{"id":353057,"date":"2024-12-03T11:09:41","date_gmt":"2024-12-03T10:09:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353057"},"modified":"2024-12-03T11:09:44","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T10:09:44","slug":"michael-e-manns-forecast-fiasco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353057","title":{"rendered":"Michael E. Mann\u2019s Forecast Fiasco"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, the 2024 hurricane season has come to an end and we can now close out Michael E. Mann\u2019s forecast\u2014delivering a prediction so spectacularly off-target it could make a dartboard blush. As we previously noted in our post \u201cMichael E. Mann, the Black Knight<\/a>,\u201d he reminds us of the Monty Python character who loses every limb in battle yet stubbornly insists, \u201c\u2019Tis but a scratch!\u201d This time, Mann\u2019s sword of speculative forecasts landed on a projection of\u00a033 named storms<\/strong>\u00a0for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season\u2014\u201d the highest count ever predicted,\u201d as he proudly declared back in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Well, the season has closed, and reality had other plans. Instead of the hurricane Armageddon Mann foresaw, we ended up with a grand total of 18 named storms\u2014a far cry from the 33 he predicted. For perspective, that 18 is just barely above the historical average of 14. And for Mann, whose forecast has been roundly criticized as one of the most inaccurate in recent memory, it\u2019s more like a monument to overconfidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steve Milloy of JunkScience<\/em> summed it up aptly by calling Mann\u2019s prediction<\/a> \u201cthe wrongest count ever predicted.\u201d While that might sound harsh, it\u2019s tough to argue with the numbers. Mann didn\u2019t just miss the bullseye\u2014he missed the entire dartboard and hit the pub wall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s be clear: there\u2019s nothing inherently wrong with making predictions. But when those predictions are presented with the weight of academic authority and serve as fodder for climate alarmism, they deserve scrutiny. Mann\u2019s forecast wasn\u2019t some cautious, probabilistic estimate; it was a bold declaration of climate doom. And when reality came knocking, it left Mann\u2019s claims in shambles. Yet, much like the Monty Python knight, Mann continues to stand in the wreckage of his prediction, defiantly insisting, \u201cI\u2019m invincible!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This isn\u2019t the first time Mann\u2019s claims have faced challenges. His career includes the controversial \u201cHockey Stick\u201d graph, which has been the subject of ongoing debate for decades. While Mann\u2019s defenders argue that his methods were groundbreaking, his critics contend that they relied heavily on selective data and opaque statistical techniques. The 33-storm prediction seems to follow a similar pattern: overselling an extreme scenario to grab headlines, only for the facts to come up far less dramatic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, Mann\u2019s defenders might argue that a lower-than-expected storm count is itself evidence of climate unpredictability or variability. That\u2019s the beauty of these forecasts\u2014they\u2019re often so malleable that no matter what happens, they can be spun to support the broader narrative of a climate crisis. If there had been 33 storms, Mann might have been hailed as a prophet. With 18 storms, he can pivot to discussing how unpredictability is proof of our dangerous climate future. It\u2019s a win-win\u2014for him, at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real issue here isn\u2019t just Mann\u2019s blown forecast; it\u2019s the broader impact of such exaggerated predictions. They feed into the narrative that extreme climate policies\u2014like Net Zero mandates, carbon taxes, and bans on conventional energy\u2014are urgent and necessary. But when those policies are based on flawed or overstated science, the costs fall on ordinary people. Energy prices spike, economic growth slows, and yet the climate models driving these policies continue to falter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what should we take from Mann\u2019s hurricane misfire? First, that bold claims demand bold evidence\u2014and a track record of accuracy to back them up. Second, that predictions are only as useful as their outcomes, and Mann\u2019s hurricane forecast falls squarely into the \u201cnot useful\u201d category. Finally, that science isn\u2019t served by doubling down on failed predictions; it\u2019s served by acknowledging uncertainty and revising approaches when the facts don\u2019t align.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mann\u2019s 2024 hurricane forecast wasn\u2019t the tempest he predicted\u2014it was a storm in a teapot, a phrase that\u2019s been around far longer than Monty Python\u2019s Black Knight but captures the same essence of exaggerated drama leading to anticlimactic reality. Instead of ushering in a new era of catastrophic storms, the season fizzled into an average year that left Mann\u2019s 33-storm prophecy looking more like a footnote in the annals of overblown climate predictions. Perhaps next time, instead of swinging wildly at reality, Mann might consider grounding his forecasts in, well, reality itself. Because when your predictions consistently miss the mark, it\u2019s time to set down the teapot and take a good, hard look at the kettle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Well, the 2024 hurricane season has come to an end and we can now close out Michael E. Mann\u2019s forecast\u2014delivering a prediction so spectacularly off-target it could make a dartboard blush. As we previously noted in our post \u201cMichael E. Mann, the Black Knight,\u201d he reminds us of the Monty Python character who loses every limb in battle yet stubbornly insists, \u201c\u2019Tis but a scratch!