{"id":354504,"date":"2024-12-15T18:02:55","date_gmt":"2024-12-15T17:02:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354504"},"modified":"2024-12-15T18:02:58","modified_gmt":"2024-12-15T17:02:58","slug":"ipcc-u-turn-as-it-prepares-to-start-blaming-humans-for-bad-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354504","title":{"rendered":"IPCC U-Turn as it Prepares to Start Blaming Humans for Bad Weather"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Chris Morrison<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fears are growing that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could water down or even ditch its current finding that almost all types of extreme weather events have little or no sign of past human involvement, or any going forward to 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The finding in its recent sixth assessment report is a major thorn in the side of alarmists since \u2018extreme\u2019 weather event attribution has recently risen to become the major scare tactic used to promote the Net Zero fantasy. The IPCC finding has been ignored and a large pseudoscience \u2018attribution\u2019 industry has been created within the Green Blob to feed improbable and uncheckable \u2018scientists say\u2019 stories into the mainstream. At a recent \u2018scoping\u2019 meeting to prepare for the IPCC\u2019s seventh assessment report, the press release claimed<\/a>, in direct contradiction of previous work, that a century of burning fossil fuels has resulted in \u201cmore frequent and more intense extreme weather events that have caused increasingly dangerous impacts\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The position on not attributing bad weather directly to anthropogenic causes has been a great credit to the IPCC. It has often faced justifiable criticism in the past that it is a biased body highly selective in the science it highlights. Recent research from Clintel discovered that no less than 42% of its climate scenarios<\/a> used worst-case \u2018pathways\u2019 of highly improbable temperature rises. Its \u2018Summary for Policymakers\u2019 (SPM) is a political document and has to be agreed by politicians from all 195 subscribing countries. Curiously, the IPCC assessment statement that the high-temperature pathway was of \u201clow likelihood\u201d was missing from the more widely-distributed SPM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, the IPCC in its original 1998 remit<\/a> is mandated with acting on an \u201cobjective, open and transparent basis\u201d when investigating human-induced climate change. It is also established that its reports should be \u201cneutral with respect to policy\u201d. All the evidence points to these instructions being often ignored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The distinguished science writer Roger Pielke Jr. sees clear dangers ahead<\/a> noting the comments of the new IPCC Chair Professor Jim Skea at the recent COP 29 in Azerbaijan which he said focused entirely on advocacy<\/a>. \u201cI want to focus most of my remarks on the opportunities \u2013 and indeed the benefits \u2013 of near-term action. But first a few words on urgency,\u201d said Skea. It is not within the IPCC\u2019s mandate to call for action or implore urgency, observes Pielke. \u201cThere are plenty of groups who play that role. There is only one IPCC,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course it has long been observed that the original IPCC remit to investigate human-caused<\/em> climate change leads inevitably to a slanted narrative. It was never on the cards that the IPCC would find humans had a negligible effect on the climate since its existence would be called into question. Twenty-five years later and an elite global political movement funded by almost unlimited subsidies has arisen to capture the commanding heights of economic and social life. It needs the IPCC onside, and the IPCC, and thousands of grant-hungry scientists, need it to survive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looked at in these terms, it is obvious that there will be pressure for the removal of the IPCC\u2019s irritating statement that humans have not been causing much of the weather to get worse. The press release provides further clues about the possible future direction of travel. \u201cImpacts are to intensify with every fraction of additional warming, particularly for the most vulnerable communities, accounting for 3.3-3.6 billion people.\u201d Such precision in some scary numbers \u2013 where do they pull these figures from? For his part, Roger Pielke notes that the statement reads like \u201cboilerplate from any garden-variety climate advocacy group, and not what one would expect from a leading international scientific assessment\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the attribution forces continue to grow. Professor Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the U.K. Met Office and recently appointed as a Special Adviser to the Climate Change Committee, recently said weather can only be attributed once all factors are considered and \u201chuman influence remains the only reasonable mechanism<\/a> driving that change\u201d. Just from these comments it might be understood why the IPCC has held back on attribution. Running a number of opinions about a chaotic, non-linear atmosphere full of complex natural variations through a computer model and concluding humans might be responsible is not science, it is pseudoscience since its findings cannot be checked or falsified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger Pielke is particularly unimpressed with what he calls \u201cweather attribution alchemy\u201d. In his view, attribution science is a form of \u201ctactical science\u201d. Such science serves legal and political ends, and the work is \u201cgenerally promoted via press release\u201d. The IPCC itself has noted that the usefulness and applicability of available extreme weather attribution methods remain \u201csubject to debate\u201d. Unless scientists find a way to turn pseudoscientific opinion into scientific fact, it can only be hoped that the IPCC\u2019s current stand against the attribution industry survives all the debate and political pressure in its forthcoming assessment review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em> Daily Sceptic\u2019s<\/em> Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fears are growing that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could water down or even ditch its current finding that almost all types of extreme weather events have little or no sign of past human involvement, or any going forward to 2100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":354505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823626,691819134,691818153,691819743,691821642,691820151,691818760],"class_list":["post-354504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-attribution-studies","tag-climate-alarmism","tag-climate-models","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-ipcc-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change","tag-the-science","tag-united-nations","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-13-182901.jpeg?fit=1249%2C674&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1udO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":346207,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346207","url_meta":{"origin":354504,"position":0},"title":"Climate Activists Frustrated by IPCC\u2019s Refusal to Link Extreme Weather With Carbon Emissions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last June, the state-reliant BBC reported that human-caused climate change had made U.S. and Mexico heatwaves \u201c35 times more likely\u201d. Nothing out of the ordinary here in mainstream media with everyone from climate comedy turn \u2018Jim\u2019 Dale to UN chief Antonio \u2018Boiling\u2019 Guterres making these types of bizarre attributions.","rel":"","context":"In \"Attribution studies\"","block_context":{"text":"Attribution studies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=attribution-studies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0PVHTHRCMLVH73EK45U6M6IVDKE.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0PVHTHRCMLVH73EK45U6M6IVDKE.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0PVHTHRCMLVH73EK45U6M6IVDKE.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0PVHTHRCMLVH73EK45U6M6IVDKE.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0PVHTHRCMLVH73EK45U6M6IVDKE.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":298264,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298264","url_meta":{"origin":354504,"position":1},"title":"Warm Is Cold and Down Is Up\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Clearly climatists are worried about current cold weather, ironically triggered by the beginning of COP28 coinciding with heavv snow closing airports in Munich, for example. 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The author list for its Chapter 3 \u2014\u00a0Changes in regional climate and extremes, and their causes\u00a0\u2014 suggests strongly that the IPCC will be shifting from its longstanding focus on detection and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cExtreme event attribution\u201d (EEA)\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cExtreme event attribution\u201d (EEA)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=extreme-event-attribution-eea-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":444778,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444778","url_meta":{"origin":354504,"position":4},"title":"IPCC Quietly Buries Its Own Climate Catastrophe Scenarios","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/17\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"This refers to RCP8.5 (from AR5) and its successor SSP5-8.5 (in AR6). These high-end emissions scenarios assumed massive, continued growth in coal use and very high forcing (~8.5 W\/m\u00b2 by 2100), leading to ~3\u20135\u00b0C+ warming by 2100 in many models. 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