{"id":345787,"date":"2024-10-07T16:38:42","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T14:38:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=345787"},"modified":"2024-10-07T16:38:45","modified_gmt":"2024-10-07T14:38:45","slug":"ruling-class-energy-ignorance-is-a-global-wrecking-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=345787","title":{"rendered":"Ruling-class energy ignorance is a global wrecking ball"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The BOE Report<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Terry Etam<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the US resides a guy who\u2019s academic and professional credentials are as impressive and impeccable as one can assemble in a career. His Wikipedia professional\/academic bio<\/a> shows top-level roles at a who\u2019s who of globally significant institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Larry Summers has been: student at MIT, PhD from Harvard, US Secretary of the Treasury, director of the National Economic Council, president of Harvard University, Chief Economist of the World Bank, US federal Under Secretary for International Affairs in the Department of Treasury, a managing partner at a hedge fund, and is now on the board of OpenAI. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet\u2026just a few weeks ago, Larry Summers made a comment about a bedrock of the economy seems so fundamentally bad that it is enough to shake one\u2019s faith in every one of those institutions. He was talking about whether the US should create a Sovereign Wealth Fund, which is kind of like a national savings account that governments squirrel money into in order to fund future projects or spending requirements. They are very great things indeed, reflecting the wisdom of having savings for a rainy day, but given how politicians love to spend not just the money that they have but everything they can borrow, the idea seems kind of quaintly hopeless in the first place, even though some countries have accomplished it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the shocking part of this story is why Summers was against the idea; here\u2019s his quote: \u201cIt\u2019s one thing if you\u2019re Norway or the Emirates \u2014 that has this huge natural resource that\u2019s going to run out that you\u2019re exporting\u2014 to accumulate a big wealth fund. But we\u2019ve got a big trade deficit. We\u2019ve got a big, budget deficit\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He\u2019s absolutely right about the US\u2019 financial woes; our dear southern neighbour is currently the equivalent of a 28-year-old guy twice divorced with 8 kids between 4 women who is working at the lumber yard and juggles 14 credit cards simultaneously (definitely not implying Canada is much better\u2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No, he\u2019s right that those are the biggest fiscal issues to deal with, but what\u2019s crazy is the other part of his statement. He says that Norway and the Emirates should create sovereign wealth funds because they \u2018have this huge resource that\u2019s going to run out that you\u2019re exporting<\/em><\/strong>\u2019 and thus can\/should accumulate a big wealth fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Summers apparently does not understand either depleting natural resources, or the US\u2019 economic powerhouse status due to these resources, or both. Either fact is shocking, given his stature; but his analysis of the situation gives a clue about why major western powers are in such shambles with respect to energy policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Mr. Summers presumably meant is that the US does not have an economy that is dominated by export of a natural resource, such as how oil or natural gas exports are not a fundamental pillar of the economy as with Norway or the Emirates. And yes, the US does have other desperately needed uses for the money derived from exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But he seems to think the US is immune from its resources \u2018running out\u2019. He doesn\u2019t seem to understand that while the US economy may not be dominated by oil\/gas exports, the problem of resource depletion will not matter to the US because it does not dominate the economy. That is the charitable interpretation; the less kind one is that he may well believe that the US will never run out of affordable hydrocarbons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s easy to see where he and other policy makers get the idea. If they think about petroleum reserves at all, they would find coverage in the general mainstream financial press, in publications such as Forbes, a standard of US economic communications that claims over 5 million readers through 43 global editions. The publication is aimed at<\/a> the who\u2019s who of the financial world: \u201cForbes is #1 within the business & finance competitive set for reaching influential decision-makers.\u201d It is exactly what a guy like Summers would turn to to understand the US\u2019 resource capability (I doubt he spends much time understanding rock quality).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is what Forbes had to say about the US\u2019 hydrocarbon reserves. In an article entitled U.S. Shale Oil and Natural Gas, Underestimated Its Whole Life,<\/em> the author chronicles how forecasts of US shale potential have been continually underestimating productive capability. Fair enough, that is definitely true. But the extrapolations\/conclusions are pretty wild, and, dangerous: \u201c\u2026the reality is that shale production [for both oil and natural gas] has surpassed all expectations namely through the constant advance of technologies and improvement of operations\u2026In fact, the Shale Revolution has shown us that the amount of oil and gas we can produce is essentially unlimited<\/em><\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not a bad article on the whole, when it describes how we\u2019ve underestimated shale growth, but these silly concluding assumptions are not good at all. They\u2019re soundbites that reach far more ears because of the source than true expertise from industry journals (including, ahem, this excellent one).  