{"id":354072,"date":"2024-12-12T10:26:01","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T09:26:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354072"},"modified":"2024-12-12T10:26:04","modified_gmt":"2024-12-12T09:26:04","slug":"michael-manns-latest-attempts-to-support-the-hockey-stick-graph-arent-even-convincing-alarmists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354072","title":{"rendered":"Michael Mann\u2019s Latest Attempts to Support the \u2018Hockey Stick\u2019 Graph Aren\u2019t Even Convincing Alarmists"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"405\" data-attachment-id=\"354074\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=354074\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?fit=1671%2C935&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1671,935\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0,2024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800\u00d71013\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?fit=723%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?resize=723%2C405&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-354074\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?resize=1024%2C573&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?resize=300%2C168&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?resize=768%2C430&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?resize=1536%2C859&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?resize=1200%2C671&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?w=1671&amp;ssl=1 1671w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2024\/12\/11\/michael-manns-latest-attempts-to-support-the-hockey-stick-graph-arent-even-convincing-alarmists\/#comments\">The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/author\/andrew-sibley\/\">Andrew Sibley<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end, and the global warming believers have been looking for records to ascribe to global warming. According to a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/atlantic-hurricane-season-races-to-finish-within-range-of-predicted-number-of-named-storms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NOAA<\/a>\u00a0news report, the end-of-season flourish of cyclone activity was as predicted, and a record for the period. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/weather\/articles\/cp87g4p73kxo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBC Weather<\/a>\u00a0commented that the activity corresponded with Atlantic Sea surface temperatures (SST) in 2024 being 1\u00b0C above the 30-year average (1991-2020) \u2013 a year which notably began with a warm Pacific\u00a0<em>El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>\u00a0event. Warm sea surface temperatures are of course an important factor in the development of tropical cyclones, but not the only one: for example, weak wind shear in the upper troposphere is also necessary for organised hurricanes to develop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The increase in the North Atlantic Sea surface temperatures is usually considered a feature of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), sometimes referred to as a variability (AMV). However, one notable climate scientist, Michael Mann, has tried to dismiss the AMO by flattening the historic curve so that the warmer ocean and increased hurricane activity becomes attributable to global warming instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The impact of the natural AMO on the climate was briefly discussed in a recent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2024\/02\/21\/what-really-made-2023-a-warm-one\/\">article<\/a>, along with a discussion of other factors such as changes in the\u00a0<em>El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>\u00a0Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic activity and air pollution. The AMO, which is measured between the equator and 70\u00b0N, is arguably more influential on the global climate than ENSO, because of its longer duration. It leads to annualised variation in sea surface temperatures of up to 0.8\u00b0C over a period of about 60 to 80 years. During the 1970s there were fears of the return of an Ice Age as Atlantic Ocean waters cooled. Then from the mid-1990s onwards a recovery in the Atlantic Sea surface temperatures were observed. This correlated with and contributed to the rise of the global warming narrative. The transition from the cold to warm phase of the AMO also occurred at a time when detailed satellite measurements of several climate parameters became available. The AMO index has continued positive since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"400\" data-attachment-id=\"354077\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=354077\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-153.png?fit=867%2C480&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"867,480\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-153.png?fit=723%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-153.png?resize=723%2C400&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-354077\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-153.png?w=867&amp;ssl=1 867w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-153.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-153.png?resize=768%2C425&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation monthly data, with a 12-month moving average (black line) from 1856 to 2022 (NOAA Public Domain)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scientific thought suggests that changes in the AMO are associated with variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (<a href=\"https:\/\/oceanservice.noaa.gov\/facts\/amoc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AMOC<\/a>). This larger scale current, which is part of a global thermohaline circulation (a slow-moving system of ocean currents), initially carries warm surface water northwards from the Caribbean Sea. As the water gathers near Greenland it cools and sinks due to an increase in water density. The very slow current then flows as a deep ocean stream to the South Atlantic, before rising back to the surface and completing the circulation via a northward return flow to the equator. The whole process takes about 1,000 years. (The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2024\/oct\/23\/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AMOC has also been in the news recently because of fears<\/a>&nbsp;it might collapse the Gulf Stream and lead to colder winter weather across the U.K.