{"id":344580,"date":"2024-09-25T17:42:14","date_gmt":"2024-09-25T15:42:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344580"},"modified":"2024-09-25T17:43:19","modified_gmt":"2024-09-25T15:43:19","slug":"scientists-climate-forcing-measurement-errors-are-only-150-times-larger-than-for-co2-climate-forcing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344580","title":{"rendered":"Scientists: Climate Forcing Measurement Errors Are \u2018Only\u2019 150 Times Larger Than For CO2 Climate Forcing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When assessing the climate-altering effects of downwelling longwave radiation, the root mean square error associated with calculating this value is 29.7 W\/m\u00b2. For some reason, scientists characterize measurements with an observation error this large as \u201chigh accuracy\u201d.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In an imaginary world where no clouds exist (clear-sky), the surface longwave downward radiation (LWDR) calculated for a CO2 increase of 22 ppm (2000-2010) has been assessed to be 0.2 W\/m\u00b2 (Feldman et al., 2015<\/a><\/strong>) per decade, or 0.02 W\/m\u00b2 per year. This value is acknowledged to contribute just 10 percent of the LWDR trend over this period. The other 90 percent is linked to clouds and water vapor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Feldman et al., 2015<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The root mean square error statistical value is defined in engineering as \u201cthe measure of the differences between values that are predicted by a model and values that are actually observed<\/a><\/strong>.\u201d In other words, it\u2019s the difference between what is expected to occur using simulated model inputs and what, in reality, occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate modeling error in assessing LWDR is quite large. This is due primarily to the inability of the models to accurately assess the all-sky conditions occurring in the real world, where clouds exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists acknowledge clouds are the principal \u201ccontrolling factor\u201d of LWDR trends, and yet their impacts \u201ccannot be directly measured\u201d (Du et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong>). Instead, they must be estimated using surrogate constructs with simulated values. Consequently, the real-world, all-sky atmosphere cannot be assessed with sufficient accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith increasing attention to cloudy-sky LWDR retrieval, cloud-base height or cloud-base temperature is a primary controlling factor of cloudy-sky LWDR but cannot be directly measured by optical sensors and need to be estimated. To address this, some surrogate parameters are used to quantify the cloud contribution.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite these fatal flaws, climate scientists eager to attribute climate forcing to human activity literally characterize measurements with observation error 150 times larger (~30 W\/m\u00b2) than 10 years of CO2 forcing (0.2 W\/m\u00b2) as \u201chigh accuracy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis study generates an all-sky global LWDR product called LessRad LWDR with high accuracy.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAccuracy was evaluated using root-mean-square-error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE) \u2026 an MBE of 5.5 W\/m\u00b2, and a RMSE of 29.7 W\/m\u00b2.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLessRad exhibits RMSE values of 29.7, 21.4, 31.0, 32.0, and 24.2 W\/m\u00b2 over the globe, low latitudes, midlatitudes, the Tibetan Plateau, the Arctic, and the Antarctic, respectively.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proponents of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) claim CO2\u2019s LWDR forcing is the<\/em> factor driving modern climate change. However, if the CO2 forcing contribution to LWDR is 150 times smaller than the error in calculating the surface background LWDR, then there can be no valid attribution assessment for CO2 forcing in LWDR trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Du et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When assessing the climate-altering effects of downwelling longwave radiation, the root mean square error associated with calculating this value is 29.7 W\/m\u00b2. For some reason, scientists characterize measurements with an observation error this large as \u201chigh accuracy\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821853,691827130,691822729,691830713],"class_list":["post-344580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-anthropogenic-global-warming-agw","tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","tag-climate-modeling","tag-lwdr-trends","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1rDK","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":262437,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262437","url_meta":{"origin":344580,"position":0},"title":"limate \u2026\u00a0Continue readingNew Study Shows We Are Now \ud835\udc4a\ud835\udc5c\ud835\udc5f\ud835\udc60\ud835\udc52 At Modeling Cloud Climate Effects Than We Were In 1984","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have determined the error in calculating effects of shortwave cloud forcing on climate spans 82-132 W\/m\u00b2 since the mid-1990s. Total clear-sky climate forcing linked to CO2 since 1750 is 1.8 W\/m\u00b2. Therefore, there is no way to accurately determine anthropogenic CO2\u2019s capacity to influence climate.","rel":"","context":"In \"Cloud Climate Effects\"","block_context":{"text":"Cloud Climate Effects","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cloud-climate-effects"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0thumb-1920-109771.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0thumb-1920-109771.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0thumb-1920-109771.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0thumb-1920-109771.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0thumb-1920-109771.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420555,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420555","url_meta":{"origin":344580,"position":1},"title":"Modeling Error in Estimating How Clouds Affect Climate Is 8700% Larger Than Alleged CO2 Forcing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/08\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"CO2\u2019s role in climate change is too small to detect in error-ridden attribution measurements.","rel":"","context":"In \"air and sea surface temperature\"","block_context":{"text":"air and sea surface temperature","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=air-and-sea-surface-temperature"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414780,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414780","url_meta":{"origin":344580,"position":2},"title":"A World Without Air","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/26\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Here\u2019s a thought experiment. 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