{"id":344461,"date":"2024-09-25T07:15:28","date_gmt":"2024-09-25T05:15:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344461"},"modified":"2024-09-25T07:15:31","modified_gmt":"2024-09-25T05:15:31","slug":"column-looming-european-energy-crisis-a-lesson-in-averages-that-wont-soon-be-forgotten-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344461","title":{"rendered":"Column: Looming European energy crisis: A lesson in averages that won\u2019t soon be forgotten"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The BOE Report<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0By Terry Etam<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not sure about you, but the last thing I want to talk about is elections. When I think of how much of my precious time has been wasted hearing about politics in the last year, I want to puke. No more from pollsters, talking heads, or statisticians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, maybe I\u2019d like to talk about statisticians, as in the old joke about the one that drowned because he forded a river that was only three feet deep, on average. See, isn\u2019t that better than politics already? However, as funny as a drowned statistician may be, there is a serious side to the problem with relying on averages. You really can die, for starters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before getting back to death and\/or politics again (redundancy, I know), let\u2019s think about the use of averages. A car may be designed for the average \u2013 one doesn\u2019t find the tallest person on earth and design an interior to accommodate them. The exceptions get to either bang their shins or dangle their feet, but that\u2019s the way it has to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other areas, it can\u2019t work that way. Do you insulate your house for average conditions? No, of course not. Do you install an air conditioner for average conditions? Same. And on it goes. When the risk of harm goes up, we design for the extremes, not the averages. Or we should.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A whole world of trouble will come your way if your plans are built on averages but you cannot live with the extremes. Or even with substantial variations. Europe, and other progressive energy parts of the world, are finding this out the hard way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the race to decarbonize the energy system, wind and solar have taken a dominant lead. Nuclear is widely despised. Hydrogen has potential, but is a long way out, as a major player. On the assumption that Hydrocarbons Must Go At Any Cost, wind and solar are the winners. Bring on the trillions. Throw up wind turbines everywhere. Blanket the countryside in solar panels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The media loves the wattage count as fodder for headlines; big numbers dazzle people. \u201cThe United States is on pace to install record amounts of wind and solar this year, underscoring America\u2019s capacity to build renewables at a level once considered impossible\u2026The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects<\/a> the U.S. will install 37 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity this year, obliterating the previous record of almost 17 GW in 2016,\u201d bleated<\/a> the ironically named Scientific American website. Wow, gigawatts. No idea what those are but they sound huge. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the problem with all that capacity? Well, how good is it? Let\u2019s see\u2026at a 33 per cent capacity factor (used by the US government as apparently reasonable), that 37 GW is just over 12 GW of power contributed to the grid, on average. The assumption seems to be then that 12 GW of dirty old hydrocarbons have been rendered obsolete, and, for the energy rube, the number is an even more righteous 37 GW, because, you know, some days it is really windy all over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, what happens when that load factor is\u2026zero? Because it happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current poster child for the issue is Great Britain. The UK has 24 GW of wind power installed. The media loves to talk about total renewable GW installed as proof of progress, and the blindingly rapid pace of the energy transition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However over the past few weeks wind dropped almost to zero, and output from that 24 GW of installed capacity fell to about 1 or 2 GW. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ordinarily, that would be no problem \u2013 just fire up the gas fired power plants, or import power from elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what happens when that isn\u2019t available? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

More pertinently, what happens when the likelihood of near-zero output happens to coincide with the times when that power is needed most \u2013 in heat waves, or cold spells? That brings us to the current grave situation facing Europe as it heads towards winter. Gas storage is supposed to be filling rapidly at this time of year, but it\u2019s not, for a number of reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Natural gas isn\u2019t supposed to be on anyone\u2019s roadmap, though. The culturally hip website Wired talked (in early September<\/a>) about the imperative to limit global warming: \u201cTo make the switch we need to switch to renewable energy, such as solar, wind and geothermal, right now. We\u2019re making good progress on this; solar and wind energy are now cheaper than fossil fuels, and renewable energy was responsible for around a third of global electricity production<\/a> in 2020.\u201d The first glimmer into the damage of relying on averages starts to show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few weeks later<\/a>, Wired shows that a few light bulbs may be going on: \u201cThere\u2019s a tendency for the government to say the power sector is done, the sector has been decarbonised, the renewables transition is going at pace and all of that good stuff,\u201d the article quotes the head of Energy UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article\u2019s author, after musing that seven UK energy supply firms have gone out of business so far this year (a result of having to pay more to generate\/acquire power than their locked in sales values), makes one of those profound British understatements of the my-arms-are-cut-off-and-I-appear-to-be-in-a-spot-of-trouble-old-chap variety: \u201cAnd we\u2019re reliant on gas more generally than we thought.