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0wp4580333.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0wp4580333.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0wp4580333.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0wp4580333.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340207,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340207","url_meta":{"origin":357864,"position":5},"title":"UAH July 2024: Little Warming from \u201cHot\u201d July","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean. Each month and year exposes again the growing disconnect between the real world and the Zero Carbon zealots.\u00a0 It is as though the anti-hydrocarbon band wagon hopes to drown out the data contradicting their justification for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"air temperatures\"","block_context":{"text":"air temperatures","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=air-temperatures"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0thumb-1920-692597-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0thumb-1920-692597-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0thumb-1920-692597-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0thumb-1920-692597-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0thumb-1920-692597-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=357864"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357864\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":357876,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357864\/revisions\/357876"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/357875"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=357864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=357864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=357864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}