{"id":352125,"date":"2024-11-23T16:15:30","date_gmt":"2024-11-23T15:15:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352125"},"modified":"2024-11-23T16:15:33","modified_gmt":"2024-11-23T15:15:33","slug":"were-all-doomed-yawn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352125","title":{"rendered":"We\u2019re all Doomed. Yawn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael Kile<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but only in My Fair Lady<\/em>. On October 29 and 30, 2024, however, it fell elsewhere with tragic consequences: the loss of over two hundred lives and widespread damage in the Valencia region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almost as surprising as the downpour\u2019s intensity was the rush by agencies in this space to conclude it was caused by the bogeyman apparently driving all natural disasters today: \u201cclimate change\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An alternative explanation is that the weather gods were up to their old tricks. After all, a so-called extreme weather event (EWE) happens somewhere in the world every day. So the probability was high they might conjure up one just a week before COP29<\/a>, as indeed they did last year.  Storm Bettina made landfall in Eastern Europe on November 28, 2023, just days before COP28, the annual UN climate conference<\/a>. It too was attributed rather promptly to nasty anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The COP29 Conference of the Parties is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November, 2024. After twenty eight years of talks, the event is being promoted, optimistically, as a Climate Action Summit. How many people does it take to change the climate of a whole planet to suit everybody everywhere and forever? At least 40,000, judging by the number of delegates this year. Good luck with that exercise of breathtaking hubris, the bureaucratic equivalent of collective hara kiri<\/em>, at least for the developed world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UN Secretary-General, Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, had a familiar message for them: immediate steps must be taken to cut [carbon dioxide] emissions, \u201csafeguard people from climate chaos\u201d, and \u201ctear down the walls to climate finance\u201d, especially given what he described as this year\u2019s \u201cmasterclass in climate destruction\u201d. It was d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu<\/em> all over again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COP29 is yet another attempt by the developing world to monetize the climate and raise \u201ctrillions of dollars to protect lives and livelihoods from the worsening impacts of climate change.\u201d Yet most countries were silent on the irony of China\u2019s chutzpah: the world\u2019s largest coal consumer, biggest solar panel manufacturer and now space explorer, still claiming developing country status and putting its hand out for billions of dollars of free money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is, of course, no suggestion here that the agency rush to judgment mentioned above might have been due to activist researchers so dazzled by confirmation bias \u2013 and now underwritten by fabulous funding from both governments and private entities \u2013 they could not resist making confident claims about climate causation, such as detecting the \u201cfingerprint of climate change in complex weather events\u201d; or that the MSM has become rather keen to provide them with a media megaphone without further scrutiny, or express any doubt about the veracity of their claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, dear reader, here\u2019s an intriguing case for your consideration. On 31 October, 2024, just a few hours after the Spanish deluge, BBC\u2019s climate editor, Justin Rowlatt, posted this article: Deadliest weather made worse by climate change \u2013 scientists<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Human-caused climate change made the ten deadliest extreme weather events of the last 20 years more intense and more likely, according to new analysis.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The killer storms, heatwaves and floods affected Europe, Africa and Asia killing more than 570,000 people.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new analysis highlights how scientists can now discern the fingerprint of climate change in complex weather events<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study involved reanalysing data for some of the extreme weather events and was carried out by scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group at Imperial College London.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis study should be an eye-opener for political leaders hanging on to fossil fuels that heat the planet and destroy lives\u201d, said Dr Friederike Otto, co-founder and lead of WWA.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we keep burning oil, gas and coal, the suffering will continue,\u201d she said.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just four days later, on November 4, 2024, WWA itself released a statement: extreme downpours increasing in southern Spain as fossil fuel emissions heat the climate<\/a>. It had performed a \u201csuper rapid analysis<\/em>\u201d on the observational data. While it was \u201cnot a formal attribution study<\/em>,\u201d WWA was quicker than Wyatt Earp<\/a> to identify what it believes caused the late October deluge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To investigate if climate change influenced the heavy rainfall, we determine if there is a trend in the historic rainfall observations in the region. The three analysed datasets indicate that heavy 1-day rainfall events, as intense as the one observed, are about 12% more intense and about twice as likely in today\u2019s climate, that is 1.3\u00b0C warmer than it would have been in the cooler preindustrial climate without human-caused warming.  <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These results are based on observational data and do not include climate models that are used in full attribution studies. However, the results are in line with existing evidence of climate change signals in similar past extreme daily-rainfall events that have been studied across Europe. They are also aligned with basic physics and the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, which outlines that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, resulting in a 7% increase in heavy rainfall with 1\u00b0C of warming. We are therefore confident the changes in heavy rainfall are driven by human-caused climate change<\/u>. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only a seven percent increase in heavy rainfall with an increase of one degree Centigrade of warming hardly seems alarming. In any case, with what alchemy does WWA, or indeed any agency, distinguish the weather\u2019s natural variability from \u201chuman-caused climate change\u201d? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

