{"id":348644,"date":"2024-10-24T08:18:50","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T06:18:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348644"},"modified":"2024-10-24T08:18:53","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T06:18:53","slug":"new-paper-methane-concentration-increase-not-related-to-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348644","title":{"rendered":"New Paper: Methane Concentration Increase Not Related to Fossil Fuels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2411212121<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The growth rate of the atmospheric abundance of methane (CH4<\/sub>) reached a record high of 15.4 ppb yr\u22121<\/sup> between 2020 and 2022, but the mechanisms driving the accelerated CH4<\/sub> growth have so far been unclear. In this work, we use measurements of the 13<\/sup>C:12<\/sup>C ratio of CH4<\/sub> (expressed as \u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub>) from NOAA\u2019s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and a box model to investigate potential drivers for the rapid CH4<\/sub> growth. These measurements show that the record-high CH4<\/sub> growth in 2020\u20132022 was accompanied by a sharp decline in \u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub>, indicating that the increase in CH4<\/sub> abundance was mainly driven by increased emissions from microbial sources such as wetlands, waste, and agriculture<\/strong>. We use our box model to reject increasing fossil fuel emissions or decreasing hydroxyl radical sink as the dominant driver for increasing global methane abundance.
https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2411212121<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n

Methane (CH4<\/sub>) is the second-most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas and has global warming potential (GWP) of 28 over 100 y (1<\/a>); as a result, CH4<\/sub> has consequential near-term radiative effects and is a prominent target for mitigation (2<\/a>). Following a short pause in growth from 1999 to 2006, both the abundance and growth rate of atmospheric methane have been increasing (3<\/a>). During 2020\u20132022, the observed CH4<\/sub> growth rate reached a record high since NOAA measurements began in 1983, averaging 15.4 \u00b1 0.6 ppb yr\u22121<\/sup> (4<\/a>). Understanding the mechanisms driving this accelerated growth is essential for predicting its future climate impact and providing scientific support for climate mitigation strategies (2<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The carbon isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4<\/sub> (\u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub>) is a powerful tool for tracking the sources and sinks of atmospheric CH4<\/sub>. Different CH4<\/sub> sources have distinctive \u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub> values: Microbial CH4<\/sub> emissions (wetlands, livestock, landfills, etc.) have lower \u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub> values (global mean of \u201362\u2030) than pyrogenic (biomass and biofuel burning, global mean of \u201324\u2030) and fossil fuel CH4<\/sub> emissions (global mean of \u201345\u2030) (5<\/a>). Various sinks of atmospheric CH4<\/sub> also have distinctive isotopic effects. Therefore, combined observations of atmospheric CH4<\/sub> mole fraction and \u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub> can provide unique constraints on the changes of global CH4<\/sub> sources and sinks during the post-2006 rapid CH4<\/sub> growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Global Monitoring Laboratory (NOAA\/GML) has been carefully monitoring the global CH4<\/sub> burden through the Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) for over four decades. The collaboration between NOAA\/GML and the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at the University of Colorado Boulder has enabled \u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub> measurements from the GGGRN since 1998, currently measuring weekly or biweekly from 22 globally distributed background sites (6<\/a>). The dataset has been widely used for studying the evolution of global CH4<\/sub> sources and sinks (7<\/a>\u20139<\/a>). Here, we report our most recent observations of atmospheric CH4<\/sub> mole fractions and \u03b4<\/em>13<\/sup>CCH4<\/sub> values through the end of 2022 and then use a box model to examine and quantify the contributions of potential drivers of the record-high CH4<\/sub> growth rate.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The rest of the paper can be found here.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is unlikely to mollify climate zealots as agriculture is listed among the potential causes. With biological activity exploding across the world, due to CO2 fertilization, I personally wonder how much of this is increasing wetland productivity as well as flourishing soil microbes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\/T Steve Milloy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new paper just published in the PNAS identifies different culprits.