\u201d No, foul dullard, we are more reliant than you<\/em> thought. Anyone in the business of providing energy could have told you that, but the simpleton army wouldn\u2019t listen. And now you pay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They could easily have asked experts, like providers of hydrocarbons. But those people are today\u2019s lepers. No one is interested in their opinion for fear of the appearance of collaboration. (Trudeau set up a \u201cNet Zero Advisory Body\u201d with the mandate to identify net-zero pathways; NZAB has posted<\/a> the records of meetings to date (24); only once \u2013 once \u2013 has \u2018oil and gas\u2019 been mentioned in the records, and the context is dumbfounding: \u201cMembers received a foundational briefing on the oil & gas sector from federal officials.\u201d FROM FEDERAL OFFICIALS. Meanwhile, the NZAB also heard a presentation directly from the David Suzuki Foundation. This should end well.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s drive this energy conundrum home a little better for all these people who are, as Principal Skinner put it on the Simpsons, \u201cfurrowing their brows in a vain attempt to comprehend the situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world has been sold a faulty bill of goods, based on a pathetically simplistic vision of how renewable energy works. A US government website highlights the problem with this example: \u201cThe mean turbine capacity in the U.S. Wind Turbine Database is 1.67 megawatts (MW), At a 33% capacity factor, that average turbine would generate over 402,000 kWh per month \u2013 enough for over 460 average U.S. homes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus armed, bureaucrats and morons head straight to the promised land by multiplying the number of wind turbines by 460 and shocking-and-awing themselves with the results. Holy crap, we don\u2019t need natural gas anymore (as they tell me in exactly those words).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So they all start dismantling the natural gas system \u2013 not directly by ripping up pipelines, but indirectly by blocking new ones, by championing \u2018fossil-fuel divestment campaigns\u2019, by taking energy policy advice from Swedish teenagers \u2013 and then stand there shivering in dim-witted stupor when the wind stops blowing, and the world\u2019s energy producers are not in any position to bring forth more natural gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not just Britain that is squirming. A Bloomberg article (which I cannot link to as I will never willingly send Bloomberg a cent) notes the following unsettling news: \u201cChina is staring down another winter of power shortages that threaten to upend its economic recovery as a global energy supply crunch sends the price of fuels skyrocketing. The world\u2019s second biggest economy is at risk of not having enough coal and natural gas \u2013 used to heat households and power factories \u2013 despite efforts over the past year to stockpile fuel as rivals in North Asia and Europe compete for a finite supply.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is profoundly important to recognize that these comments come from Bloomberg \u2013 a \u2018news\u2019 institution that is going far, far out of its way to demonize, deprecate, and decapitate the hydrocarbon industry. That hydrocarbon industry, by the way, is making major inroads in ways these demonizers deem impossible \u2013 developing carbon capture\/storage, reducing methane emissions, working on hydrogen solutions, and even succeeding at First Nations inclusion such as demonstrated by groups like Project Reconciliation (trying to buy TransMountain) and the recent purchase<\/a> of an oil sands pipeline by 8 local First Nations and Suncor<\/a>. That same hydrocarbon industry is working overdrive to solve emissions problems and engage First Nations.29dk2902lhttps:\/\/boereport.com\/29dk2902l.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lot of the global energy-transition-now madness stems from such a basic inability to grasp certain fundamentals, which are not at all hard to understand if one wants to, but are impossible for those who require an energy villain to add righteousness to their campaign. You can install all the wind and solar you want, but if their output can go to zero, and more importantly if their output is more likely to go to zero when most needed (extreme heat (low wind, inefficient solar panels) or extreme cold (low wind, obvious solar shortcomings)), then you don\u2019t have an energy system at all. And don\u2019t put up your hand to say batteries are coming someday soon. The math on that as a NG replacement is even more laughable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeah, yeah, I can hear it already, how terrible, coming down so hard on a bunch of hapless bandwagon-jumping commentators. Yeah, about that. That bandwagon is cutting off the world\u2019s fuel supply at its knees. There will be consequences. Serious ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hundreds of millions of people without adequate heating fuel in the dead of winter is not particularly funny. If a cold winter strikes, all the yappiest energy-transition-now dogs will fade into the woodwork, distancing themselves from the disinformation they\u2019ve propagated and the disaster they\u2019ve engineered. People in position of responsibility will have no choice but to speak out loud the words they\u2019ve dared not utter for a decade: you need hydrocarbons, today, tomorrow, and for a very long time yet. So start acting like it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buy it while it\u2019s still legal! Before the book burnin\u2019 starts\u2026pick up \u201cThe End of Fossil Fuel Insanity\u201d at <\/em>Amazon.ca<\/a>, <\/em>Indigo.ca<\/a>, or <\/em>Amazon.com<\/a>. Thanks for the support.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here,<\/a> or email Terry here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A whole world of trouble will come your way if your plans are built on averages but you cannot live with the extremes. Or even with substantial variations. Europe, and other progressive energy parts of the world, are finding this out the hard way.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819248,691819630,691818583,691818154,691819094],"class_list":["post-344461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-decarbonize","tag-energy-crisis","tag-europe","tag-net-zero","tag-renewable-green-energy","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1rBP","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":261802,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=261802","url_meta":{"origin":344461,"position":0},"title":"Column: Looming European energy crisis: A lesson in averages that won\u2019t soon be forgotten","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019m not sure about you, but the last thing I want to talk about is elections. 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