{"id":351059,"date":"2024-11-13T08:24:31","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T07:24:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351059"},"modified":"2024-11-13T08:24:34","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T07:24:34","slug":"new-study-human-contribution-to-enhancement-of-earths-greenhouse-effect-a-negligible-0-2-percent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351059","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0New Study: Human Contribution To Enhancement Of Earth\u2019s Greenhouse Effect A Negligible 0.2 Percent"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[T]he contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect is 4% \u2013 5%. Human CO2 emissions represent 4% of the total, which means that the total human contribution to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect is 0.16% to 0.20% \u2013 a negligible effect.\u201d \u2013 Dr. Demetris Koutsoyiannis (2024)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

New research<\/a><\/strong> exposes the vacuousness of the \u201cimaginary world\u201d models proclaiming CO2 the dominant regulator of the Earth\u2019s climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A CO2-less or CO2-only atmosphere\u2026an imaginary-world thought experiment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An oft-heard claim is that, due to the prominence of CO2 as the Earth\u2019s climate \u201ccontrol knob\u201d (see Lacis et al., 2010<\/a><\/strong>), the greenhouse effect could not exist \u2013 indeed, it would collapse \u2013 if there was no CO2 in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Lacis et al., 2010<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Schmidt et al., 2006<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, it should go without saying that this CO2-less atmospheric condition itself is an imaginary-world conceptualization. Thus, fantasizing about what would happen if the atmosphere was comprised 0 ppm CO2, 1,000,000 ppm CO2, 0 ppm water vapor\u2026are all just untestable, never-observable thought experiments. They cannot be subjected to the scientific method. Thus, they are unfalsifiable<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CO2\u2019s climate effects are undetectable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, this very unfalsifiable thought experiment is what believers in the CO2-is-the-climate-control-knob narrative rest their case on. But even if we do<\/em> use this imaginary-world premise, the existing models (MODTRAN, HITRAN) that allegedly support<\/em> the CO2-controls-climate orthodoxy actually undermine it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, as Dr. Koutsoyiannis points out in his extensively-referenced paper, the MODTRAN data show that the Earth\u2019s temperature remains at the default greenhouse-effect value if the water vapor scale is adjusted upwards slightly, by just 30%. The greenhouse effect does not \u201ccollapse\u201d as claimed by Lacis et al. disciples \u2013 the control-knob believers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The HITRAN database also indicates the imaginary-world condition of doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm would only alter the radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere by -1.1%, a hypothetical realization that could not even be detected in future macroscopic measurements (if the atmosphere ever were to reach a CO2 concentration of 800 ppm).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MODTRAN models further affirm that (1) there is only a 1% temperature difference between either doubling (800 ppm) or halving (200 ppm) the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and (2) the change in the downwelling radiation resulting from an increase from 300 ppm (1900) to 420 ppm (2023) is only 0.5%. These tiny changes \u201ccould not be discerned by observations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Koutsoyiannis, 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

CO2 has not been detectably reducing the outgoing longwave radiation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a \u201ccontrol knob\u201d for the climate, CO2 is believed to be the principal reason why the Earth\u2019s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) should be reducing (Dewitte and Clerbaux, 2018<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026the increase of Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) primarily CO2 reduces the OLR\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, despite the increase in CO2 concentration in recent decades, OLR has been increasing. Any reduction in OLR from the CO2 effect is not detectable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Dewitte and Clerbaux, 2018<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, the MODTRAN clear-sky results (i.e., an atmosphere where no clouds exist and CO2 and water vapor are the main greenhouse effect agents) show OLR has increased by +0.38 to +0.60 W\/m\u00b2 from 2001 to 2022, consistent with the increase in temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the data reviewed by Dr. Koutsoyiannis, any record of decrease in OLR \u201ccan hardly be attributed to increased CO2, but it can be related to water vapor and cloud profiles,\u201d as the \u201ceffect of CO2 is trumped by the effect of clouds, which is consistent with the major role of water on climate and the minor one of CO2.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

95% of the greenhouse effect (downwelling radiation) is from water vapor, clouds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per the MODTRAN calculations, CO2\u2019s contribution to the planetary greenhouse effect is only 4% to 5%, and the contribution from water vapor and clouds is 87% (outgoing radiation) to 95% (downwelling radiation). The CO2 contribution to greenhouse effect changes over the last century, as CO2 increased from 300 ppm to 420 ppm, is only about 0.5%. This quantified percentage is \u201cbelow any threshold to make it observable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worse, when we consider that human CO2 emissions are only 4% of Earth\u2019s total CO2 emissions, and that the CO2 contribution to the greenhouse effect is just 4% to 5%, \u201cthe total human contribution to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect is 0.16% to 0.20%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Koutsoyiannis, 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Supporting evidence for CO2\u2019s negligible role<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another set of sources supporting the contention that CO2\u2019s greenhouse effect contribution is only 4% to 5% comes from the notorious Trenberth radiation budget charts. First, notice the 333 W\/m\u00b2 value identified for downwelling radiation from greenhouse gases (lower right).<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Trenberth and Fasullo, 2011<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now consider the estimated greenhouse effect (downwelling radiation) contribution from CO2 alone as shown in  Schmith\u00fcsen et al., 2015<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notice it ranges from about 0 W\/m\u00b2 (or less) near the poles, about 10-15 W\/m\u00b2 at mid-high latitudes, and about 25 W\/m\u00b2 around the tropics. Averaged over the globe, it would appear the total mean CO2 greenhouse effect contribution is about 13 to 15 W\/m\u00b2. If CO2 indeed accounts for ~14 W\/m\u00b2 of the 333 W\/m\u00b2 downwelling radiation from greenhouse gases, its contribution is 4.2%. The other ~95%, or ~320 W\/m\u00b2, is necessarily from water vapor and cloud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Schmith\u00fcsen\u00a0et al., 2015<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As shown in the Koutsoyiannis review of results from HITRAN database, a doubling of CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm only produces a ~1.1% perturbation to the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere (3 W\/m\u00b2), which is not discernible. This is consistent with Chen et al. (2024<\/a><\/strong>), who assess that a doubling of CO2 produces a negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing (-1 W\/m\u00b2), and a positive TOA forcing of just +2-3 W\/m\u00b2 in the mid-high latitudes and tropics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These papers further establish the negligible role of CO2 in the Earth\u2019s greenhouse effect.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Chen et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c[T]he contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect is 4% \u2013 5%. Human CO2 emissions represent 4% of the total, which means that the total human contribution to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect is 0.16% to 0.20% \u2013 a negligible effect.\u201d \u2013 Dr. Demetris Koutsoyiannis (2024)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":351072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691827130,691818153,691819106,691831451],"class_list":{"0":"post-351059","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-control-knob","11":"tag-earths-greenhouse-effect","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=2193%2C1220&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1tkf","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":368744,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368744","url_meta":{"origin":351059,"position":0},"title":"IR-Active Gases: H2O Potent, CO2\u00a0Feeble","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Using a detailed atmospheric radiative transfer model, we derive macroscopic relationships of downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation\u00a0which enable determining the partial derivatives thereof with respect to the explanatory variables that represent the greenhouse gases. We\u00a0validate\u00a0these macroscopic relationships using empirical formulae\u00a0based on downwelling radiation data,\u00a0commonly used in hydrology,\u00a0and satellite data for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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November 2023 Variations in the greenhouse effect are predominantly modulated by water vapor and cloud cover. CO2\u2019s role in the greenhouse effect is so minor it cannot be discerned. 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