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comparisons of the AMO index against the lower atmospheric temperature (from Dr. Roy Spencer\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.drroyspencer.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">UAH V6.0 satellite temperature dataset from 1979<\/a>) shows a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2024\/02\/21\/what-really-made-2023-a-warm-one\/\">correlation<\/a>&nbsp;between the two. Given this apparent connection to global temperatures, a number of research papers have tried to put a figure on the actual influence of the AMO upon the climate. A paper by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1212471110\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Tung and Zhou in 2013<\/a>&nbsp;suggested that its influence on global warming was of the order of 40% over a 50-year period, i.e., it explains nearly half of the warming trend. The anthropogenic (human-caused) temperature increase is then given in the paper as less than 0.5\u00b0C over this period.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/2014GL059274\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Chylek&nbsp;<em>et al.<\/em>&nbsp;in 2014<\/a>&nbsp;suggested a slightly lower percentage, arguing that about one third of the warming since 1975 was caused by the AMO. The paper commented that: \u201cThe anthropogenic effects account for about two thirds of the post-1975 global warming with one third being due to the positive phase of the AMO.\u201d So, from this we have an approximate warming contribution from the AMO of 33% to 40% by 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some of the recent global warming then is a feature of the naturally occurring AMO. The AMO is also believed to be a driver of changes to regional weather and climatic conditions in the northern hemisphere, particularly in relation to Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts in Europe and North America,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/ngeo2738\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">loss of sea ice in the Arctic<\/a>, and ice melt on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/judithcurry.com\/2021\/03\/06\/canceling-the-amo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Greenland.<\/a>\u00a0In 2018\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2017GL076210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Li\u00a0<em>et al<\/em>.\u00a0<\/a>commented that: \u201cThe Arctic Sea ice cover has been rapidly declining in the last two decades, concurrent with a shift in the\u2026 (AMO) to its warm phase around 1996\/1997.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"442\" data-attachment-id=\"354078\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=354078\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-154.png?fit=750%2C459&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"750,459\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-154.png?fit=723%2C442&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-154.png?resize=723%2C442&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-354078\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-154.png?w=750&amp;ssl=1 750w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-154.png?resize=300%2C184&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Comparison of the AMO Index against Arctic Sea ice loss (for the month of March only)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">But does the AMO actually exist?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the significance of this oscillation as an explanation for such things as hurricane frequency and the extent of Greenland and Arctic ice, you might think it is inconvenient for the global warming fear narrative \u2014 and you would be right! For this reason, the oscillation has been undermined by at least one leading climate scientist. The AMO was first described by scientists in the 1980s and 1990s; the term \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/michaelmann.net\/content\/rise-and-fall-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation<\/a>\u201d being coined by Michael Mann in 2000. Mann of course is well known for playing a part in the development of the \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/1999GL900070\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hockey <\/a>stick &#8216;global temperature graph, showing a steady historic temperature followed by a recent precipitous rise. The evidence of historical warm periods was removed, which had the effect of making recent global warming look more worrying. Mann, who is Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Centre at Pennsylvania State University, has subsequently tried to deny that the AMO even exists as a natural oscillation. This again has the effect of flattening the historic curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, Mann thinks the oscillation is caused by other factors, especially human activity in recent times, and in 2014&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2014GL059233\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mann in conjunction with colleagues<\/a>&nbsp;produced a paper to make their case. The authors argued that historical changes to Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the past century have been caused primarily by warming greenhouse gases, offset by industrial sulphate aerosols that caused cooling but were subsequently cleaned up. Therefore, the