\nThis is unlikely to mollify climate zealots as agriculture is listed among the potential causes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":348648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820981,691826963,691831083,691831084,691818397],"class_list":{"0":"post-348644","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-co2-fertilization-2","9":"tag-methane-ch4","10":"tag-microbial-sources","11":"tag-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administrations-global-monitoring-laboratory-noaa-gml","12":"tag-noaa","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0see-vogel-sonnenuntergang-himmel.jpg?fit=1920%2C1284&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1sHi","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":348695,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348695","url_meta":{"origin":348644,"position":0},"title":"Mysterious record methane surge since 2020 was not fossil fuels but \u201c90% due to microbes\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Methane \u2014 the second most hated Greenhouse gas \u2014 spiked to record historic levels in the last few years, over 1,900 parts per billion. In 2019, even the WEF scientists admitted they couldn\u2019t explain the baffling rise, and then in 2020, the world of methane went into the twilight zone.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0methane_patrick-pleul-picture-alliance-getty-2048x1482-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C868&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0methane_patrick-pleul-picture-alliance-getty-2048x1482-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C868&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0methane_patrick-pleul-picture-alliance-getty-2048x1482-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C868&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0methane_patrick-pleul-picture-alliance-getty-2048x1482-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C868&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0methane_patrick-pleul-picture-alliance-getty-2048x1482-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C868&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":300680,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300680","url_meta":{"origin":348644,"position":1},"title":"Hurricane Category 6?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The\u00a0PNAS\u00a0reasoning was that a few Pacific Hurricanes (aka tropical cyclones) have exceeded SF level 5. True, sort of. All 5 cited by PNAS only temporarily exceeded Cat 5. For example, quoting from the new paper, \u201cThe most intense of these hypothetical Cat 6 storms, Patricia, hit landfall in Jalisco, Mexico\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0hurricane-patricia.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0hurricane-patricia.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0hurricane-patricia.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0hurricane-patricia.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0hurricane-patricia.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":330571,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330571","url_meta":{"origin":348644,"position":2},"title":"The Ideological Capture of Academia: Scientific Censorship Motivated by Prosocial Concerns","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"An article published last November from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) titled \u201cProsocial Motives Underlie Scientific Censorship by Scientists: A Perspective and Research Agenda\u201d exposes a profound issue within the scientific community\u2014censorship driven by ideological motives under the guise of prosocial concerns. This phenomenon has far-reaching\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Censorship\"","block_context":{"text":"Censorship","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=censorship"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Screenshot-2023-09-09-155955.png?fit=1052%2C594&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Screenshot-2023-09-09-155955.png?fit=1052%2C594&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Screenshot-2023-09-09-155955.png?fit=1052%2C594&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Screenshot-2023-09-09-155955.png?fit=1052%2C594&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Screenshot-2023-09-09-155955.png?fit=1052%2C594&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":294631,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294631","url_meta":{"origin":348644,"position":3},"title":"If fossil fuels come from fossils, why have scientists found them on one of Saturn\u2019s moons?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr Willie Soon unleashes on the failures of climate change and modern science for 40 minutes with Tucker Carlson (see below). As an opening he explained how one of Saturn\u2019s moons has more liquid fuel than than all the oil and gas deposits of Earth, which rather pokes a hole\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"benzene\"","block_context":{"text":"benzene","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=benzene"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0titan_large.jpg?fit=1200%2C906&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0titan_large.jpg?fit=1200%2C906&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0titan_large.jpg?fit=1200%2C906&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0titan_large.jpg?fit=1200%2C906&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0titan_large.jpg?fit=1200%2C906&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":339568,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339568","url_meta":{"origin":348644,"position":4},"title":"Roger Pielke Jr. details \u2018The Top Five Climate Science Scandals\u2019: Study claiming no \u2018climate crisis\u2019 retracted \u2018for not for being wrong\u2026but instead for expressing views that are politically unhelpful\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The science community has shown a willingness to retract a climate science paper \u2014 in this case not for being wrong in any substantive way, but instead for expressing views that are politically unhelpful. In 2022, a group of Italian scientists published a paper that summarized the IPCC\u2019s conclusions on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Screenshot-2024-08-14-152601.png?fit=1200%2C699&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Screenshot-2024-08-14-152601.png?fit=1200%2C699&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Screenshot-2024-08-14-152601.png?fit=1200%2C699&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Screenshot-2024-08-14-152601.png?fit=1200%2C699&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0Screenshot-2024-08-14-152601.png?fit=1200%2C699&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":376604,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376604","url_meta":{"origin":348644,"position":5},"title":"The Flawed ICAT Hurricane Loss Dataset: A Call for Scientific Integrity in Climate Research","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a compelling study published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (April 2025), Roger Pielke Jr., previously a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder and now a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor emeritus, exposes critical flaws in a widely used dataset of U.S.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"ICAT dataset\"","block_context":{"text":"ICAT dataset","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=icat-dataset"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Eye-Of-A-Hurricane-header.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Eye-Of-A-Hurricane-header.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Eye-Of-A-Hurricane-header.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Eye-Of-A-Hurricane-header.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Eye-Of-A-Hurricane-header.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=348644"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348644\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":348650,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348644\/revisions\/348650"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/348648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=348644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=348644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=348644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}