{"id":354440,"date":"2024-12-15T08:57:53","date_gmt":"2024-12-15T07:57:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354440"},"modified":"2024-12-15T08:57:56","modified_gmt":"2024-12-15T07:57:56","slug":"climate-science-settled-until-its-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354440","title":{"rendered":"Climate Science\u2014Settled Until It\u2019s Not"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ah, the marvel of modern climate science. For decades, we\u2019ve been reassured that climate models are finely tuned instruments of prediction, capable of telling us what our planet will look like in a hundred years. But every so often, like a plot twist in a mediocre whodunit, we discover a brand-new \u201cgame-changing\u201d variable. Enter methanethiol (MeSH), the newly crowned darling of aerosol cooling over the Southern Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adq2465<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

According to a recent study published in Science Advances<\/em>, MeSH\u2014a sulfur compound previously relegated to obscurity due to its reactivity\u2014is now recognized as a key player in climate cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The discovery shows that emissions of MeSH, derived from marine biological activity, enhance the sulfate aerosol burden by up to 70% over the Southern Ocean. These aerosols scatter sunlight and cool the atmosphere, reducing the radiative bias of climate models in this region. Oh, and this isn\u2019t a minor tweak. We\u2019re talking about a 28% boost in the direct radiative effect of aerosols over a vast area. Oops, missed that one for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ocean-emitted dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a major source of climate-cooling aerosols. However, most of the marine biogenic sulfur cycling is not routed to DMS but to methanethiol (MeSH), another volatile whose reactivity has hitherto hampered measurements. Therefore, the global emissions and climate impact of MeSH remain unexplored. We compiled a database of seawater MeSH concentrations, identified their statistical predictors, and produced monthly fields of global marine MeSH emissions adding to DMS emissions. Implemented into a global chemistry-climate model, MeSH emissions increase the sulfate aerosol burden by 30 to 70% over the Southern Ocean and enhance the aerosol cooling effect while depleting atmospheric oxidants and increasing DMS lifetime and transport. Accounting for MeSH emissions reduces the radiative bias of current climate models in this climatically relevant region.

https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adq2465<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

But let\u2019s not get too hung up on the past. Sure, we\u2019ve been modeling oceanic sulfur emissions for years and conveniently left MeSH out of the equation because, well, nobody thought it was important enough. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) got all the attention. It was the prom queen of sulfur compounds while MeSH lurked in the shadows, its impact obscured by inconvenient analytical challenges. If only we had better tools earlier\u2014or more curiosity. Instead, climate models hummed along, blissfully ignorant of this overachieving sulfur source.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cSettled Science\u201d Myth<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This latest revelation underscores a glaring truth: the so-called \u201csettled science\u201d of climate prediction is about as settled as a house of cards in a windstorm. For years, we\u2019ve been told the models are robust, the predictions reliable. Meanwhile, every few years, another critical factor\u2014like MeSH\u2014emerges, requiring significant recalibration, yet we\u2019re continuously reassured of both the past accuracy and the future reliability of these models, as if such revelations are mere footnotes rather than paradigm shifts. Are these models’ approximations of reality, or are they haphazard guesses dressed up in complex mathematics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study\u2019s authors painstakingly compiled global data on MeSH concentrations, feeding it into a chemistry-climate model to quantify its effects. The results? Not only does MeSH enhance aerosol cooling, but it also extends the lifetime of DMS, amplifying its cooling impact. Essentially, the climate system has been operating with a hidden double feature of sulfur-driven cooling\u2014and we\u2019re just now cluing in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Does This Keep Happening?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps it\u2019s time to acknowledge that climate models, while valuable, are not omniscient. They\u2019re as much about what we don\u2019t know as what we do. MeSH joins a long list of overlooked or misunderstood variables\u2014like cloud microphysics, ocean circulation anomalies, and feedback loops\u2014that fundamentally alter our understanding of Earth\u2019s climate system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this case, the ramifications are clear. The additional cooling effect attributed to MeSH may mean we\u2019ve been overestimating certain warming scenarios. Or perhaps it simply adds another layer of uncertainty to already imprecise projections. Either way, the narrative of \u201csettled science\u201d takes another hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lessons in Humility (or Not)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

To the climate science community: congratulations on this groundbreaking discovery. Truly. But let\u2019s not pretend this is the last time something will crawl out of the data and rewrite the story. The next unconsidered variable might already be lurking, ready to wreak havoc on those supposedly \u201cfinal\u201d IPCC models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To everyone else: remember this the next time you\u2019re told to trust the models without question. They\u2019re useful tools, but they\u2019re only as good as the data and assumptions behind them. And as MeSH has shown, those assumptions have a habit of being incomplete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, here\u2019s to MeSH: an unsung sulfur hero proving once again that \u201csettled science\u201d is more about marketing than reality. What other surprises does climate science have in store? Stay tuned. Or don\u2019t. The climate will keep changing whether we\u2019re ready for it or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ah, the marvel of modern climate science. For decades, we\u2019ve been reassured that climate models are finely tuned instruments of prediction, capable of telling us what our planet will look like in a hundred years. But every so often, like a plot twist in a mediocre whodunit, we discover a brand-new \u201cgame-changing\u201d variable. Enter methanethiol (MeSH), the newly crowned darling of aerosol cooling over the Southern Ocean.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":354444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831968,691818153,691819140,691831969,691831970,691818733],"class_list":{"0":"post-354440","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-aerosol-cooling","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-climate-science","11":"tag-dimethyl-sulfide-dms-i","12":"tag-methanethiol-mesh","13":"tag-southern-ocean","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0shutterstock-204022084.webp?fit=1100%2C734&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1ucM","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":285942,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285942","url_meta":{"origin":354440,"position":0},"title":"New Study: Lower Bound Uncertainty In Aerosol Forcing 10 Times Larger Than 10 Years Of CO2 Forcing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Aerosols, such as airborne wildfire smoke, desert dust, volcanic and pollution particles, affect Earth's climate by reflecting (some also absorb) sunlight. 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