{"id":354286,"date":"2024-12-13T16:25:36","date_gmt":"2024-12-13T15:25:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354286"},"modified":"2024-12-13T16:25:39","modified_gmt":"2024-12-13T15:25:39","slug":"andrew-desslers-strange-optimism-post-election-groping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354286","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Dessler\u2019s Strange Optimism (post-election groping)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bradley Jr.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re pushing fossil fuels at this point, you\u2019re anti-human.\u201d \u2013 Andrew Dessler (2022<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFossil fuels are shredding our democracy.\u201d Andrew Dessler (2024<\/a>)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The recent election should have thrown climate scientist\/alarmist\/activist Andrew Dessler into a funk, even toward self-doubt and need to check his anti-CO2 premises. His all-out exaggeration about a climate emergency was resoundingly rejected by the winning party and abandoned as an important talking point by the losing party<\/a>. [1]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler will not shout (as before) that Americans are dumb and suicidal by rejecting his wise counsel. [2]<\/strong> He will not engage in some flagrant act of defiance like James Hansen getting arrested<\/a> at a coal mine or Peter Kalmus disrupting<\/a> a professional meeting of climate scientists. And, of course, he will not light himself on fire like a few climate crazies<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, Andrew Dessler will lighten his pre-election hyperbole and grasp at a few fibers of optimism. Consider his messaging now versus prior to the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent Alarm<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desser posted two months ago:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

A few days ago, a recent Washington Post article<\/a> highlighted the growing chorus of scientists who increasingly view climate change as an emergency. I count myself among them. What has shifted my perspective?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The short answer was the anomalous warming of the last two years, which, by the way, was not predicted by Dessler, climate models, or other scientists in its specifics. (So much for settled science with the control knob being CO2, not nature.) And wait for things to cool down, which will not receive the headlines if the mainstream media continues its bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Take<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the latest<\/a> from Dessler\u2019s The Climate Brink: The Choice is Ours: Climate Disaster or a Sustainable Future<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In \u201cStop emissions, stop warming: A climate reality check\u201d (December 2, 2024), Dessler looks to a finding of IPCC #6 for hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Stable atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would lead to continued warming, but if carbon dioxide emissions could be eliminated entirely, temperatures would quickly stabilize or even decrease over time.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is very good news<\/em>,\u201d Dessler states (emphasis his), concluding:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The sooner we can get emissions to (net) zero, the sooner we stabilize our climate system. And, as I said in this post<\/a>, we have the technology to largely do that today. Whether we do so or not is a political decision, not a technical or scientific decision.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Net Zero? Baby steps toward that are resulting in the failure of the Paris Climate Accord of 2015, what James Hansen himself called<\/a> a \u2018fraud\u2019 and \u2018fake\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And \u201cwe have the technology to largely do that today\u201d? Sorry, but economics\u2013and elections based on economics\u2013matter, despite Dessler\u2019s pronouncement<\/a> several years ago that \u201cin order to solve the climate problem, the first thing we need to do is ignore the economists.\u201d How\u2019s that from a professor who seems to be more driven by his activism than scholarship and true teaching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carbon Debt?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dessler\u2019s tick of optimism seems counter to the analysis of his colleague Zeke Hausfather, who wrote<\/a> last summer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

We\u2019ve long talked about carbon budgets \u2013 how much emissions are allowable before the world passes various temperature targets. But given that the world is on track to pass the 1.5C target in the coming decade<\/a> and will pass 2C later this century unless we start reducing global emissions soon, the idea of a \u201ccarbon budget\u201d is becoming increasingly outdated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather, its time to start talking about the carbon debt<\/strong>, the amount of carbon that will have to be removed by our children and future generations if we ever want to return to the climate of our past.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In other words, negative<\/em> emissions are necessary now and will be increasingly so in the future with strong growth in oil, natural gas, and coal emissions. And \u201cif we ever want to return to the climate of our past\u201d? That strange Garden of Eden is the stuff of Deep Ecology<\/a>, of a romantic past that was hardly safe or prosperous. I am reminded of this insight from Alex Epstein (The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels<\/em>, pp. 126\u2013127):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The popular climate discussion \u2026 looks at man as a destructive force for climate livability \u2026 because we use fossil fuels. In fact, the truth is the exact opposite; we don\u2019t take a safe climate and make it dangerous; we take a dangerous climate and make it safe. High-energy civilization, not climate, is the driver of climate livability.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Dessler\u2019s tired decades of exaggeration and alarm have been rightfully ignored. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has positive properties that green<\/em> Planet Earth<\/a>. It is not a pollutant<\/a>. High-sensitivity climate models are not demonstrative<\/a>. Incremental warming biased toward night, winter, and high latitude<\/a> has plusses and might even be net beneficial. [3] <\/strong>The saturation effect<\/a> makes anti-CO2 strategies increasingly costly and impotent. And meanwhile, the world adjusts to weather events, normal and extreme, with indispensable, affordable, reliable energies. That is, if climate policy<\/em> does not get into the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong> Dessler wrote<\/a> on the eve of the election: \u201c\u2026 your vote will help decide the planet\u2019s temperature in 2100\u2026. Our climate trajectory is, in the end, largely a political choice \u2014 one shaped directly by voting.\u201d And voters voted for less<\/em> climate exaggeration and more<\/em> affordable energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2] <\/strong>Here is what Angry Andrew posted<\/a> in a dark moment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Hey assholes. We\u2019ve been telling you for decades that this was going to happen if we didn\u2019t reduce greenhouse gas emissions. You didn\u2019t listen and now it\u2019s all happening. We hope you\u2019re happy. Enjoy the heatwaves, intense rainfall, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and many other things, you fucking morons.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