WWA\u2019s analysis also \u201cbuilt on a relatively sparse literature on rainfall extremes in the region\u201d. In other words, poor data. Why it included the following paragraph, which appears to contradict its conclusion, is unclear, at least to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Working group 1 of the sixth assessment report of the IPCC found evidence of an increasing trend in rainfall extremes in western and central Europe, but with low confidence of the human contribution to this due to limited agreement<\/u> (<\/em>IPCC, 2021<\/em><\/a>). Furthermore, projected changes in such extremes vary strongly by location and season<\/u>, especially in the study region in this analysis, which suggest a wetting trend in winter and drying in summer (<\/em>Wood & Ludwig, 2020<\/em><\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How did WWA decipher this EWE and reach such an emphatic conclusion in less than a week? Was its \u201csuper rapid analysis\u201d driven more by a desire to turn the Spanish downpour into another scary storyline for the Imperial College climate research team<\/a> to promote in Baku, when it presented there on November 11, the first day of COP29?  The so-called facts in this case surely were not massaged to achieve other objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever the case, if the fate of humankind depends on the insights \u2013 and prejudices<\/em> \u2013 of professional readers of the Earth\u2019s atmospheric entrails, perhaps it would be prudent not to ignore their warnings. Yet, on the balance of probabilities, it\u2019s hard to deny that the sequence of events outlined above has a fishy smell about it. A sceptic might conclude that a random EWE \u2013 in this case the rain in Spain \u2013 may have been weaponised to support the alarmist mood at COP29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such a view arguably becomes more credible on discovering that WWA\u2019s main benefactor is The Grantham Institute<\/a>. It sits \u201cat the heart of Imperial College London<\/a>\u2019s work on climate change and the environment, with the mission: \u201cto lead on world-class research, policy, training and innovation that supports effective action on climate change.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Grantham Institute \u2013 Climate Change and the Environment entity was created in February 2007 with a multi-million-pound donation from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment<\/a>. It was the largest sum of private funding given to UK climate change research <\/em>at the time.<\/em> The aim: to create a global centre of excellence for research and education on climate change at Imperial College London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Granthams hope that their donation will motivate other individuals to support research into the causes, consequences and mitigation of climate change with a view to informing policy on an international scale.<\/strong><\/u><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Grantham Family established the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment in 1997. The Foundation supports natural resource conservation projects both in the US and internationally. Jeremy Grantham is a well-known investment manager and chairman of Boston-based investment firm, GMO. Hannelore Grantham is Director of the Grantham Foundation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Foundation also supports our partner institutes: the <\/em>Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment<\/em><\/a> (London School of Economics), the Divecha Centre for Climate Change<\/a> (Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore) and the <\/em>Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures<\/em><\/a> (University of Sheffield). <\/em>(Source: <\/em>The Grantham Institute<\/em><\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeremy Grantham remains the long-term investment strategist at the firm he cofounded in 1977, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO). He still serves on its asset allocation committee and board of directors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an interview with Morningstar<\/a> on October 9 this year, Grantham said he was as concerned as \u201cevery scientist in the climate business\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morningstar<\/strong>:You spend a lot of time thinking about climate and environmental issues more broadly. Renewables have clearly made a lot of strides, electric vehicles, and yet carbon emissions remain stubbornly high. As a climate solutions investor, what you\u2019re excited about these days?<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grantham<\/strong>:Well, what I consider important is the ability of senior people to miss the point. Climate change is like some giant python. It\u2019s got us gripped and it isn\u2019t squeezing that tight yet. But each year it\u2019s getting a little tighter and it shows no inclination to go away and we\u2019re ignoring it.<\/u> If we continue to take climate change this lightly, if we continue to protect our short-term profits and ignore longer-term consequences to the general world, we will have a very hard time maintaining a stable world, stable social, stable corporate, stable anything. And I would say, to me, on a global basis, it looks like we\u2019re quite a handful of years into a destabilizing mode and the climate change has a lot to do with it.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Grantham Foundation has 90% of all the money I\u2019ve ever made: 50% is in venture capital, maybe closer to 60% today, and half of that is green.<\/u> So, we get a ringside seat at what is going on.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the World Weather Attribution<\/a> group, it was formed by Imperial and The Grantham Institute in 2014 with the explicit aim<\/em> of \u201cchanging the global conversation around climate change, influencing adaptation strategies and paving the way for new sustainability litigation<\/em>.\u201d  In other words, funding a smorgasbord of controversial extreme event attribution<\/a> computer games, green ideology and climate politics. If the ultimate objective is litigation, perhaps \u201cconversation\u201d is the wrong word.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The group says it has \u201cperformed more than 80 attribution studies on heatwaves, extreme rainfall, drought, floods, wildfires and cold spells around the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WWA is very much on the same page as its benefactors, as is clear from some of the comments made here: Imperial experts call for action on finance health and loss and damage at COP29<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having an agreement about the amount of money and where that money\u2019s coming from [\u2026] will be one of the most significant outcomes of COP29<\/em>. Mike Wilkins<\/a>, Executive Director, Centre of Climate Finance & Investment<\/a>, Imperial Business School.