{"id":353780,"date":"2024-12-10T16:16:25","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T15:16:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353780"},"modified":"2024-12-10T16:16:27","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T15:16:27","slug":"did-fewer-clouds-contribute-to-this-years-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353780","title":{"rendered":"Did Fewer Clouds Contribute to This Year\u2019s Global Warming?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"542\" data-attachment-id=\"353783\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=353783\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=1200%2C899&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,899\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 Hunga Tonga 45\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=723%2C542&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=723%2C542&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-353783\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=1024%2C767&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=768%2C575&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=800%2C600&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2024\/12\/08\/did-fewer-clouds-contribute-to-this-years-global-warming\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Essay by<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/author\/eworrall1\/\">Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some scientists are at a loss to explain the 2024 heat bump, 0.2C above what models predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fewer low-altitude clouds may explain \u2018missing\u2019 0.2C of warming from Earth\u2019s hottest year: study<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By environment reporter&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/peter-de-kruijff\/101581262\">Peter de Kruijff<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/science\/\">ABC Science<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/topic\/weather\">Topic:Weather<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fri 6 Dec<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In short:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fewer-than-expected low-lying clouds has been identified as a potential reason behind mystery global warming in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last year was the hottest on record, reaching 1.45 degrees of warming since pre-industrial times, well over climate predictions of 1.25C of warming for 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s next?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More research is needed to understand why there were fewer clouds and whether drops in cloud cover are tied to global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A drop in the number of low-altitude clouds was behind unexplained warming that contributed to the world\u2019s hottest year on record, a new study suggests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The record-breaking heat of 2023, which saw the planet warm an average 1.45 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial surface temperatures,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2024-04-09\/data-can-t-explain-off-the-charts-heat\/103649190\">took many climate scientists by surprise<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Their closest predictions, which simulated the effects of human-created warming and other known drivers, were around 0.2C lower than observed temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NASA\u2019s Goddard Institute for Space Studies director and climatologist Gavin Schmidt, who was not involved in the study, said the research \u201cgoes some way into explaining the process of recent warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBut we still aren\u2019t able to say why the albedo has been changing so much, and so there is still more to do before we can say what this means going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/science\/2024-12-06\/clouds-climate-change-warming-planetary-albedo\/104680446\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/science\/2024-12-06\/clouds-climate-change-warming-planetary-albedo\/104680446<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study referenced by the article above;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adq7280#con1\">HELGE F.&nbsp;GOESSLING<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adq7280#con2\">THOMAS&nbsp;RACKOW<\/a>&nbsp;AND&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adq7280#con3\">THOMAS&nbsp;JUNG<\/a><br>5 Dec 2024<br><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.adq7280\">DOI: 10.1126\/science.adq7280<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Ni\u00f1o onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.Read more:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adq7280\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adq7280<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is a fairly obvious possible explanation for unusual weather anomalies this year. Note I first heard this prediction from climate scientist&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/tag\/jennifer-marohasy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jennifer Marohasy<\/a>, but I can\u2019t recall if she published a paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5\u2009\u00b0C<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Published:&nbsp;12 January 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01568-2#auth-Stuart-Jenkins-Aff1\">Stuart Jenkins<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01568-2#auth-Chris-Smith-Aff2-Aff3\">Chris Smith<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01568-2#auth-Myles-Allen-Aff1-Aff4\">Myles Allen<\/a>&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01568-2#auth-Roy-Grainger-Aff1\">Roy Grainger<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga\u2013Hunga Ha\u2019apai (HTHH) eruption injected 146\u2009MtH<sub>2<\/sub>O and 0.42\u2009MtSO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0into the stratosphere. This large water vapour perturbation means that HTHH will probably increase the net radiative forcing, unusual for a large volcanic eruption, increasing the chance of the global surface temperature anomaly temporarily exceeding 1.5\u2009\u00b0C over the coming decade. Here we estimate the radiative response to the HTHH eruption and derive the increased risk that the global mean surface temperature anomaly shortly exceeds 1.5\u2009\u00b0C following the eruption. We show that HTHH has a tangible impact of the chance of imminent 1.5\u2009\u00b0C exceedance (increasing the chance of at least one of the next 5\u2009years exceeding 1.5\u2009\u00b0C by 7%), but the level of climate policy ambition, particularly the mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants, dominates the 1.5\u2009\u00b0C exceedance outlook over decadal timescales.Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01568-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-022-01568-2<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The drop in global cloud cover might not be related to Hunga Tonga<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 it could be Hunga Tonga had no impact, and the drop in cloud cover driven by unknown forcings is the culprit. But a prediction of a global temperature bump and unusual weather, followed by a global temperature bump and unusual weather, seems to be one hell of a coincidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If Hunga Tonga is the mystery factor behind the global drop in cloud cover, if one single volcanic eruption can take scientists like Gavin Schmidt by surprise by causing a 0.2C bump in global temperature, natural forcings surely deserve far more attention as potential contributors to global warming. At the very least this is a potent reminder there are still large gaps in our understanding of the global climate system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The other takeaway from the current bump is wild predictions 1.5C of global warming will cause climate disasters has now been demonstrated to be nonsense. If it wasn\u2019t for climate scientists pronouncing the 0.2C rise in temperature, who of us would have noticed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some scientists are at a loss to explain the 2024 heat bump, 0.2C above what models predicted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":353783,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691831886,691831885,691818288,691818087,691821547],"class_list":{"0":"post-353780","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-climate-predictions","10":"tag-earths-hottest-year","11":"tag-global-temperature","12":"tag-global-warming","13":"tag-hunga-tonga-2","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1u28","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":339847,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339847","url_meta":{"origin":353780,"position":0},"title":"\u201cWe should have better answers by now\u201d: Broken Climate Models Can\u2019t even Explain the Recent Warm Bump","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"If climate models can\u2019t even get heat spikes right, what use are they?","rel":"","context":"In \"2023 temperature anomaly\"","block_context":{"text":"2023 temperature anomaly","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023-temperature-anomaly"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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(CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0un-chief-antonio-guterres-declares-after-hottest-july-global-warming-era-over-global-boiling-era-begins.webp?fit=1200%2C677&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0un-chief-antonio-guterres-declares-after-hottest-july-global-warming-era-over-global-boiling-era-begins.webp?fit=1200%2C677&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0un-chief-antonio-guterres-declares-after-hottest-july-global-warming-era-over-global-boiling-era-begins.webp?fit=1200%2C677&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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\"Britain\"","block_context":{"text":"Britain","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=britain"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0-University-of-Reading-Professor-Tells-Everyone-the-World-is-Really-Hot.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0-University-of-Reading-Professor-Tells-Everyone-the-World-is-Really-Hot.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0-University-of-Reading-Professor-Tells-Everyone-the-World-is-Really-Hot.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0-University-of-Reading-Professor-Tells-Everyone-the-World-is-Really-Hot.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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From the Columbia Climate School and the \u201chave you checked the accuracy and placement of thermometers\u201d and the \u201cweather is not climate\u201d departments come this new study that is hilarious in its lameness. 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