[3]<\/strong> In Dessler\u2019s words<\/a> (in response to my challenge to him on this point): \u201cGlobal warming tends to reduce gradients, so you do get more warming at night, during winter, and at high latitudes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The recent election should have thrown climate scientist\/alarmist\/activist Andrew Dessler into a funk, even toward self-doubt and need to check his anti-CO2 premises. His all-out exaggeration about a climate emergency was resoundingly rejected by the winning party and\u00a0abandoned as an important talking point by the losing party.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":354288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691831936,691818228],"class_list":{"0":"post-354286","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","9":"tag-climate-scientist-alarmist-activist-andrew-dessler","10":"tag-fossil-fuels","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Andrew-Dessler.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1uai","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":208073,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=208073","url_meta":{"origin":354286,"position":0},"title":"Andrew Dessler Cancels Economists from the Climate Debate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By Robert Bradley Jr. \u201cIn order to solve the climate problem, the first thing we need to do is ignore the economists.\u201d \u2013 Andrew Dessler,\u00a0May 14, 2022\u201cIf you\u2019re pushing fossil fuels at this point, you\u2019re anti-human.\u201d \u2013 Dessler,\u00a0June 28, 2022 Andrew Dessler is the alarmist\u2019s alarmist, joining Michael Mann and\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/1a6fb39e237d8708c.png?fit=1146%2C1009&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/1a6fb39e237d8708c.png?fit=1146%2C1009&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/1a6fb39e237d8708c.png?fit=1146%2C1009&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/1a6fb39e237d8708c.png?fit=1146%2C1009&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/1a6fb39e237d8708c.png?fit=1146%2C1009&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":287513,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287513","url_meta":{"origin":354286,"position":1},"title":"\u201cClimate Emergency!\u201d says Andrew Dessler (old vinegar in a new bottle)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"You get the story. Dessler\u2019s alarm is old vinegar in a new bottle. In view of the historical record, his readers should be cautious. From\u00a0Master Resource By Robert Bradley Jr. \u201cA few days ago, a recent\u00a0Washington Post article\u00a0highlighted the growing chorus of scientists who increasingly view climate change as an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Dessler\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Dessler","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-dessler"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-307.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":211621,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=211621","url_meta":{"origin":354286,"position":2},"title":"Climate Scientist Andrew Dessler Proves Renewable Energy is Useless","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Essay by Eric Worrall h\/t Dr. Willie Soon; You would think after spending uncounted trillions on renewables, there should be some evidence of decoupling between electricity prices and the cost of fossil fuel. https:\/\/twitter.com\/AndrewDessler\/status\/1553416812234153985?s=20&t=Wk0fBh4muUL1OKSPLIMa2Q Andrew Dessler\u00a0is the Director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies and the Reta A. Haynes\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-37.png?fit=750%2C519&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-37.png?fit=750%2C519&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-37.png?fit=750%2C519&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-37.png?fit=750%2C519&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":213323,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=213323","url_meta":{"origin":354286,"position":3},"title":"Dessler to Debate \u2018Climate Flat Earther\u2019 Koonin: Why?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Andrew Dessler, a climatologist at Texas A&M University, will have nothing to do with any critic of climate alarm.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-450.png?fit=996%2C498&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":188107,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=188107","url_meta":{"origin":354286,"position":4},"title":"Dessler on the Joe Rogan Experience\u2026Oy!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"And\u2026 https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=wattsupwiththat&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1494103189456658435&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2022%2F02%2F17%2Fdessler-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-oy%2F&sessionId=8ea038c3e8614281335221551bbab95519c4b536&siteScreenName=WattsUpWithThat&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px MasterResource has another excellent article on Dessler\u2019s behavior By Robert Bradley Jr. \u2014 February 17, 2022 [Andrew] Dessler said anyone arguing that the science is too uncertain isn\u2019t arguing from a legitimate position\u2026. \u201c[Koonin]\u2019s a climate flat earther.\u201d (Quoted in Benjamin Thorp,\u00a0October 18, 2021).\u201cDumb arguments\u201d is too harsh?\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":263698,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263698","url_meta":{"origin":354286,"position":5},"title":"Andrew Dessler: The future will be hotter, unless it\u2019s colder.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Andrew Dessler @AndrewDessler Prof of Atmospheric Sciences & climate scientist @ Texas A&M; AGU and AAAS Fellow has been prognosticating on Twitter, talking up a model that predicts another 2C of warming by 2100 (0.25C\/decade, twice the rate 2013-2023).","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Dessler\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Dessler","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-dessler"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Facepalm-2541.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=354286"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354286\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":354289,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354286\/revisions\/354289"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/354288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=354286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=354286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=354286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}