{"id":350651,"date":"2024-11-08T18:16:24","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T17:16:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350651"},"modified":"2024-11-08T18:16:25","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T17:16:25","slug":"relative-importance-of-carbon-dioxide-and-water-in-the-greenhouse-effect-does-the-tail-wag-the-dog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350651","title":{"rendered":"Relative importance of carbon dioxide and water in the greenhouse effect: Does the tail wag the dog?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his paper, \u201cRelative Importance of Carbon Dioxide and Water in the Greenhouse Effect: Does the Tail Wag the Dog?\u201d<\/a><\/em>, Demetris Koutsoyiannis explores the greenhouse effect\u2019s primary drivers, positing that water vapor and clouds vastly overshadow carbon dioxide (CO\u2082) in terms of their contribution. Using a radiative transfer model (MODTRAN), Koutsoyiannis analyzes downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation and derives macroscopic relationships that express greenhouse gas effects quantitatively. His calculations suggest that water vapor and clouds contribute between 87% to 95% of the greenhouse effect, while CO\u2082\u2019s impact is only around 4% to 5%. The findings also indicate that recent increases in atmospheric CO\u2082, from 300 to 420 ppm, contribute negligibly\u2014an effect quantified at just 0.5% for both downwelling and outgoing radiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using a detailed atmospheric radiative transfer model, we derive macroscopic relationships of downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation which enable determining the partial derivatives thereof with respect to the explanatory variables that represent the greenhouse gases. We validate these macroscopic relationships using empirical formulae based on downwelling radiation data, commonly used in hydrology, and satellite data for the outgoing radiation. We use the relationships and their partial derivatives to infer the relative importance of carbon dioxide and water vapour in the greenhouse effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results show that the contribution of the former is 4% \u2013 5%, while water and clouds dominate with a contribution of 87% \u2013 95%. The minor effect of carbon dioxide is confirmed by the small, non-discernible effect of the recent escalation of atmospheric CO\u2082 concentration from 300 to 420 ppm. This effect is quantified at 0.5% for both downwelling and outgoing radiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Water and clouds also perform other important functions in climate, such as regulating heat storage and albedo, as well as cooling the Earth\u2019s surface through latent heat transfer, contributing 50%. By confirming the major role of water on climate, these results suggest that hydrology should have a more prominent and more active role in climate research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keywords: Greenhouse effect; longwave radiation; water vapour; carbon dioxide; evaporation radiative forcing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Submitted 2024-09-22, Accepted 2024-10-28. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.53234\/scc202411\/01<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A good rule of thumb to keep in mind is that anything that calls itself \u2018science\u2019 probably isn\u2019t.
J.R. Searle (1984)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The paper positions these findings in opposition to the widely held view that CO\u2082 is the critical driver of Earth\u2019s greenhouse effect. Koutsoyiannis argues that water\u2019s abundance and rapid hydrological cycling allow it to dominate atmospheric temperature regulation, effectively acting as the primary greenhouse gas. He claims that the historical focus on CO\u2082 has skewed climate research, diminishing hydrology\u2019s role and limiting a complete understanding of climate dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Koutsoyiannis also critiques the mainstream climate science perspective, which he suggests has become too intertwined with political agendas. He points to discussions in prominent journals that frame CO\u2082 as the \u201ccontrol knob\u201d of climate, a narrative he finds unsupported by empirical evidence. By applying his model, he challenges the assertion that removing CO\u2082 would dramatically alter Earth\u2019s climate; instead, he contends that water vapor would continue to regulate temperature through its dominant greenhouse effect and short atmospheric residence time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study incorporates data from ERA5 Reanalysis and satellite-based radiation measurements, specifically the CERES project, for validation. These datasets provide insight into radiation profiles and support the author\u2019s argument that water vapor\u2019s regional variability and rapid cycling enable it to exert a powerful greenhouse effect that CO\u2082 cannot match.