{"id":351808,"date":"2024-11-20T17:10:59","date_gmt":"2024-11-20T16:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351808"},"modified":"2024-11-20T17:11:01","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T16:11:01","slug":"surfboards-and-science-why-a-17-year-olds-ocean-thermometer-wont-save-the-planet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351808","title":{"rendered":"Surfboards and Science: Why a 17-Year-Old\u2019s Ocean \u2018Thermometer\u2019 Won\u2019t Save the Planet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh, look,\u00a0The Guardian<\/em>\u00a0is at it again, serving up a piping hot plate of climate hysteria with a side of precocious child activism. This time, they\u2019ve hauled out a 17-year-old surfer from Brazil to lecture us all at COP29 about how the ocean is allegedly \u201cgetting warmer.\u201d Because, obviously, who needs thermometers, satellite data, or rigorous reconstructions of ocean temperatures when you\u2019ve got a paddling around on a foam board?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

As a surfer, I\u2019m constantly on the ocean, and I actually felt the oceans warming,\u201d says Catarina Lorenzo, 17, a professional surfer from Salvador, in Bahia state in Brazil.

https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/live\/2024\/nov\/19\/cop29-climate-summit-live-updates-world-leaders-in-baku-azerbaijan?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-673c55e78f0866cddf1b7a15#block-673c55e78f0866cddf1b7a15<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the deal: The Guardian breathlessly reports that this kid has \u201cnoticed the ocean getting warmer.\u201d Wow, stop the presses! Cornwall\u2019s pint-sized Jacques Cousteau has declared it so! I\u2019m sure every scientist laboring over ARGO floats and analyzing centuries of proxy data is ready to throw in the towel, because we\u2019ve discovered the ultimate climate measuring device: the \u201c17-year-old personal feeling-o-meter.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it gets better. The kid was apparently speaking on behalf of \u201cSurfers Against Sewage.\u201d Yes, you read that right. The name alone sounds like something straight out of a Monty Python sketch. Their shtick? Conflating ocean pollution, sewage overflow, and global climate trends into one big glob of environmental alarmism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the kicker, though. Despite the breathless claims and emotional appeals, ocean temperature measurements themselves are riddled with uncertainty. You see, when it comes to understanding ocean warming, scientists have been collecting data for decades using methods like ship-based thermometers, satellites, ARGO buoys, and reconstructions from coral and sediment cores. And guess what? These methods often disagree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ARGO floats, for example, give relatively recent snapshots, while historical reconstructions rely on proxies that are, to put it generously, open to interpretation. Measurement coverage is patchy at best\u2014deep ocean data remains elusive, and even surface readings show considerable variability depending on location and season. When you\u2019re trying to average this chaotic mess into a single \u201cglobal ocean temperature anomaly,\u201d the error bars are about as wide as the English Channel itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And those models everyone loves to parade around? They\u2019re based on assumptions piled on assumptions. Sure, we have rough trends, but the confidence levels plummet as soon as you start asking detailed questions like \u201cHow much of the variability is natural?\u201d or \u201cWhat role does deep ocean circulation play?\u201d And yet, despite these known limitations, we\u2019re supposed to take a 17-year-old surfer\u2019s anecdote as the clincher for the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s be blunt: The ocean is vast, covering over 70% of the planet\u2019s surface, with depths averaging over two miles. Measuring its temperature with precision is a Herculean challenge that makes building a Swiss watch look like child\u2019s play. Yet here comes The Guardian<\/em>, peddling the notion that a kid with a wetsuit can feel changes too subtle for many instruments to consistently detect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And let\u2019s not ignore the larger absurdity here. Will Xi Jinping read about Cornwall\u2019s Surfer Oracle and suddenly decide to shutter his coal plants? Will India halt its drive to electrify rural villages because a 17-year-old thinks her ocean swims are a little toastier? Of course not. This is pure theater, designed to elicit emotion, not address reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real kicker is that even if the oceans are warming, what are the odds we\u2019re getting it precisely right? If the best science comes with massive uncertainties, then turning to anecdotal feelings is like throwing darts blindfolded and hoping to hit a bullseye. It\u2019s unserious on its face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, to The Guardian<\/em>: Next time, try citing evidence that doesn\u2019t dissolve under the first wave of scrutiny\u2014or logic. And to the young surfer: Keep riding those waves and having fun. But when it comes to ocean temperatures, let\u2019s leave the analysis to professionals\u2014preferably ones who acknowledge the massive uncertainty in the data they\u2019re working with. Or, at the very least, someone who doesn\u2019t think their wetsuit doubles as a thermometer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oh, look,\u00a0The Guardian\u00a0is at it again, serving up a piping hot plate of climate hysteria with a side of precocious child activism. This time, they\u2019ve hauled out a 17-year-old surfer from Brazil to lecture us all at COP29 about how the ocean is allegedly \u201cgetting warmer.\u201d Because, obviously, who needs thermometers, satellite data, or rigorous reconstructions of ocean temperatures when you\u2019ve got a paddling around on a foam board?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":351812,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831590,691818272,691825218,691818262],"class_list":{"0":"post-351808","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-catarina-lorenzo","9":"tag-climate-hysteria","10":"tag-cop29","11":"tag-the-guardian","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0618925d56e5a91fb4bf7d1eb_Catarina-Lorenzo.jpg?fit=1500%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1twk","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":349808,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=349808","url_meta":{"origin":351808,"position":0},"title":"Advance Briefing for COP29 Baku\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Negotiators from across the globe will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the twenty-ninth annual UN climate change conference on November 11. 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Essay by Eric Worrall How could this get funnier? Azerbaijan, once described as the nation where it rains oil, has just appointed a state oil company veteran as COP29 President. Azerbaijan appoint state oil company veteran as Cop29 president\u00a0 Published on\u00a004\/01\/2024, 5:19pm Mukhtar Babayev spent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Azerbaijan\"","block_context":{"text":"Azerbaijan","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=azerbaijan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2GBGQPx0W8AAuYvV.jpeg?fit=942%2C942&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2GBGQPx0W8AAuYvV.jpeg?fit=942%2C942&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2GBGQPx0W8AAuYvV.jpeg?fit=942%2C942&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2GBGQPx0W8AAuYvV.jpeg?fit=942%2C942&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=351808"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351808\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":351814,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351808\/revisions\/351814"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/351812"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=351808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=351808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=351808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}