{"id":348716,"date":"2024-10-24T13:59:30","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T11:59:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348716"},"modified":"2024-10-24T13:59:32","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T11:59:32","slug":"2023s-record-temperatures-were-not-driven-by-co2-emissions-new-science-paper-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348716","title":{"rendered":"2023\u2019s \u2018Record Temperatures\u2019 Were Not Driven by CO2 Emissions, New Science Paper Finds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Chris Morrison<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is becoming increasingly obvious to serious climate scientists that sudden changes in temperature and weather cannot be directly attributed to any long-term effect of warming caused by human-produced \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gases. Suggestions to the contrary are best left to climate comedy-turn Jim \u2018jail the deniers\u2019 Dale and the guided hands writing most mainstream media copy. Last year saw a large spike upwards in global \u2018hottest year ever\u2019 temperatures and alarmism went into overdrive. But a recent paper<\/a> published by the EU weather service Copernicus shows that the warming spike was driven by a strong, naturally occurring El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> oscillation. Furthermore, the 0.29\u00b0C spike is not unprecedented in the observation record since a slightly larger rise occurred in 1976-77.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Copernicus paper published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics<\/em> is of particular interest because it makes a connection between a strong El Ni\u00f1o <\/em>developing across the southern hemisphere after a prolonged La Ni\u00f1a<\/em>. El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> is the positive phase of the ENSO natural climate variation, while La Ni\u00f1a<\/em>, which tends to lower temperatures, is the corresponding negative episode. In the years around 2023 and 1976, a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> occurred after a prolonged La Ni\u00f1a<\/em> phase. In 1976 the spike was even higher at a reported 0.31\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The work published through Copernicus is firmly in the mainstream, so the seemingly obligatory reference is made to the unproven suggestion that global temperatures since 1950 have been rising \u201cprincipally due to human activities\u201d. This may well be the considered opinion of the scientists involved, conveniently so since such work is unlikely to be published with a different take on the politicised \u2018settled\u2019 climate science behind the Net Zero project. However the authors point out that the recent temperature spike has been a societal cause for concern, not least because its causes \u201care not obvious\u201d. Thankfully such doubts do not unduly cloud the judgements of those engaged in important Net Zero work, including Jim Dale, Justin Rowlatt of the BBC and George Monbiot of the Guardian<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There has been a recent scrabble in climate circles to explain the temperature spike, given the lack of scientific proof linking it to rises in just one trace atmospheric gas, namely carbon dioxide. The authors note the recent reduction in atmospheric particulates or aerosols caused by cleaner marine fuels, increased solar activity and the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano eruption and the associated boost to upper atmosphere water vapour. But they come down on the side of the argument that \u201cENSO is the primary reason for the global warming spikes\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their conclusion is based on two significant recent observations, but they attempt to back up their work by citing the findings of climate models. Such computer models have a poor track record since they are frequently used to provide cover for pre-prepared narratives and conclusions. Whether they can provide useful or conclusive information on the chaotic, non-linear atmosphere is a subject for endless argument, but they are the best we have for attempting to measure climate mechanisms. In their paper, the scientists show that climate models that are subject only to internal variability can generate temperature spikes, although they are an uncommon occurrence. But when a prolonged La Ni\u00f1a<\/em> immediately precedes an El Ni\u00f1o <\/em>in the simulations, as occurred in 1976 and 2023, \u201csuch spikes become much more common\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThus, our results underscore the importance of the El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>-Southern Oscillation driving the occurrence of global warming spikes such as the one in 2023, without needing to invoke anthropogenic forcing, such as changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or aerosols, as an explanation,\u201d they conclude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have been a number of scientific papers trying to understand the recent temperature spike, although some are inconvenient in failing to support the \u2018boiling\u2019 trope and are therefore ignored in the mainstream. As the Daily Sceptic<\/em> recently reported<\/a>, a detailed paper from a group of mathematicians and scientists published in Nature<\/em> found \u201climited evidence\u201d for a global warming surge over the last the last 50 years. \u201cNo change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected despite the breaking record temperatures observed in 2023,\u201d they wrote. It is important to consider random noise caused by natural variation when investigating the recent pauses in temperature, and the more recent \u201calleged warming acceleration,\u201d they argued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of which, of course, helps knock on the head the fast-emerging pseudoscience of weather attribution. These whackadoodle weather findings of computer models attributing individual events to long-term changes in the climate caused by humans feature heavily in mainstream media. In the absence of scientific backing, notably from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change despite its usually alarmist outlook, their political job is to help catastrophise natural events such as hurricanes, flooding and droughts. They are pseudoscience since their claims cannot be disproved or falsified. They are outside the scientific process and are simply opinions. The distinguished climate writer Roger Pielke Jr. calls them \u201cweather attribution alchemy\u201d. It says it all that they are now the main instrument used to alarm and scare populations into believing in a non-existent climate crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the <\/em>Daily Sceptic\u2019s<\/em> Environmental Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is becoming increasingly obvious to serious climate scientists that sudden changes in temperature and weather cannot be directly attributed to any long-term effect of warming caused by human-produced \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gases. Suggestions to the contrary are best left to climate comedy-turn Jim \u2018jail the deniers\u2019 Dale and the guided hands writing most mainstream media copy. Last year saw a large spike upwards in global \u2018hottest year ever\u2019 temperatures and alarmism went into overdrive. But a recent paper published by the EU weather service Copernicus shows that the warming spike was driven by a strong, naturally occurring El Ni\u00f1o oscillation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":348720,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823626,691819134,691818153,691819287,691818514,691819075,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-348716","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-attribution-studies","9":"tag-climate-alarmism","10":"tag-climate-models","11":"tag-el-nino-2","12":"tag-extreme-weather","13":"tag-modelling","14":"tag-net-zero","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0iconic_ENSO_elNino_lrg.jpg?fit=3010%2C1650&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1sIs","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":238944,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=238944","url_meta":{"origin":348716,"position":0},"title":"Climate change makes heat waves, storms and droughts worse\u2013Say weather attribution models","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Weather attribution has been politicised since its early beginnings, and is undertaken for the express purpose of linking extreme weather to climate change. 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