{"id":346242,"date":"2024-10-10T09:43:59","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T07:43:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346242"},"modified":"2024-10-10T09:44:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-10T07:44:02","slug":"roger-pielke-on-weather-attribution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346242","title":{"rendered":"Roger Pielke on Weather\u00a0Attribution"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"251\" data-attachment-id=\"346246\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=346246\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C887&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2560,887\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1681990683&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?fit=723%2C251&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?resize=723%2C251&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-346246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?resize=1024%2C355&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?resize=300%2C104&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?resize=768%2C266&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?resize=1536%2C532&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?resize=2048%2C710&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?resize=1200%2C416&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com\/2024\/10\/08\/roger-pielke-on-weather-attribution\/#more-75770\">NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Roger Pielke Jr looks at the science (or not!) behind extreme weather attribution:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"238\" data-attachment-id=\"346243\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=346243\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-296.png?fit=1024%2C337&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,337\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-296.png?fit=723%2C238&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-296.png?resize=723%2C238&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-346243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-296.png?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-296.png?resize=300%2C99&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-296.png?resize=768%2C253&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>In the aftermath of many high profile extreme weather events we see headlines like the following:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/czvvqdg8zxno\"><em>Climate change made US and Mexico heatwave 35 times more likely<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0\u2014 BBC<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/09\/24\/climate\/climate-change-europe-floods-boris.html\"><em>Study Finds Climate Change Doubled Likelihood of Recent European Floods<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0\u2014 NYT<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-01-24\/severe-amazon-drought-was-made-30-times-more-likely-by-climate-change\"><em>Severe Amazon Drought was Made 30 Times More Likely by Climate Change<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0\u2014 Bloomberg<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>For those who closely follow climate science and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such headlines can be difficult to make sense of because neither the IPCC nor the underlying scientific literature comes anywhere close to making such strong and certain claims of attribution.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>How then might we understand such high profile claims?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read his full analysis&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/weather-attribution-alchemy?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=119454&amp;post_id=149917652&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=8t843&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His take away message is that weather attribution from the outset was deliberately intended for political and media purposes. It was introduced because the IPCC was able to find any real evidence that weather was actually getting more extreme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>First, event attribution research is a form of&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/weaponizing-peer-review\"><em>tactical science<\/em><\/a><em>&nbsp;\u2014 research performed explicitly to serve legal and political ends. This is not my opinion, but has been openly stated on many occasions by the researchers who developed and perform event attribution research.<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/weather-attribution-alchemy?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=119454&amp;post_id=149917652&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=8t843&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email#footnote-2-149917652\"><em>2<\/em><\/a><em>&nbsp;Such research is not always subjected to peer review, and this is&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/ascmo.copernicus.org\/articles\/6\/177\/2020\/ascmo-6-177-2020.pdf\"><em>often by design<\/em><\/a><em>&nbsp;as peer-review takes much longer than the news cycle. Instead, event attribution studies are generally promoted via press release.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>For instance, researchers behind the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-021-03071-7\"><em>explain&nbsp;<\/em><\/a><em>that one of their key motives in conducting such studies is, \u201cincreasing the \u2018immediacy\u2019 of climate change, thereby increasing support for mitigation.\u201d WWA\u2019s chief scientist,&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/subscriber.politicopro.com\/article\/eenews\/1060775163\"><em>Friederike Otto, explains<\/em><\/a><em>, \u201cUnlike every other branch of climate science or science in general, event attribution was actually originally suggested with the courts in mind.\u201d Another oft-quoted scientist who performs rapid attribution analyses,&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/thinkprogress.org\/trump-says-florence-is-just-mother-nature-a-stunning-new-climate-study-says-hes-wrong-7bf6311110be\/\"><em>Michael Wehner<\/em><\/a><em>, summarized their importance (emphasis in original) \u2014 \u201cThe most important message from this (and previous) analyses is that \u201c<strong>Dangerous climate change is here now!<\/strong>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It has certainly been successful in its objective. I can personally confirm that the BBC routinely not only headlines attribution claims as if they were fact, they even use them to reject my complaints, even when the actual data shows them to be false. To them, attribution claims and facts are interchangeable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Roger Pielke Jr looks at the science (or not!) behind extreme weather attribution<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":346246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691820922,691824483,691830867,691830866],"class_list":{"0":"post-346242","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc","10":"tag-roger-pielke-jr","11":"tag-tactical-science","12":"tag-weather-attribution","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0raychel-sanner-cswvKS59E90-unsplash-1-1-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C887&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1s4y","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":294439,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294439","url_meta":{"origin":346242,"position":0},"title":"Major U.S. Disaster Database That Was Quoted by President Biden as Proof of Climate Change is Slammed as an \u201cEgregious Failure of Scientific Inquiry\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The findings from this database have fuelled climate alarm for decades, and it is widely quoted by scientific journals, media and politicians.","rel":"","context":"In \"Attribution studies\"","block_context":{"text":"Attribution studies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=attribution-studies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00tornado-supercell-evening-stock.jpg?fit=1200%2C847&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00tornado-supercell-evening-stock.jpg?fit=1200%2C847&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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Science","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bad-science"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0home-run-clipart-14.jpg?fit=1200%2C942&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":238944,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=238944","url_meta":{"origin":346242,"position":2},"title":"Climate change makes heat waves, storms and droughts worse\u2013Say weather attribution models","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Weather attribution has been politicised since its early beginnings, and is undertaken for the express purpose of linking extreme weather to climate change. It should not be confused with real science.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-451.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-451.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-451.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-451.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-451.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":400274,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=400274","url_meta":{"origin":346242,"position":3},"title":"\u2018Science is Not Team Sport\u2019 \u2013 \u2018The blue team response to DOE (climate report) shows that climate assessment is broken\u2019- Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I took a look at the DK25 (Trump Admin's DOE dissenting climate) report in my areas of expertise, as\u00a0I did with the DOE CWG (85 scientists pushing back on DOE report), and I found numerous statements that were simply false \u2014 among them that World Weather Attribution was not created\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN9eX2H9tTiyTsG-y-lu63mhoKIA_vYbA6o45Wmi4zKU3vdGk7wOAMAr4YEyB4W3edJhgLtbF06J9It2OayUiZWqkv2VLBSHZ__PQpPDPl2rVAoiKmwI3vX2vJcoU8dzaUineDyOKskw8VoH1dIikCCEnqkJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN9eX2H9tTiyTsG-y-lu63mhoKIA_vYbA6o45Wmi4zKU3vdGk7wOAMAr4YEyB4W3edJhgLtbF06J9It2OayUiZWqkv2VLBSHZ__PQpPDPl2rVAoiKmwI3vX2vJcoU8dzaUineDyOKskw8VoH1dIikCCEnqkJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN9eX2H9tTiyTsG-y-lu63mhoKIA_vYbA6o45Wmi4zKU3vdGk7wOAMAr4YEyB4W3edJhgLtbF06J9It2OayUiZWqkv2VLBSHZ__PQpPDPl2rVAoiKmwI3vX2vJcoU8dzaUineDyOKskw8VoH1dIikCCEnqkJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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