{"id":345333,"date":"2024-10-04T07:58:09","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T05:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=345333"},"modified":"2024-10-04T07:58:11","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T05:58:11","slug":"18-yr-plateau-september-arctic-ice-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=345333","title":{"rendered":"18 yr. Plateau September Arctic Ice\u00a02024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

September daily extents are now fully reported and the 2024 September monthly results can be compared with those of the previous 17 years.  MASIE showed 2024 at 4.6M km2  and SII was slightly lower, reaching 4.4M for the month.  Analysis below shows that the 2024 annual Minimum month was 75k km2 lower than the 18 year average, and was 256 km2 greater than 2007.  The 18 yr. trendlines are virtually flat and matching the averages of 4.6M km2 for the period since 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August, 4.27M km2 was the median estimate (range 4.11 to 4.54) for the September monthly average extent from the SIPN (Sea Ice Prediction Network) who use the reports from SII (Sea Ice Index), the NASA team satellite product from passive microwave sensors. The SII actual ice extent average was ~100k km2 higher than estimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The graph below shows September comparisons through day 274 (Sept. 30).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The graph has some unusual things to note. The typical September is shown by the black line, which reaches the daily minimum on day 260 and ends the month ~100k km2 higher than the beginning. 2024 was unusual by matching average the first half, appearing on day 255 to hit minimum, then going above average on day 260.  Surprisingly, the last two weeks MASIE showed a steady loss of ice extent down to a minimum on day 272, and recovering the last two days.  Instead of a slight gain, MASIE showed September 2024 losing ~400k km2 by month end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2007 also started matching average, but went down steeply losing more than half a wadham below average on day 261, then recovering slightly but ending ~800k km2 below average on day 274.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The orange line shows SII starting much lower than MASIE, then the dataset is missing six days mid month. Finally, ice extents rise above MASIE by the end, reaching ~200k km2 above the SII month beginning. I calculated the monthly average for SII from the data provided, though the official number may differ once it is reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table shows ice extents in the regions for 2024, 18 year averages and 2007 for day 274. Averages refer to 2006 through 2023 inclusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region<\/strong><\/td>2024274<\/strong><\/td>Day 274 Ave<\/strong><\/td>2024-Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2007274<\/strong><\/td>2024-2007<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere<\/td>4446117<\/td>5013499<\/td>-567382<\/td>4196873<\/td>249243<\/td><\/tr>
 (1) Beaufort_Sea<\/td>280737<\/td>564271<\/td>-283534<\/td>503548<\/td>-222811<\/td><\/tr>
 (2) Chukchi_Sea<\/td>350261<\/td>214302<\/td>135958<\/td>1065<\/td>349196<\/td><\/tr>
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea<\/td>320409<\/td>307838<\/td>12571<\/td>311<\/td>320098<\/td><\/tr>
 (4) Laptev_Sea<\/td>207220<\/td>169745<\/td>37475<\/td>237446<\/td>-30226<\/td><\/tr>
 (5) Kara_Sea<\/td>339<\/td>39310<\/td>-38971<\/td>15857<\/td>-15518<\/td><\/tr>
 (6) Barents_Sea<\/td>0<\/td>15734<\/td>-15734<\/td>4851<\/td>-4851<\/td><\/tr>
 (7) Greenland_Sea<\/td>163963<\/td>250200<\/td>-86237<\/td>353210<\/td>-189247<\/td><\/tr>
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence<\/td>38141<\/td>57714<\/td>-19573<\/td>51770<\/td>-13629<\/td><\/tr>
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago<\/td>112998<\/td>388756<\/td>-275757<\/td>302221<\/td>-189223<\/td><\/tr>
 (10) Hudson_Bay<\/td>0<\/td>3062<\/td>-3062<\/td>1936<\/td>-1936<\/td><\/tr>
 (11) Central_Arctic<\/td>2968286<\/td>3001441<\/td>-33155<\/td>2723382.15<\/td>244904<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The major deficits are in Beaufort, Greenland sea and Canadian Archipelago. Only Chukchi shows an offsetting surplus.  Overall, the NH ice extent is 567k km2 or 11% below average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier observations showed that Arctic ice extents were low in the 1940s, grew thereafter up to a peak in 1977, before declining.  That decline was gentle until 1996 which started a decade of multi-year ice loss through the Fram Strait.  There was also a major earthquake under the north pole in that period.  In any case, the effects and the decline ceased in 2007, 30 years after the previous peak.  Now we have a plateau in ice extents, which could be the precursor of a growing phase of the quasi-60 year Arctic ice oscillation.