{"id":354661,"date":"2024-12-16T17:12:40","date_gmt":"2024-12-16T16:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354661"},"modified":"2024-12-16T17:12:42","modified_gmt":"2024-12-16T16:12:42","slug":"antarctic-calving-events-natural-variability-vs-climate-alarmism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354661","title":{"rendered":"Antarctic Calving Events: Natural Variability vs. Climate Alarmism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2024GL112235?campaign=woletoc#main1<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the unrelenting march of climate alarmism, few narratives are as iconic\u2014or as misleading\u2014as those involving massive Antarctic icebergs<\/a>. A recent study published in\u00a0Geophysical Research Letters<\/em>\u00a0by MacKie et al.<\/a>\u00a0challenges this narrative, using nearly half a century of data to dissect the relationship between iceberg calving and climate change. The study presents findings that are not just counterintuitive to the alarmist narrative but outright debunk some of its central claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key Findings: No Upward Trend in Iceberg Calving<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Using Extreme Value Theory (EVT), MacKie and colleagues analyzed 47 years of satellite data to evaluate trends in Antarctic iceberg calving. The results were clear: there has been no upward trend<\/strong> in the size of the largest icebergs calved annually since 1976. As the study states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe risk of experiencing a major calving event has not increased over the last 47 years, which suggests that climate change is not necessarily responsible for the calving of these large icebergs.\u201d\u200b.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is a startling conclusion given the frequent media and activist claims that such events are harbingers of climate doom.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Massive Icebergs: A Natural Phenomenon<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The researchers also addressed the stochastic nature of calving events, emphasizing that these are statistically consistent with natural variability. Historical records, including pre-satellite observations, confirm that large iceberg calving has occurred for centuries, well before modern industrialization:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cHistorical shipboard records suggest that such massive events predate the onset of notable Antarctic ice shelf decline.\u201d\u200b.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the iconic A68 iceberg, which broke off from the Larsen C ice shelf in 2017, was found to be statistically unexceptional when compared to historical records. The real peak in extreme calving occurred between 1986 and 2000, with no discernible link to modern climate trends\u200b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Real Threat: Small Calving Events<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

While the media tends to focus on photogenic giant icebergs, MacKie et al. highlight that the real driver of Antarctic ice mass loss is the cumulative impact of smaller calving events. These smaller events, rather than large-scale catastrophes, appear to be the primary mechanism by which ice shelves thin and destabilize over time. The study explains this phenomenon as \u201cdeath by a thousand cuts,\u201d rather than the dramatic collapses often emphasized in climate rhetoric\u200b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policy Implications: A Reality Check<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The findings carry profound implications for climate policy. If extreme calving events are not linked to climate change but are instead part of natural ice shelf dynamics, this undermines the rationale for many expensive mitigation policies targeting such phenomena. Antarctic ice loss\u2014driven by a mix of small calving events and oceanic conditions\u2014 will not respond meaningfully to misguided reductions in carbon emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, the study acknowledges the limitations of current models in predicting these events. The inherent unpredictability of iceberg calving, coupled with the lack of long-term data, makes it nearly impossible to attribute individual events to human activity. As the study notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cA comprehensive physical model for calving processes is a complicated and as of yet unrealized endeavor in the field of glaciology.\u201d\u200b.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This raises serious questions about the reliability of alarmist projections of future sea-level rise predicated on these uncertain models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion: Science vs. Sensationalism<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

MacKie et al.\u2019s research offers a sober reminder that nature, not humanity, remains the dominant force shaping Antarctica\u2019s ice dynamics. While media outlets and policymakers rush to connect every iceberg and calving event to climate change<\/a>, the data tells a more nuanced story\u2014one of natural variability and long-term cycles. It\u2019s a story that the public deserves to hear, but one that cuts against the grain of the prevailing narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we continue to evaluate the costs and benefits of climate policies, it is imperative to ground our decisions in hard evidence rather than sensational headlines. The icebergs of Antarctica are spectacular, but they are not the smoking guns of climate change that alarmists would have us believe. Instead, they are a testament to the power of natural systems, which operate on timescales and scales far beyond our comprehension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\/T Tom Nelson<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the unrelenting march of climate alarmism, few narratives are as iconic\u2014or as misleading\u2014as those involving massive Antarctic icebergs. A recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters by MacKie et al. challenges this narrative, using nearly half a century of data to dissect the relationship between iceberg calving and climate change. The study presents findings that are not just counterintuitive to the alarmist narrative but outright debunk some of its central claims.