{"id":350712,"date":"2024-11-09T16:07:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-09T15:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350712"},"modified":"2024-11-09T16:07:24","modified_gmt":"2024-11-09T15:07:24","slug":"despite-media-panic-there-is-no-reason-to-think-2024s-warming-is-disastrous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350712","title":{"rendered":"Despite Media Panic, There Is No Reason to Think 2024\u2019s Warming Is Disastrous"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
The boogeyman of climate change.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Linnea Lueken<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Multiple outlets have posted articles covering a report from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (\u201cCopernicus\u201d) which says that 2024 will be the first to surpass 1.5\u00b0C warming since pre-industrial times, which the media claims will cause untold weather disasters. This is mostly false. Although it is likely that 2024 will have higher average temperatures than in recent decades, it is not the end of the year yet, and there limited evidence to support the claim that it will represent the highest temperatures humans have ever experienced and no evidence whatsoever that weather disasters have gotten or will get worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BBC<\/a> and CNN<\/a> are among the numerous mainstream media outlets reporting on Copernicus\u2019 report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CNN describes the report as \u201cdevastating news for the planet that comes as America chooses a president that has promised to undo its climate progress<\/a> both at home and abroad.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Copernicus group estimates that 2024 will end up 1.55\u00b0C hotter than the 1850-1900 average, which is 0.05\u00b0C above the warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. This may be true, but there is no evidence that the 1.5\u2103 threshold is actually some kind of deadly tipping point for weather disasters. The same organization sounded the alarm last year that the \u201climit\u201d was breached<\/a> for several months in a row, while ignoring natural factors like an underwater volcano eruption. As for the 1.5 degree limit itself, it was not established by professional climate scientists. Only one of the people who were on the panel that came up with the value was even a meteorologist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two other points worth noting. The claim is bit of sleight of hand, cherry picking the data for comparison. Earth was only just coming out of a little ice age at the onset of the 1850 period, one of the coldest periods during the past millennia. When you pick an usually cold period for comparison, a modest warming seems more dramatic than it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, the 1.5\u2103 is an arbitrary<\/a> temperature choice. As Climate Realism<\/em> has discussed repeatedly, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>, for example, it was chosen by politicians for political reasons. There is no scientific evidence it represents some tipping point for catastrophic climate change. It is likely that the world has warmed more than 2\u00b0C since the 1700s<\/a>, with no apocalypse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One would think that if warming causes more extreme weather there would be solid data and identifiable consistent trends showing an increase in extreme weather, but there is none. Three of the weather events CNN cites at the end of their article as proof of a supposed climate emergency, Hurricane Milton, the flooding in Spain, and low snow amounts at Mt. Fuji, are not proof of a climate emergency. CNN frames any bad weather as \u201cclimate change-fueled\u201d which is unscientific at best, propagandistic and dishonest at worst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane Milton, as Climate Realism<\/em> covered here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>, was not unprecedented. Nor was it caused by climate change. Similar storms have struck the area in the mid-1800s and early 1900s, before modern modest warming started in earnest. Data for Florida in particular show no trends in hurricane severity. (See figure below)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Hurricanes in general are also not intensifying<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The flooding in Spain this fall likewise has no actual data to back up any ideas of being \u201cclimate-fueled\u201d \u2013 again, weather history shows that the event was not unprecedented or unexpected. While it is true that warmer air can hold more moisture, this does not mean that every severe rainfall event is being influenced by this effect. There is not a direct linear correlation between the ability of the air to hold more water vapor, and an increase in the amount of rain that falls when a storm occurs. In addition, massive flooding with similar deadly impacts have occurred repeatedly in Spain\u2019s history, at times when temperatures were cooler. All of this was covered in more detail in the Climate Realism<\/em> post \u201cFlooding Facts Drowned by Climate Hysteria: The BBC Ignores Spain\u2019s Weather History.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Mt. Fuji, CNN is once again exaggerating. The previous records for late snow on the mountain were set in 1955 and 2016 at October 26th<\/sup>, while this year the mountain saw snow November 6th<\/sup>, which is rather late, but not cataclysmic. Experts<\/a> in Japan say it is too early to link this late snow to climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BBC is a bit more tempered in its approach, going so far as to admit that much of the warmth this year and last was due to \u201cthe natural El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern<\/a>.\u201d This is true<\/a>, and is important context to keep in mind when discussing weather patterns and warming. Climate at a Glance: El Ni\u00f1o and Global Warming<\/a> points out that removing those phenomena from the climate record causes almost half of global warming in the 21st<\/sup> century to disappear. This is a natural weather pattern that has a major influence on global conditions \u2013 there is no amount of fossil fuel abandonment that would change that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The news media is abuzz about this latest warming scare story, but as usual, digging into the facts reveals that there is little \u201cnews\u201d in the stories and even less to actually be worried about. CNN and the BBC would serve their audiences better by checking their biases towards climate alarm at the door, do some fact checking on reports from advocacy groups, like Copernicus, and stick to facts, consisting of data that can be confirmed, rather than relying on scary anecdotes and alarming assertions. Alarm may make for good headlines, but it makes for poor reporting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Multiple outlets have posted articles covering a report from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (\u201cCopernicus\u201d) which says that 2024 will be the first to surpass 1.5\u00b0C warming since pre-industrial times, which the media claims will cause untold weather disasters. This is mostly false.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":350714,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691831401,691818087,691818513],"class_list":{"0":"post-350712","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-european-copernicus-climate-change-service-copernicus","10":"tag-global-warming","11":"tag-weather-disasters","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0boogeyman-journalist-127048059_m-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1537&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1teE","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":422975,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=422975","url_meta":{"origin":350712,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Mainstream Media, A Brief 1.4\u00b0C Global Temperature Spike Isn\u2019t Evidence of \u2018Climate Doom\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Several media outlets including National Public Radio (NPR) and Politico recently published stories lamenting \u201cwarnings\u201d from climate scientists about the current state of global temperature. 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