Those soundbites are what lodge in the minds of people like Larry Summers when he huddles with his global cohort to discuss energy policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider as an alternative analysis something far more thoughtful and thus less dead-certain, such as the work of Novi Labs, who put out incredibly detailed reports that analyze production trends, with a key difference from Forbes: Novi bases their projections on actual well data, well spacing, well productivity, well length, gas\/oil ratios, rock quality, and many other parameters. For example, Novi recently published a paper entitled \u201cAnalyzing Midland Basin Well Performance and Future Outlook with Machine Learning<\/a>\u201d in which they conclude that, based on the above parameters and more, that the Midland Basin has about 25,000 future locations remaining, and breaks them out into prices required to develop them, and has the wisdom to conclude: \u201cDue to the Permian Basin\u2019s role as the marginal growth barrel, overestimating the remaining resources will have consequences spanning from price spikes to energy security and geopolitics.<\/em><\/strong>\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on such incredibly detailed analyses, Novi is comfortable making, for example, Permian oil\/gas production out to the year 2030. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forbes is comfortable making oil\/gas production forecasts to infinity, based on nothing more than a string of failed projections. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And people head off into the highest levels of government having read Forbes but not Novi. And we get Germany. And Canada. And etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This isn\u2019t a question about whether we will \u201crun out of oil\u201d. The surest way to rile an audience it seems \u2013 just behind challenging EV superiority \u2013 is to question the ultimate productive capability of hydrocarbon resources. \u201cPeak oil\u201d is now a term of derision, in some ways rightly so because many smart people have, over time, warned that resources are about to run out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It does seem erroneous to think that way, because as prices for something rise, more exploration will occur, and by definition we don\u2019t know what those discoveries will encounter. Could be a little, could be a lot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The point here is best explained by way of a real life example. A long time ago, late last century, natural gas was dirt cheap across western Canada. (Bizarrely, it\u2019s even cheaper now, but not consistently so.) In Saskatchewan where (and when) I grew up, an alfalfa processing industry had developed that was a godsend to many small communities. Farmers would grow alfalfa and dedicate the output to a local (often community owned) alfalfa-processing facility that would convert green alfalfa into nutrient-rich pellets for which Japan (primarily) had a seemingly insatiable appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The whole business existed because of the availability of cheap natural gas, which allowed for the rapid and economical dehydration of the green alfalfa; huge drying drums ran around the clock, all summer long, turning huge piles of fresh chopped-alfalfa salad into dried out pellets within 12 hours. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But then natural gas prices soared to unprecedented levels, over $10\/GJ, and found a new average that was probably about twice the average in the 1980s and 1990s. This spike in natural gas prices wiped out the entire industry. Every little town lost a pillar of the community, investors lost investments, municipalities lost tax revenue, and hundreds or maybe even thousands of punks like me lost summer job opportunities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

THAT is what people like Larry Summers should be thinking about when they talk of, or heaven forbid ask questions about, the longevity of our hydrocarbon resources. Yes, there will be oil and natural gas reserves forever \u2013 but at what price? And what will the consequences of higher prices be? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the spring of 2022, some large US trade associations issued warnings<\/a> about the consequences of higher natural gas prices. \u201cLast winter\u2019s heating bills were unsustainable,\u201d said the CEO of the Western Equipment Dealers Association. The winter to which he was referring, 2021-22, had average Henry Hub prices of $4.56\/mmbtu \u2013 far higher than today, but a number that will probably be required over the long term to enable continued US reservoir development and<\/em> feed LNG export demand. 29dk2902lhttps:\/\/boereport.com\/29dk2902l.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That price level of which the CEO was frightened of, it is well worth noting, is a fraction of the global price of LNG. In other words, US industry will freak out if it has to pay even half of what the rest of the world does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a time when the US is desperate to \u2018onshore\u2019 a lot of manufacturing capacity, policy makers should be very careful about \u2018what they know for sure\u2019 about the future of US and Canadian energy productive capability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy ignorance, at these levels of government, are getting deadly. I mean, we can all see Germany, right? It\u2019s turning slapstick, what they\u2019re doing to energy policy, and so many western leaders seem intent on following them. Force the closure of baseload power, force the adoption of intermittent power, watch AI buy up all the power from nuclear sources, claim to support new nuclear power which everyone knows won\u2019t get here for a few decades, then trot off to an annual fall climate conference to tell the world what to do next. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Mark Twain said, \u201cIt ain\u2019t what you don\u2019t know that gets you in trouble. It\u2019s what you know for sure that just ain\u2019t so.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the world desperately needs \u2013 energy clarity. And a few laughs. Pick up The End of Fossil Fuel Insanity,  a<\/em>vailable at <\/em>Amazon.ca<\/a>, <\/em>Indigo.ca<\/a>, or <\/em>Amazon.com.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here,<\/a> or email Terry here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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