amplitude of the AMO should in fact be considered weaker than previously thought, so that the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.psu.edu\/news\/research\/story\/slowdown-global-warming-fleeting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">true AMO signal<\/a>, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mann\u2019s claims were&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/judithcurry.com\/2014\/05\/19\/critique-of-manns-new-paper-characterizing-the-amo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">criticised by Nic Lewis<\/a>, who pointed out that the goal of the paper was to \u201coverturn the current understanding of the AMO\u201d. Following analysis of the claims and complex mathematical code, Lewis commented that \u201cMann\u2019s case is built on results that do not support his contentions\u201d. He says Mann\u2019s claims are \u201cillusory\u201d, and only superficially compelling. Further, Lewis argues that Mann\u2019s code doesn\u2019t produce the stated results, instead it \u201cproduces different results from those shown in his accepted paper\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.abc5810\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2021 Mann and colleagues<\/a>&nbsp;returned to the question of the AMO, this time looking for the cause of multidecadal changes during the past millennium, prior to industrialisation. The suggestion was that they were driven by volcanic forcing, so that \u201cthere is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system\u201d. Mann commented: \u201cMy co-authors and I have shown that the AMO is very likely an artefact of climate change driven by human forcing in the modern era and natural forcing in pre-industrial times.\u201d He believes this is the final nail in the coffin of the AMO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With a degree of sarcasm&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/judithcurry.com\/2021\/03\/06\/canceling-the-amo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Judith Curry replied<\/a>&nbsp;in a lengthy article on her blog:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wow.&nbsp;In one fell swoop, the pesky problems of the \u2018grand hiatus\u2019 in the mid-20th century, debates over the attribution of 20th century warming and the role of multidecadal internal variability, and the difficulty of attributing the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to [anthropocentric global warming], all go away.&nbsp;Brilliant!&nbsp;Almost as \u2018brilliant\u2019 as the Hockey Stick.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">She does not accept Mann\u2019s anthropogenic and natural aerosol explanation as the main cause of the AMO, pointing to broader discussions and disagreements amongst climate scientists in this area. The complexity of possible causes, which are not well understood, has been ignored, she noted. As well as differences in ocean currents and the global circulation, changes in weather patterns and short-term climate variability also play a part, alongside possible forcing from solar activity and volcanoes. Furthermore, Curry doesn\u2019t think Mann\u2019s analysis is justified because it is reliant upon poor climate models \u201cwhich are inadequate in simulating the AMO\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Curry also sees the bigger picture and issues that are at stake. When differences in phases of the AMO are connected to such things as Atlantic hurricane activity, rates of Greenland ice loss and droughts in Europe and North America, then removal of the oscillation means that attribution falls to manmade climate change instead. Mann even admits in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.psu.edu\/news\/research\/story\/apparent-atlantic-warming-cycle-likely-artifact-climate-forcing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Penn State press release<\/a>&nbsp;that the outcome of his work is to make it easier to attribute increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995 to global warming. And yet leading authorities do not fully agree with Mann: the U.S.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20240730174119\/https:\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/phod\/amo_faq.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)<\/a>&nbsp;still acknowledges the link between the naturally occurring AMO and hurricane activity since the mid-1990s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Attempts to flatten the AMO curve are not convincing, particularly for climate realists. But Mann\u2019s hypothesis is anyway not fully accepted by the wider scientific community. With that in mind it is evident that a good fraction (perhaps one third) of recent global warming is most likely due to the natural multidecadal cycle, thus lowering estimates of climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. The AMO also influences regional changes in the weather and climate, such as Atlantic hurricane activity, rates of Greenland ice loss and Arctic ice cover. Because of this it is difficult to attribute these patterns to anthropogenic global warming. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having enjoyed some mild winters in the U.K. in the last few years, the AMO is now due to transition back to a cold phase sometime within the next 10 years, even if we should be sceptical of claims that the Gulf Stream will collapse. Either way, this is not a good time to abandon energy security by transitioning away from reliable carbon fuels to intermittent solar and wind power requiring expensive backup facilities. Northwest Europe may be facing several decades of colder winters ahead, just as we move towards Net Zero. But are our political rulers paying attention to important details such as this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Andrew Sibley is a semi-retired Chartered Meteorologist with an MSc in Environmental Decision-Making and an MPhil in Theology.