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":354664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818328,691832002,691832001],"class_list":["post-354661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-antarctic","tag-antarctic-icebergs","tag-calving-events","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0rs23521_1.1920x768.jpg?fit=1920%2C768&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1ugl","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":365548,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365548","url_meta":{"origin":354661,"position":0},"title":"Massive Antarctic Iceberg Calving Not Caused by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Basically, the villain Climate Change has been shown not to be causing an increase in massive icebergs to calve off the ice shelves of Antarctica. Rather, it seems, from their study, that large icebergs breaking off is part of the perfectly normal and expected behavior of these ice shelves.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/07300c10b0dab14bae5f7b7e06876c076.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/07300c10b0dab14bae5f7b7e06876c076.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/07300c10b0dab14bae5f7b7e06876c076.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/07300c10b0dab14bae5f7b7e06876c076.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/07300c10b0dab14bae5f7b7e06876c076.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":359010,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=359010","url_meta":{"origin":354661,"position":1},"title":"New Study Finds 1970s-Present Antarctic Ice Loss Is \u2018Unexceptional\u2019 And Not Due To \u2018Climate Change\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/27\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The advent of post-1970s \u201cclimate change\u201d and polar amplification due to the rapidly rising trend in human greenhouse gas emissions was supposed to unleash catastrophic ice calving losses and increases in iceberg size throughout the Earth\u2019s cryosphere.","rel":"","context":"In \"2017 Larsen C iceberg\"","block_context":{"text":"2017 Larsen C iceberg","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2017-larsen-c-iceberg"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0f_mo_lon_sqberg_181024__744360.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0f_mo_lon_sqberg_181024__744360.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0f_mo_lon_sqberg_181024__744360.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0f_mo_lon_sqberg_181024__744360.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0f_mo_lon_sqberg_181024__744360.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":357934,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=357934","url_meta":{"origin":354661,"position":2},"title":"Hey Media, remember in 2017 When an Iceberg in Antarctica Freaked You Out? Science now says: \u2018Never Mind\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/22\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In July 2017, CNN and a\u00a0number of other media outlets\u00a0posted stories about iceberg A-68 calving off of Antarctica\u2019s Larsen C Ice Shelf, with CNN suggesting we should be \u201cfreaked out\u201d about it because of climate change. CNN was wrong. It was based on an incomplete understanding of iceberg formation and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Antarctica_Climate_Guterres_ap-2023-11-26.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Antarctica_Climate_Guterres_ap-2023-11-26.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Antarctica_Climate_Guterres_ap-2023-11-26.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Antarctica_Climate_Guterres_ap-2023-11-26.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Antarctica_Climate_Guterres_ap-2023-11-26.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":241812,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=241812","url_meta":{"origin":354661,"position":3},"title":"The Washington Post Gets Iceberg Story Right","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is factually true, and WaPo should be praised for publishing a scientifically-sound article on spectacular natural phenomena without attempts trying to tie it to climate change.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1172.png?fit=1198%2C1183&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1172.png?fit=1198%2C1183&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1172.png?fit=1198%2C1183&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1172.png?fit=1198%2C1183&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1172.png?fit=1198%2C1183&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":333199,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333199","url_meta":{"origin":354661,"position":4},"title":"Redressing Antarctic Glacier\u00a0Porn","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/17\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate alarmists are known to recycle memes to frighten the public into supporting their agenda. The climate news control desk calls the plays and the media fills the air and print with the scare du jour.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Glacier\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Glacier","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-glacier"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":260577,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260577","url_meta":{"origin":354661,"position":5},"title":"Antarctic Ice Shelves Growing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Over the past 50\u00a0years, satellite observations have shown ice shelves collapse, thin, and retreat; however, there are few measurements of the Antarctic-wide change in ice shelf area. Here, we use MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data to measure the change in ice shelf calving front position and area on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Ice Shelves\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Ice Shelves","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-ice-shelves"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corp2401_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corp2401_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corp2401_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corp2401_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corp2401_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=354661"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":354666,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354661\/revisions\/354666"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/354664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=354661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=354661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=354661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}