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Background <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A commenter previously asked, where do they get their data? The answer is primarily from NIC\u2019s Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). From the documentation, the multiple sources feeding IMS are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Platform(s) AQUA, DMSP, DMSP 5D-3\/F17, GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-13, GOES-9, METEOSAT, MSG, MTSAT-1R, MTSAT-2, NOAA-14, NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-17, NOAA-18, NOAA-N, RADARSAT-2, SUOMI-NPP, TERRA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sensor(s): AMSU-A, ATMS, AVHRR, GOES I-M IMAGER, MODIS, MTSAT 1R Imager, MTSAT 2 Imager, MVIRI, SAR, SEVIRI, SSM\/I, SSMIS, VIIRS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary: IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration \/ National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA\/NESDIS) has an extensive history of monitoring snow and ice coverage.Accurate monitoring of global snow\/ice cover is a key component in the study of climate and global change as well as daily weather forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Polar and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite programs (POES\/GOES) operated by NESDIS provide invaluable visible and infrared spectral data in support of these efforts. Clear-sky imagery from both the POES and the GOES sensors show snow\/ice boundaries very well; however, the visible and infrared techniques may suffer from persistent cloud cover near the snowline, making observations difficult (Ramsay, 1995). The microwave products (DMSP and AMSR-E) are unobstructed by clouds and thus can be used as another observational platform in most regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery also provides all-weather, near daily capacities to discriminate sea and lake ice. With several other derived snow\/ice products of varying accuracy, such as those from NCEP and the NWS NOHRSC, it is highly desirable for analysts to be able to interactively compare and contrast the products so that a more accurate composite map can be produced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS first began generating Northern Hemisphere Weekly Snow and Ice Cover analysis charts derived from the visible satellite imagery in November, 1966. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the analysis (190 km and 7 days, respectively) remained unchanged for the product\u2019s 33-year lifespan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result of increasing customer needs and expectations, it was decided that an efficient, interactive workstation application should be constructed which would enable SAB to produce snow\/ice analyses at a higher resolution and on a daily basis (~25 km \/ 1024 x 1024 grid and once per day) using a consolidated array of new as well as existing satellite and surface imagery products. The Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Cover chart has been produced since February, 1997 by SAB meteorologists on the IMS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another large resolution improvement began in early 2004, when improved technology allowed the SAB to begin creation of a daily ~4 km (6144\u00d76144) grid. At this time, both the ~4 km and ~24 km products are available from NSIDC with a slight delay. Near real-time gridded data is available in ASCII format by request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In March 2008, the product was migrated from SAB to the National Ice Center (NIC) of NESDIS. The production system and methodology was preserved during the migration. Improved access to DMSP, SAR, and modeled data sources is expected as a short-term from the migration, with longer term plans of twice daily production, GRIB2 output format, a Southern Hemisphere analysis, and an expanded suite of integrated snow and ice variable on horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

http:\/\/www.natice.noaa.gov\/ims\/ims_1.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnote<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some people unhappy with the higher amounts of ice extent shown by MASIE continue to claim that Sea Ice Index is the only dataset that can be used. This is false in fact and in logic. Why should anyone accept that the highest quality picture of ice day to day has no shelf life, that one year\u2019s charts can not be compared with another year?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MASIE is rigorous, reliable, serves as calibration for satellite products, and continues the long and honorable tradition of naval ice charting using modern technologies. More on this at my post Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Earlier observations showed that Arctic ice extents were low in the 1940s, grew thereafter up to a peak in 1977, before declining. That decline was gentle until 1996 which started a decade of multi-year ice loss through the Fram Strait. There was also a major earthquake under the north pole in that period. In any case, the effects and the decline ceased in 2007, 30 years after the previous peak. Now we have a plateau in ice extents, which could be the precursor of a growing phase of the quasi-60 year Arctic ice oscillation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":345345,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819671,691830545,691830791,691830790],"class_list":["post-345333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-arctic-ice","tag-september-2024","tag-sii-sea-ice-index","tag-sipn-sea-ice-prediction-network","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change.jpg?fit=3945%2C2219&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1rPT","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":294385,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294385","url_meta":{"origin":345333,"position":0},"title":"The Embarrassing Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Has Lasted 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have been using the year 2007 as the starting point for assessing Arctic sea ice trends for nearly a decade. 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