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end, and the global warming believers have been looking for records to ascribe to global warming. According to a\u00a0NOAA\u00a0news report, the end-of-season flourish of cyclone activity was as predicted, and a record for the period. The\u00a0BBC Weather\u00a0commented that the activity corresponded with Atlantic Sea surface temperatures (SST) in 2024 being 1\u00b0C above the 30-year average (1991-2020) \u2013 a year which notably began with a warm Pacific\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0event. Warm sea surface temperatures are of course an important factor in the development of tropical cyclones, but not the only one: for example, weak wind shear in the upper troposphere is also necessary for organised hurricanes to develop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":354081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828920,691831918,691819134,691818056,691818215,691829417,691831919,691820151],"class_list":{"0":"post-354072","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo","9":"tag-atlantic-sea-surface-temperatures-sst","10":"tag-climate-alarmism","11":"tag-climate-change","12":"tag-michael-mann","13":"tag-the-atlantic","14":"tag-the-north-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation","15":"tag-the-science","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1671%2C935&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1u6Q","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":380269,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380269","url_meta":{"origin":354072,"position":0},"title":"Musings on the AMO","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"We hear a lot about the AMO, or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. How much does it influence the global mean surface temperature or GMST? Exactly what is the AMO? These are the issues we will discuss. First let\u2019s look at various definitions of the AMO.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":384092,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=384092","url_meta":{"origin":354072,"position":1},"title":"Climate Oscillations 2: The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Western Hemisphere warm pool or the WHWP is an anomaly based on the area of the ocean warmer than 28.5\u00b0C (that is within the 28.5\u00b0C isotherm) and approximately within the rectangular region from 7\u00b0N \u2013 27\u00b0N and 110\u00b0W to 50\u00b0W. This area extends from the eastern North Pacific (west\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-warm-pool-awp"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Juni-2025-20_19_01.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Juni-2025-20_19_01.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Juni-2025-20_19_01.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0ChatGPT-Image-21.-Juni-2025-20_19_01.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":380996,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380996","url_meta":{"origin":354072,"position":2},"title":"The Bray Solar Cycle and AMO","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Trenberth and Shea further criticize the original AMO index as having no physical meaning. While this is true, it is also unbiased and not tainted with unwarranted assumptions about the cause of global warming. In this post we will show that the long-term trend evident in the raw North Atlantic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)\"","block_context":{"text":"AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amo-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":335906,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335906","url_meta":{"origin":354072,"position":3},"title":"Beware how government-sponsored media reports cherry-picked hurricane extremes to push a climate crisis.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"As my local KQED now ignorantly pushes, hurricane Beryl became more dangerous due to climate change. KQED is one of a thousand-plus stations supported by your tax money via the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. CPB receives federal funding from Congress and distributes the vast majority of funds to more than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":339440,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339440","url_meta":{"origin":354072,"position":4},"title":"Pubpeer Comment on our recent paper by the anonymous \u201cPhoma destructiva\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"An anonymous reviewer has written a critique of our recent paper \u201cCarbon Dioxide and a Warming Climate are not problems,\u201d published online May 29, 2024, in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology. In the introduction to his critique, Phoma destructiva writes: \u201cthe authors and their cited sources likely underestimated\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":363728,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363728","url_meta":{"origin":354072,"position":5},"title":"When a Forecast Flops: Post-Hoc Rationalization in Climate Science","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"This misalignment extends to his forecasts. Mann and his team predicted an \u201cextremely active\u201d hurricane season, with a most likely estimate of 33 named storms. Instead, the season produced just 18\u2014or 19 if we generously include a borderline case.\u00a0For perspective, this falls well below Mann\u2019s projected range of 27\u201339 storms.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=354072"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354072\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":354082,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354072\/revisions\/354082"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/354081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=354072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=354072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=354072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}