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Koutsoyiannis acknowledges that the hypothetical removal of CO\u2082, often discussed in theoretical studies, lacks empirical backing, as CO\u2082 has consistently been a part of Earth\u2019s atmosphere over geological timescales. He also contrasts the rapid turnover of water vapor with CO\u2082\u2019s longer residence time, highlighting the latter\u2019s well-mixed nature across the atmosphere as a potential reason why its warming effects appear diffused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through his analysis, Koutsoyiannis calls for a reorientation of climate research, urging the scientific community to afford greater attention to hydrology and to reconsider CO\u2082\u2019s central role in climate models. He concludes that the understanding of Earth\u2019s climate may be limited by the current emphasis on CO\u2082 emissions, which he argues overlooks the nuanced and regionally specific effects of water vapor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In sum, \u201cDoes the Tail Wag the Dog?\u201d<\/em> is a critique of prevailing climate science paradigms, advocating for a model that recognizes water vapor and clouds as the foremost greenhouse agents while downplaying CO\u2082\u2019s overall effect. Koutsoyiannis\u2019s paper encourages a shift in climate research focus toward hydrology and questions the mainstream positioning of CO\u2082 as the cornerstone of climate change theory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, Koutsoyiannis has posted reviewers comments from his earlier attempts to publish in other journals.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

This file is the Supplementary Information of the paper \u201cRelative importance of carbon dioxide and water in the greenhouse effect: Does the tail wag the dog?\u201d It contains interesting material as it demonstrates the current practices of silencing voices that disagree with mainstream opinions, which are purported to be science. The contained materials include the rejection files from three journals, namely Hydrological Sciences Journal, MDPI Hydrology and Ecohydrology and Engineering. The document contains all reviews and replies to them, as well as key exchanges with the journal\u2019s Editorial Offices. Replies to reviews are contained in the case that the Editor accepted the request to rebut them\u2014otherwise no replies were prepared. [See the paper at:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/385590387<\/a>]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In his paper,\u00a0\u201cRelative Importance of Carbon Dioxide and Water in the Greenhouse Effect: Does the Tail Wag the Dog?\u201d, Demetris Koutsoyiannis explores the greenhouse effect\u2019s primary drivers, positing that water vapor and clouds vastly overshadow carbon dioxide (CO\u2082) in terms of their contribution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":350654,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691827130,691831390,691818296,691824888,691822386],"class_list":{"0":"post-350651","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","9":"tag-demetris-koutsoyiannis","10":"tag-greenhouse-effect","11":"tag-longwave-radiation","12":"tag-water","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-clouds-on-the-sky.jpeg?fit=4288%2C2848&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1tdF","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":368744,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368744","url_meta":{"origin":350651,"position":0},"title":"IR-Active Gases: H2O Potent, CO2\u00a0Feeble","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Using a detailed atmospheric radiative transfer model, we derive macroscopic relationships of downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation\u00a0which enable determining the partial derivatives thereof with respect to the explanatory variables that represent the greenhouse gases. We\u00a0validate\u00a0these macroscopic relationships using empirical formulae\u00a0based on downwelling radiation data,\u00a0commonly used in hydrology,\u00a0and satellite data for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00koutsoyiannis-ghgs-lw-impact.png?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351059,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351059","url_meta":{"origin":350651,"position":1},"title":"\u00a0New Study: Human Contribution To Enhancement Of Earth\u2019s Greenhouse Effect A Negligible 0.2 Percent","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[T]he contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect is 4% \u2013 5%. 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Along the way it also says repeatedly and falsely that carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gases (except water vapor) are pollution.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2 Endangerment Finding\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2 Endangerment Finding","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2-endangerment-finding"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0205048825_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0205048825_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0205048825_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0205048825_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0205048825_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/350651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=350651"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/350651\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":350656,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/350651\/revisions\/350656"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/350654"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=350651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=350651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=350651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}