{"id":344083,"date":"2024-09-21T16:36:48","date_gmt":"2024-09-21T14:36:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344083"},"modified":"2024-09-21T16:38:29","modified_gmt":"2024-09-21T14:38:29","slug":"the-math-does-not-support-new-yorks-climate-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344083","title":{"rendered":"The Math Does Not Support New York\u2019s Climate Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger Caiazza<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I frequently collaborate with Richard Ellenbogen regarding issues related to the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act<\/a> (Climate Act).  This post describes his recent blog article The Math Does Not Support New York\u2019s Climate Plan<\/a> published at the Empire Center for Public Policy<\/a>.  He explains why the numbers show that the Climate Act implementation plan is doomed to failure based on his experience adopting renewable and lower-emission combustion technologies in his home and business.  This post condenses his findings and publicizes his work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overview and Background<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Climate Act established a New York \u201cNet Zero\u201d target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by \u201czero-emissions\u201d resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council<\/a> (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to \u201cachieve the State\u2019s bold clean energy and climate agenda.\u201d The Integration Analysis<\/a> prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan<\/a> outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan<\/a> was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ellenbogen introduces the problem:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I have been analyzing the numbers coming out of Albany regarding the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA<\/a>), New York\u2019s plan to drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels, for over five years now.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am not anti-renewable and I am not a climate denier. What I am is an engineer that lives by numbers. The numbers underpinning the CLCPA\u2014namely the belief that New York can replace most of its natural gas-fired electricity generation with renewables in the next six or even nine years\u2014are a fantasy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n