{"id":353834,"date":"2024-12-10T18:43:28","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T17:43:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353834"},"modified":"2024-12-10T18:43:31","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T17:43:31","slug":"false-premises-for-hague-climate-reparations-hearing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353834","title":{"rendered":"False Premises for Hague Climate Reparations\u00a0Hearing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Public hearings at the International Court of Justice in The Hague on the request for an advisory opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, December 2024 (Photo: International Court of Justice)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After one week of the hearing at International Court of Justice (ICJ) the thrust of the event is clear.\u00a0 It is an attempt to redistribute wealth from nations who developed and prospered from basing their societies on hydrocarbons to other nations who have not done so as successfully.\u00a0 The \u201cvictims\u201d claim compensation because burning hydrocarbons caused global warming which will raise sea levels and flood island nations.\u00a0 This is called \u201cClimate Justice.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The parties, including presumably the judges, take this premise without question, so the whole proceeding is based on PR without scientific foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Recently green campaigners were warning that small Pacific islands would drown as sea levels rose. In 2019 United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres flew all the way to Tuvalu, in the South Pacific, for a Time magazine cover shot. Wearing a suit, he stood up to his thighs in the water behind the headline \u201cOur Sinking Planet.\u201d The accompanying article warned the island\u2014and others like it\u2014would be struck \u201coff the map entirely\u201d by rising sea levels.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Earlier this year, the\u00a0New York Times finally shared<\/strong>\u00a0what it called\u00a0\u201csurprising\u201d climate news:<\/strong>\u00a0Almost\u00a0all atoll islands are stable or increasing in size<\/strong>. In\u00a0fact<\/strong>, scientific literature has\u00a0documented<\/strong>\u00a0this\u00a0for more than a decade<\/strong>. While rising sea levels do erode land, additional sand from old coral is washed up on low-lying shores. Extensive studies have long shown this\u00a0accretion is stronger than climate-caused erosion,<\/strong>\u00a0meaning the land area of Tuvalu and many other small islands is increasing.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

These appeals were made previously by the Maldives and Fiji, who co-hosted the Madrid COP.  But stubborn facts undermine the credibility of the premise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a widely accepted climate view\u2014based on wild speculations<\/strong> from some op\/ed writers and partisan politicians\u2013is that average sea levels are increasing dangerously<\/strong> and rationalize an immediate governmental response. But as we shall demonstrate below, this perspective is simply not accurate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a wide scientific consensus (based on satellite laser altimeter readings since 1993) that the rate of increase in overall sea levels has been approximately .12 inches per year.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To put that increase in perspective, the average sea level nine years from now (in 2029) is likely to be approximately one inch higher than it is now (2020). One inch is roughly the distance from the tip of your finger to the first knuckle. Even by the turn of the next century (in 2100), average ocean levels (at that rate of increase) should be only a foot or so higher than they are at present.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

None of this sounds particularly alarming for the general society and little of it can justify any draconian regulations or costly infrastructure investments<\/strong>. The exception might be for very low- lying ocean communities or for properties (nuclear power plants) that, if flooded, would present a wide-ranging risk to the general population. But even here there is no reason for immediate panic. Since ocean levels are rising in small, discrete marginal increments,<\/strong> private and public decision makers would have reasonable amounts of time to prepare, adjust and invest (in flood abatement measures, etc.) if required.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But are sea levels actually rising at all? Empirical evidence of any substantial increases taken from land-based measurements has been ambiguous.<\/strong> This suggests to some scientists that laser and tidal-based measurements of ocean levels over time have not been particularly accurate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, Professor Niles-Axel Morner<\/strong> (Stockholm University) is infamous in climate circles for arguing\u2013based on his actual study of sea levels in the Fiji Islands\u2013that \u201cthere are no traces of any present rise in sea levels; on the contrary, full stability.\u201d And while Morner\u2019s views are controversial, he has at least supplied peer reviewed empirical evidence<\/strong> to substantiate his nihilist position on the sea-level increase hypothesis.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The world has many important societal problems and only a limited amount of resources<\/strong>\u00a0to address them. What we\u00a0don\u2019t need are overly dramatic climate-change claims that are unsubstantiated<\/strong>\u00a0and arrive attached to expensive public policies that, if enacted, would fundamentally alter the foundations of our economic system.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After one week of the hearing at International Court of Justice (ICJ) the thrust of the event is clear.\u00a0 It is an attempt to redistribute wealth from nations who developed and prospered from basing their societies on hydrocarbons to other nations who have not done so as successfully.\u00a0 The \u201cvictims\u201d claim compensation because burning hydrocarbons caused global warming which will raise sea levels and flood island nations.\u00a0 This is called \u201cClimate Justice.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":353851,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819230,691831895,691831896,691831898,691831897],"class_list":{"0":"post-353834","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-justice","10":"tag-hague-climate-reparations-hearing","11":"tag-international-court-of-justice-icj","12":"tag-maldives-and-fiji","13":"tag-united-nations-secretary-general-antonio-guterres-2","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/05f6323d73a12f58a14e3483f_International-Court-of-Justice.jpg?fit=1080%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1u30","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":353939,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353939","url_meta":{"origin":353834,"position":0},"title":"International Climate Litigation: A Trojan Horse for Global Climate Policy?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In an unprecedented move, 99 countries have convened at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague to seek an advisory opinion on climate change.\u00a0Led by nations like Vanuatu, this legal campaign asks the ICJ to define the obligations of states to combat climate change and protect vulnerable countries.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate activists\"","block_context":{"text":"climate activists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-activists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00caballo-de-troya-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414624,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414624","url_meta":{"origin":353834,"position":1},"title":"The ICJ\u2019s 2025 climate opinion: A gateway to economic hardship and climate lawsuits","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Mid-2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) dropped a 140-page advisory opinion on nations\u2019 and businesses\u2019 obligations concerning climate change. All 15 judges declared it an \u201curgent and existential threat,\u201d mandating that every nation slash CO\u2082 emissions, adapt to disasters like storms, and foot the bill for climate damages.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-25-133854.png?fit=1200%2C885&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-25-133854.png?fit=1200%2C885&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-25-133854.png?fit=1200%2C885&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-UN-Urges-Member-States-to-Support-the-ICJ-Ruling-on-Climate-Change-Obligations.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-UN-Urges-Member-States-to-Support-the-ICJ-Ruling-on-Climate-Change-Obligations.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-UN-Urges-Member-States-to-Support-the-ICJ-Ruling-on-Climate-Change-Obligations.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-UN-Urges-Member-States-to-Support-the-ICJ-Ruling-on-Climate-Change-Obligations.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":250136,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=250136","url_meta":{"origin":353834,"position":3},"title":"Sorry, Vanuatu, Trends Don\u2019t Support Climate Damages Claims in The Hague","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"While Vanuatu claims is it particularly vulnerable to likely impacts of climate change, there are no specific harms it can attribute to human induced climate change.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1229.png?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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(CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Screenshot-2025-07-25-185554.png?fit=1200%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Screenshot-2025-07-25-185554.png?fit=1200%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Screenshot-2025-07-25-185554.png?fit=1200%2C500&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Screenshot-2025-07-25-185554.png?fit=1200%2C500&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0Screenshot-2025-07-25-185554.png?fit=1200%2C500&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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