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shrinking carbon budget shows the importance and urgency of near-term emissions reductions<\/em>. Professor Joeri Rogelj<\/a>, Director of Research, Grantham Institute \u2013 Climate change and the Environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One of the important decisions that needs to happen at COP29 is who can access the loss and damage fund<\/em>.\u00a0Dr\u00a0Friederike Otto<\/a>,\u00a0founder and lead of\u00a0World Weather Attribution<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Grantham is right. Climate change has become a global \u201cbusiness\u201d, presumably very profitable for \u201ccarbon\u201d cowboys or green investors like GMO, at least unless the RE music stops for some reason, such as a decline in public gullibility about the \u201cclimate crisis\u201d. There\u2019s another python on the planet too: the sperm count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grantham<\/strong>:In terms of pessimism, in a sense, you ain\u2019t heard nothing yet. Because in my opinion, there\u2019s not just one python squeezing us, there\u2019s two<\/u>\u2014the other is toxicity. If we do not move against toxicity, we are going out of business. And to give you the most shocking single number, our sperm count, which is the best indicator of general health, is down to a third of what it was in 1950\u2014and 1950 was not a healthy place to be. Hunter\/gatherers a few thousand years earlier would have been much healthier. And it\u2019s falling at an accelerating rate. One of great epidemiologists who study this said, \u201cIt\u2019s as if we mean to go out of business.\u201d The drop since 2000 is over 2.5% a year from where we were. And the drop in the 20th century was closer to 1.5%. But no one gives it rat\u2019s tail.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael Kile<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A version of this article was posted at the Australian site, Quadrant Online, on November 19, 2024, with the title: We\u2019re all Doomed. Yawn<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but only in\u00a0My Fair Lady. On October 29 and 30, 2024, however, it fell elsewhere with tragic consequences: the loss of over two hundred lives and widespread damage in the Valencia region.<\/p>\n

Almost as surprising as the downpour\u2019s intensity was the rush by agencies in this space to conclude it was caused by the bogeyman apparently driving all natural disasters today: \u201cclimate change\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":352130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821572,691818056,691831492,691831635,691820274],"class_list":{"0":"post-352125","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-antonio-guterres-2","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-cop-29-united-nations-climate-summit-in-azerbaijan","11":"tag-extreme-weather-event-ewe","12":"tag-un-secretary-general","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Highway-to-hell-66.jpg?fit=1024%2C680&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1tBr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":416259,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416259","url_meta":{"origin":352125,"position":0},"title":"From Storm to Scare Story: How the Guardian Wrongly Claimed Climate Change Caused a \u2018Climate Breakdown\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Guardian\u2019s recent article, \u201c\u2018My husband and daughter went down to the garage in case it flooded. Then I heard a strange noise\u2019 \u2013 This is climate breakdown,\u201d by Ajit Niranjan, presents the tragic story of a family caught in the Valencia floods of October 2024, framing the disaster as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Ajit Niranjan\"","block_context":{"text":"Ajit Niranjan","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ajit-niranjan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":350515,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350515","url_meta":{"origin":352125,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Bloomberg, Real World Evidence Proves Extreme Rainfall Hasn\u2019t Become More Frequent or Deadly","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A November 4th Bloomberg article, titled \u201cExtreme Rainfall Is Becoming More Frequent and Deadly,\u201d covering the recent floods in Valencia suggests that climate change is producing greater numbers extreme rainfall events that are also more deadly now than before. This is false. Data proves that Bloomberg\u2019s claims fail the truth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bloomberg\"","block_context":{"text":"Bloomberg","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bloomberg"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0GettyImages-592034559-1-e1658260204585.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0GettyImages-592034559-1-e1658260204585.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0GettyImages-592034559-1-e1658260204585.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0GettyImages-592034559-1-e1658260204585.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0GettyImages-592034559-1-e1658260204585.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":350208,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350208","url_meta":{"origin":352125,"position":2},"title":"Flooding Facts Drowned by Climate Hysteria: The BBC Ignores Spain\u2019s Weather History","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) article, titled \u201cScientists sure warming world made Spain\u2019s storm more intense,\u201d ties recent flash flooding in Spain to climate change. 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The UN expert climate scientists say that shutting coal plants and building windmills is the best way to stop floods. 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Lauderdale","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"During the 51 years of daily observations for 48 weather stations no cyclical pattern of torrential rain was discerned.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"Flooding\"","block_context":{"text":"Flooding","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=flooding"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0230412-florida-rain-mn-0900-d53ed0.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0230412-florida-rain-mn-0900-d53ed0.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0230412-florida-rain-mn-0900-d53ed0.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0230412-florida-rain-mn-0900-d53ed0.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0230412-florida-rain-mn-0900-d53ed0.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414517,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414517","url_meta":{"origin":352125,"position":5},"title":"The climate scaremongers: Flooding is par for the course in Monmouth","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/24\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"MONMOUTH suffered some bad flooding last weekend as Storm Claudia passed through. 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