{"id":346254,"date":"2024-10-10T15:20:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T13:20:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346254"},"modified":"2024-10-10T15:20:09","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T13:20:09","slug":"hurricane-milton-is-historic-but-not-unprecedented-nor-climate-driven","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346254","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Milton is Historic, but Not Unprecedented, Nor Climate Driven"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Heartland Institute<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Editor\u2019s Note:<\/strong> Even as Hurricane Milton has borne down on Florida\u2019s gulf coast, the mainstream media, such as, NBC News<\/a>,  The Atlantic<\/a>, and NPR<\/a>, to name a few outlets, have been hyping the claim that Milton is an unprecedented event, that would not have happened had humans not caused climate change. These claims are false as the press release below explains in detail.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Press Release from The Heartland Institute<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It is wrong to blame human activity and \u2018climate change\u2019 for strength of hurricane<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Storms of similar size and strength hit Tampa Bay area in 1848 and 1921 when human contributions to carbon dioxide in atmosphere was negligible<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the United Nations\u2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says there\u2019s no climate signal in tropical storms<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL (October 8, 2024) \u2013 Hurricane Milton is on track Wednesday to be one of the biggest storms to ever hit the Tampa Bay, Florida area, and is one of the few Category 5 hurricanes on record in the satellite era (1966-onwards). It may join Hurricane Michael in 2018 as the only Category 5 hurricanes to form in the Gulf of Mexico in October and make landfall at that strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the history of Gulf hurricanes growing this strong and making a direct hit on Tampa Bay shows this is a rare occurrence, it is not unprecedented and \u201cclimate change\u201d driven by human emissions of carbon dioxide is not to blame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate and environment experts at The Heartland Institute \u2013 James Taylor, Anthony Watts, H. Sterling Burnett, Linnea Lueken, and Steven Milloy \u2013 are available to the media to provide historical context for this storm.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

They provide quotes below the following facts and perspective section of this release. To reach them for comment, please contact Vice President and Director of Communications Jim Lakely at media@heartland.org<\/a> or call\/text 312-731-9364.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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FACT: Milton not without precedent<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Storms of similar size and strength struck the Tampa Bay area in 1848<\/a> and 1921<\/a>. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has tracked at least 146 hurricanes that have formed in the Gulf since 1851.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Historical data show there has been little to no long-term trend since 1900 in Florida major hurricane activity through Hurricane Helene, which hit the panhandle last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People born in the 1950s or later did not experience the record-high hurricane activity of the 1940s, and the early 1900s activity was likely under-reported as virtually no one lived in Florida in 1900.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following plot shows the intensity of major hurricanes (100 knots or greater maximum sustained wind speed) striking Florida since 1900, updated through Helene:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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FACT: No trend in hurricane \u201cintensification\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many may claim that the rapid intensification of Milton is unprecedented. That is also false. As the chart below shows \u2013 based on a study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters<\/em> \u2013 there is no significant upward trend in \u201crapid intensification\u201d in hurricanes that form in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico in the last 33 years.<\/p>\n\n\n

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FACT: No upward trend in hurricane activity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also no upward trend in global cyclone activity since 1980.<\/p>\n\n\n

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FACT: IPCC says no climate signal in tropical storms<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate science itself says there is no connection between climate change and hurricane strength or frequency. In Table 12.12 on Page 90<\/a> \u2013 Chapter 12 of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (2023). Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers<\/a> (CIDs) in time periods, shows no indication of a connection in the present, nor in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The color in the table below corresponds to the confidence of the region with the highest confidence: white colors indicate where evidence of a climate change signal is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overall low confidence of an emerging signal. Note the colors for Tropical Cyclones in the table screencap below:<\/p>\n\n\n

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The following statements may be used with attribution. For more information about historical trends, please visit The Heartland Institute\u2019s Climate at a Glance website<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n