{"id":351301,"date":"2024-11-15T13:37:37","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T12:37:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351301"},"modified":"2024-11-15T13:37:39","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T12:37:39","slug":"keir-starmers-climate-madness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351301","title":{"rendered":"Keir Starmer\u2019s Climate Madness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by<\/strong><\/em> Willis Eschenbach<\/a> \u00a0(@WEschenbach on eX-Twitter)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I see that Mad Keir Starmer, the frontman for the grunge rock band performing at the current UN Climate Conference Of The Parties under the name of \u201cThe UK\u201d, has unilaterally declared that the UK will cut its CO2 emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. I do love that it\u2019s 81% and not 80% \u2026 but I digress.<\/p>\n\n\n

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I also note that the UK Office of Budget Responsibility estimates <\/a>that the UK getting to net zero by 2050 will cost \u00a3321 billion UK pounds (~ $410 billion US dollars) \u2026 and again, I gotta laugh that it\u2019s not \u00a3320 billion, it\u2019s \u00a3321 billion \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, I\u2019ve said at various times that folks who propose big-dollar plans to attempt to reduce future temperatures should be legally required to calculate how much cooler the world will be in 2050 IF (and it\u2019s a big if) the IPCC estimates of the effects of CO2 on temperature are accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So lets take Mad Keir\u2019s UK plan as a test case. Here\u2019s a look at the UK CO2 emissions record.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Figure 1. UK emissions<\/em>\u00a0since 1850<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Looks pretty impressive, all right. They\u2019ve cut their emissions by half since 1975. Of course, in reality the reduction is much smaller. A lot of the emissions reductions resulted from the offshoring of UK manufacturing that\u2019s hollowed out the UK economy, so the CO2 is produced in another country and UK folks get to feel all noble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Mad Keir\u2019s not talking about that, so I won\u2019t either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, here\u2019s a bit of a different look at the exact same data. This shows the UK emissions as a yellow line as in Figure 1, and the rest of the world\u2019s emissions (less the UK) as a red line.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Figure 2. CO2 emissions, UK and rest of the world.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now, the IPCC says that the change shown by the red line of CO2 emissions has warmed the earth by about 1.4\u00b0C \u2026 so this gives us the first intimation that the temperature change from the UK emissions will be minuscule, trivially small.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, that graph makes it clear that nothing the UK does will make a measurable difference in global temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how small exactly? To estimate how much difference the UK sacrifices will make, here is a graph of a couple of simplified possible future UK scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Figure 3. Future possible scenarios for UK emissions.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The scenario shown in blue freezes the UK emissions at the current (2022) level. The red line drops emissions to 19% of the 1990 levels by 2035 and then to net zero by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since some folks are allergic to math, I\u2019ve put the actual calculations as an appendix. But the results are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The difference in CO2 emissions between the blue scenario and the red scenario is about 5.5 fewer gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 emitted by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At 17.3 Gt of CO2 emissions per ppmv of atmospheric CO2 change, that\u2019s a change of 0.32 ppmv of CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So IF (and it\u2019s a big if) the IPCC estimates of the effects of CO2 on temperature are accurate, then all of the time and effort and stacks of money expended by UK taxpayers will result in the earth being cooler in 2050 by \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 wait for it \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 a whopping 0.0007\u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seriously. All that wealth and human effort, all the government regulations and interference, all the suffering of the poor from skyrocketing energy costs, to MAYBE cool the world by seven ten-thousandths of a degree in 2050.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Call me crazy, but I think if everyone in the UK knew that all that Net-Zero 2050 would achieve is a POSSIBLE cooling of 0.0007\u00b0C by 2050, that idea would die instantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, Keir has said he hopes other countries will follow the UK\u2019s lead and we can cool the world by a degree or so. To see if they\u2019ll do that, let\u2019s see how much it would cost to MAYBE cool the world by 1\u00b0C by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a UK cost of $408 billion to make our lovely planet cooler in 2050 by 0.0007\u00b0C, making it 1\u00b0C cooler would cost $580 TRILLION dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, the total of all the revenue collected (and often wasted or trousered) by all of the governments on this marvelous earth is about $15 trillion dollars per year \u2026 so even<\/strong> if every government everywhere spent every dime of their taxpayer\u2019s money on the insane war against CO2 from today until 2050, we still wouldn\u2019t cool it by 1\u00b0 C<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if Mad Keir thinks China, India, Russia, Brazil, or their like will sign on to that insanity, well, that\u2019s why he\u2019s Mad Keir. He likely thinks of it as insurance against disaster, but that\u2019s like paying $2000 per year for years on an insurance policy that in case of catastrophe pays you $750 \u2026 just to pick a random payout number \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My warmest regards to all,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

THE USUAL:<\/strong> Please quote the exact words that you are discussing. I\u2019m happy to defend my words. I can\u2019t defend your re-statement of my words in a different form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

APPENDIX:<\/strong> First, here\u2019s my usual trigger warning, Calvin regarding the mathiness.<\/p>\n\n\n

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With that settled, the total mass of the atmosphere is approximately 5.1 x 10^18 kg. 1 ppmv of CO2 in the atmosphere is equivalent to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n