\u201d This time, Mann\u2019s sword of speculative forecasts landed on a projection of\u00a033 named storms\u00a0for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season\u2014\u201d the highest count ever predicted,\u201d as he proudly declared back in April.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":353061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831797,691818352,691831798,691831796,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-353057","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-33-named-storms","9":"tag-carbon-taxes","10":"tag-manns-claims","11":"tag-michael-e-manns-forecast","12":"tag-net-zero","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0wp4120746.webp?fit=1366%2C768&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1tQt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":406298,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406298","url_meta":{"origin":353057,"position":0},"title":"Michael Mann\u2019s \u201cFire Hose\u201d of Misinformation: Projection at Its Finest","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In his latest op-ed for the\u00a0San Francisco Chronicle\u00a0\u2014 melodramatically titled\u00a0\u201cI\u2019m a climate scientist. Trump\u2019s U.N. address is a fire hose of misinformation\u201d\u2014 Mann plays the role of truth-teller, warning the public about Donald Trump\u2019s supposedly dangerous rhetoric at the United Nations. According to Mann, nearly \u201cevery single word [Trump] spoke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate deniers\"","block_context":{"text":"climate deniers","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-deniers"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNJ7kCQIfC1mdcqWh5qZEausuIqy4uKuverD3GEAcXltoPYuDoiHpwsydEgucerH6SHPVPMumxFjSmu2P0hizg4U0A470jzwYNx50dnLHTNdLlK6Ks-afoo9QDOFWxvt5-DMTkD7lhZ7gAs0Kes5umGFks9HA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNJ7kCQIfC1mdcqWh5qZEausuIqy4uKuverD3GEAcXltoPYuDoiHpwsydEgucerH6SHPVPMumxFjSmu2P0hizg4U0A470jzwYNx50dnLHTNdLlK6Ks-afoo9QDOFWxvt5-DMTkD7lhZ7gAs0Kes5umGFks9HA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNJ7kCQIfC1mdcqWh5qZEausuIqy4uKuverD3GEAcXltoPYuDoiHpwsydEgucerH6SHPVPMumxFjSmu2P0hizg4U0A470jzwYNx50dnLHTNdLlK6Ks-afoo9QDOFWxvt5-DMTkD7lhZ7gAs0Kes5umGFks9HA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNJ7kCQIfC1mdcqWh5qZEausuIqy4uKuverD3GEAcXltoPYuDoiHpwsydEgucerH6SHPVPMumxFjSmu2P0hizg4U0A470jzwYNx50dnLHTNdLlK6Ks-afoo9QDOFWxvt5-DMTkD7lhZ7gAs0Kes5umGFks9HA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQNJ7kCQIfC1mdcqWh5qZEausuIqy4uKuverD3GEAcXltoPYuDoiHpwsydEgucerH6SHPVPMumxFjSmu2P0hizg4U0A470jzwYNx50dnLHTNdLlK6Ks-afoo9QDOFWxvt5-DMTkD7lhZ7gAs0Kes5umGFks9HA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":363728,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363728","url_meta":{"origin":353057,"position":1},"title":"When a Forecast Flops: Post-Hoc Rationalization in Climate Science","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"This misalignment extends to his forecasts. Mann and his team predicted an \u201cextremely active\u201d hurricane season, with a most likely estimate of 33 named storms. Instead, the season produced just 18\u2014or 19 if we generously include a borderline case.\u00a0For perspective, this falls well below Mann\u2019s projected range of 27\u201339 storms.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0hurricane-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":411504,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411504","url_meta":{"origin":353057,"position":2},"title":"Michael Mann: \u201cI\u2019m Not Owned! I\u2019m Not Owned!!\u201d \u2013 As He Shrinks into a Corn Cob","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"If you\u2019ve been following the climate circus for as long as we have here at WUWT, you know that Michael Mann \u2013 the self-proclaimed guardian of the infamous \u201chockey stick\u201d graph \u2013 has been skating on thin ice for years. 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Ehrlich joins Climategate as a major reason to reject alarmism. And who other than Michael \u201cClimategate\u201d Mann praised Paul \u201cFalse Alarm\u201d Ehrlich.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climategate\"","block_context":{"text":"Climategate","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climategate"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Michael-Mann-Praises-Paul-Ehrlich-for-the-record.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Michael-Mann-Praises-Paul-Ehrlich-for-the-record.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Michael-Mann-Praises-Paul-Ehrlich-for-the-record.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Michael-Mann-Praises-Paul-Ehrlich-for-the-record.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Michael-Mann-Praises-Paul-Ehrlich-for-the-record.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/353057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=353057"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/353057\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":353063,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/353057\/revisions\/353063"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/353061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=353057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=353057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=353057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}