{"id":352515,"date":"2024-11-27T14:38:34","date_gmt":"2024-11-27T13:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352515"},"modified":"2024-11-27T14:38:36","modified_gmt":"2024-11-27T13:38:36","slug":"not-even-summer-with-one-warm-week-and-the-australian-grid-is-on-the-verge-of-blackouts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352515","title":{"rendered":"Not even summer, with one warm week, and the Australian grid is on the verge of blackouts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From JoNova<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jo Nova<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the footsteps of Cuba<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not even summer <\/strong>and the Australian grid is having heart palpitations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Blob are in concert \u2014 blackouts might be at hand, and they want us to blame the heat (it\u2019s code for climate change). Let\u2019s get a grip, we\u2019re only talking about a Sydney forecast of 33\u00b0C<\/a> (all of 91F).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ABC calls this \u201csweltering\u201d<\/a> and files it under \u201cextreme weather events\u201d. Channel Nine call it a \u201cmajor heatwave\u201d<\/a>, which it might be if it were London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For most of the last week, the AEMO (Australia Energy Market Operator) has been flashing red lights and ringing the LOR3 bell. That means  they\u2019ve been forecasting a full Level 3 Lack of Reserve, which means they can see blackouts coming. A level 3 is the most serious warning alarm. Not only is there no reserve power available if something goes wrong, there\u2019s not even enough power for normal operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A week ago the AEMO saw blackouts coming for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday \u2014 but by hook or by crook with finagling, they\u2019ve got enough promised power now to turn off the sirens, though the lights are still flashing. Think of this an emergency room visit where the heart attack didn\u2019t quite happen today, and probably won\u2019t happen tomorrow, but the patient needs to pay attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quite often in the last few years the AEMO would issue a level 1 warning and forecast a few hundred megawatts of shortage for a couple of hours. But by yesterday morning, in forecasts for Wednesday\u2019s mildly warm day they were looking down the barrel of a 1,700 MW shortage<\/a>. The full emergency period was not just an hour or two long but started at 11:30am and ran right through to 7:30pm at night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And of course, it\u2019s old coal\u2019s fault:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Discussion at WattClarity<\/a> <\/em>suggest that Australia is running short of spare coal and gas plants to operate. It\u2019s a combination of forced outages, unforced outages, and some maintenance taking longer than expected. Nearly one third of all thermal units<\/a> bigger than 150MW in generation are out of action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So geniuses, if a lack of coal causes blackouts, what\u2019s going to happen when we shut down more coal?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andrew Forrest\u2019s Squadron Energy said the warning underscored the dangers of an energy system still largely reliant on coal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAEMO has confirmed that the combination of high \u00adtemperatures across NSW and Queensland, along with coal plant outages will cause tight electricity supply forecasts in the coming days,\u201d said Squadron boss Rob Wheals. \u201cWe know that Australia\u2019s coal fleet is nearing the end of its economic and technical lifespan, with coal plant outages driving high price periods.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014    By Perry Williams, The Australian <\/em>Heat spike puts NSW power grid on edge<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s plenty more of that at Squadron Energy\u2019s<\/a> site, where they say \u201c\u201cCoal is killing affordability and reliability. Renewables are the answer.<\/em>\u201d The mystery is why even The Australia<\/em>n thought any of it was worth printing, except as a giggle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Twenty years of Soviet style management is what is killing our grid<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

We got exactly what we paid for: Government subsidies to boost unreliable energy have, shock, created an unreliable grid. We used to have enough coal power so they could take a few units out for maintenance and it didn\u2019t matter. But when we pay more for random generators, we drive reliable ones out of business. We then expect the owners to run vast finely tuned 500-ton machines faster and slower all the time to \u201cfit in\u201d with the wind and solar machines we don\u2019t need. This reduces efficiency, which increases their costs, and no doubt the maintenance time.  Then we kill off the long term prospects for the industry, call them stranded assets, and wonder why companies don\u2019t value them, build new ones or fix up the old ones properly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crazy subsidies, make for crazy thinking, and then we get Squadron Energy telling us coal is killing affordability\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Australian Grid is running close to the edge<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The latest update<\/a> suggests the level 3 alarm for Wednesday and Thursday has dropped to a level 2. The AEMO tell us the reserve requirement on Wednesday for our most populated state is 1,202 MW but, not so reassuringly, \u201cthe minimum capacity reserve is 0 MW\u201d. That means, they think, that if everything works as expected, and the weather is not hotter than forecast, or more cloudy, or less windy, and nothing breaks, then the system will be just barely OK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Usually the people in the control room like to have enough spare capacity on call, so if the biggest single generator trips out, the back up is there to keep the lights on. The minimum capacity reserve<\/em> is not just a nice thing to have, its considered an essential part of normal operation. It\u2019s the difference between the first world and the third world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h\/t David of Cooyal in Oz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

REFERENCES<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

AEMO notice<\/a> 120894 contained the LOR3 1,731MW notice<\/a> at 4:37am Monday. Later notice number 120946<\/a> updated the situation in NSW and number 120949 has cancelled the LOR3 in NSW for Thursday too. The AEMO have put out something like 1,000 notices in the last three weeks. It didn\u2019t use to be this way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s not even summer\u00a0and the Australian grid is having heart palpitations.<\/p>\n

The Blob are in concert \u2014 blackouts might be at hand, and they want us to blame the heat (it\u2019s code for climate change). Let\u2019s get a grip, we\u2019re only\u00a0talking about a Sydney forecast of 33\u00b0C\u00a0(all of 91F).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":352519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831694,691829644,691818279,691831695],"class_list":{"0":"post-352515","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-aemo-australia-energy-market-operator","9":"tag-australian-grid","10":"tag-blackouts","11":"tag-soviet-style-management","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Australian-Blackout.jpg?fit=1356%2C668&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1tHJ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":353685,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353685","url_meta":{"origin":352515,"position":0},"title":"Grid not-fit-for-purpose: On a warm day, Crazy Australia paid $3.5m to industry to *stop* working","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last Wednesday, during the near-miss of a blackout in Sydney, the AEMO spent $3,558,000 on \u201cdemand reduction\u201d which means they paid productive industries to stop working to save the grid from a blackout. 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Just another week in the Transition we (Don\u2019t) have to have With 65 Glorious Gigawatts the Australian grid system has a vast excess (theoretically) of generation capacity, yet it\u2019s so fragile that the loss of an interconnector, normal maintenance and a few coal turbines down \u2014 has triggered\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0map-nem-australia-may-9-2022-aemo.jpg?fit=1030%2C918&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0map-nem-australia-may-9-2022-aemo.jpg?fit=1030%2C918&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0map-nem-australia-may-9-2022-aemo.jpg?fit=1030%2C918&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0map-nem-australia-may-9-2022-aemo.jpg?fit=1030%2C918&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/352515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=352515"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/352515\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":352521,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/352515\/revisions\/352521"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/352519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=352515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=352515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=352515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}