{"id":343830,"date":"2024-09-20T17:20:15","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T15:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=343830"},"modified":"2024-09-20T17:20:18","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T15:20:18","slug":"exxon-knew-more-rebuttal-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=343830","title":{"rendered":"\u201cExxon Knew\u201d: More Rebuttal (again)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Randal Utech<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe contrived sense of accomplishment in history matching is spurious correlation for an infinitesimally small period of time. Using Exxon\u2019s internal analysis of CO2 climate forcing is little more than a propaganda tool.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cExxon Knew\u201d is a political-lawyer campaign focusing on certain internal company documents to make a case that the oil major knew that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were a future threat to human betterment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smoking gun? Hardly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A half century later, the IPCC is still trying to update and figure out physical climate science. Exxon did not do a study on the benefits of CO2 or the offset of sulfur dioxide emissions. The concern way back then was Global Cooling, Peak Oil, and Peak Gas. And as the company knew, fossil fuels had no viable substitute, as in wind and solar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This historical correction has been documented in many posts here at MasterResource, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Big Oil, Exxon Not Guilty as Charged: Six-part Rebuttal<\/a> (September 22, 2022)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018ExxonKnew\u2019: More Correction<\/a> (September 18, 2023)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shell Knew? No<\/a> (July 19, 2023)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Alarmist as ExxonMobil Whistleblower<\/a> (March 27, 2024)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Search of the \u201cGreenhouse Signal\u201d in the 1990s<\/a> (June 21, 2023)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unsettled Science, IPCC-style<\/a> (February 18, 2020)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It became my turn when I encountered this argument by Mark Burger on social media, He stated<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

As opposed to fossil fuel industries war on hiding their impacts for decades? One example: \u201cExxon scientists predicted global warming with \u2018shocking skill and accuracy,\u2019 Harvard researchers say<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

My Rebuttal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To which I respond (expanded from my reply<\/a> on social media):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

To say that Exxon knew the truth back in the early 80s is a laughable fallacy. Effectively they built a primitive model that is characteristically similar to the erroneous modern climate models of today.
Fundamentally their work is based on the poorly understood climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from radiative convective models and GCM models. To their credit, they actually acknowledged the high degree of uncertainty in these estimations. Today, even Hausfather (2022 vs 2019) is beginning to understand the climate sensitivity (ECS) is too high. CMIP6 is running still even hotter than CMIP5 and using ECS of 3 to 5\u00b0 C rather than ~ 1.2\u00b0 C as highlighted in Nick Lewis\u2019s 2022 study<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CMIP6 should have been better because it incorporated solar particle forcing (Matthes et. al.<\/a>) and as they incorporate more elements of natural forcing (an active area of research as we still do not have a predictive theory for climate), the effect is highlighting more underlying problems with the models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Exxon investigators fell into the same trap that climate modelers of today where they build the models to history match temperatures and then wow, because they can create a model that appears to history match temperatures, they assume it is telling them something. Truth? Anyone can create a model to do this, but it would never mean the model is correct. While the models today are much more complex, they are based on a complex set of non-linear equations, and the understanding of the various sources of nonlineararity is poor. This opens up wide degrees of uncertainty yet wide opportunity for tuning. Furthermore, natural forcing is undercharacterized and deemed inconsequential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The contrived sense of accomplishment in history matching is spurious correlation for an infinitesimally small period of time. Using Exxon\u2019s internal analysis of CO2 climate forcing is little more than a propaganda tool. Current climate models, much more sophisticated, face the same problem of unknown, false causality.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Randall Utech, former Advisor Geoscientist at Schlumberger, has researched climate science for nearly 30 years with emphasis on geology, paleoclimate, and the glacial cycles. An interview with him by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists<\/a> can be found here<\/a>. Utech is author of On the Benefits of CO2<\/a> (April 11, 2023)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cExxon Knew\u201d is a political-lawyer campaign focusing on certain internal company documents to make a case that the oil major knew that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were a future threat to human betterment.<\/p>\n

Smoking gun? Hardly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":343833,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823019,691827130,691819743,691830658],"class_list":{"0":"post-343830","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-exxon-knew","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-co2-climate-forcing","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0exxon-knew-about-climate-change4-1625522237176.webp?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1rrE","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":344501,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344501","url_meta":{"origin":343830,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Media and Climate Plaintiffs, Exxon Can\u2019t Have Known What Is Still Being Studied and Debated","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/25\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Editor\u2019s Note: Scripps News and MSN reported on Puerto Rico\u2019s recent filing of a lawsuit against big oil companies, \u201cclaiming their products caused climate damage \u2026 [and that] Exxon Mobil, BP, Chevron, Shell and other big oil companies knew their products would pollute the island and negatively impact the climate,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Big Oil\"","block_context":{"text":"Big Oil","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=big-oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279322,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279322","url_meta":{"origin":343830,"position":1},"title":"\u2018ExxonKnew\u2019: More Correction","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A sober look at the \u201cExxonKnew\u201d campaign reveals an anti-fossil-fuel agenda inspiring a myopic view of the company\u2019s old investigations into carbon dioxide (CO2).","rel":"","context":"In \"anti-fossil-fuel agenda\"","block_context":{"text":"anti-fossil-fuel agenda","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anti-fossil-fuel-agenda"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-552.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-552.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-552.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-552.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-552.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":239385,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=239385","url_meta":{"origin":343830,"position":2},"title":"New Harvard Study Proves Exxon Scientists Far Superior at Predicting Climate than the IPCC or James Hansen","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019m sure Russell Cook will have lots to say about this study. I can\u2019t wait.\u00a0I\u2019m sure their blatant attempt at sophistry was not meant to reach the conclusion in my title. Emphasis mine below.~cr","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00ffa71966261629.5d3a654be108c.jpg?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00ffa71966261629.5d3a654be108c.jpg?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00ffa71966261629.5d3a654be108c.jpg?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00ffa71966261629.5d3a654be108c.jpg?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00ffa71966261629.5d3a654be108c.jpg?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":220631,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=220631","url_meta":{"origin":343830,"position":3},"title":"Big Oil, Exxon Not Guilty as Charged (a rebuttal in six parts)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/25\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Imagine if the media was reversed on the climate\/energy issue, supporting and promoting a free-market, classical-liberal position. They could look at my boxes of files from the Enron days (1990s) and produce an expos\u00e9,\u00a0Enron Knew","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1220.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1220.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1220.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1220.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":258007,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258007","url_meta":{"origin":343830,"position":4},"title":"What I Learned about What Exxon Knew","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Accusatory polemics disguised as climate science news is a commonplace these days. Perhaps you, dear reader, have written an email to some science reporter expressing dismay at their unthinking IPCC bias, or offered some correction to purported science. I have done, too, and many times. Typically, there is no reply.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0bigstock-an-elephant-calm-in-a-restaura-106526717.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0bigstock-an-elephant-calm-in-a-restaura-106526717.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0bigstock-an-elephant-calm-in-a-restaura-106526717.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0bigstock-an-elephant-calm-in-a-restaura-106526717.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0bigstock-an-elephant-calm-in-a-restaura-106526717.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":331570,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=331570","url_meta":{"origin":343830,"position":5},"title":"The Claim \u2018Exxon Knew\u2019 Their Products Induced \u2018Catastrophic Climate Impacts\u2019 In The 1970s Is Bunk","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In the 1970s and 1980s ExxonMobil did not know that their reports would be so wrongly misinterpreted in the 2010s.","rel":"","context":"In \"1977 Report\"","block_context":{"text":"1977 Report","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1977-report"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ExxonMobil-logo.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ExxonMobil-logo.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ExxonMobil-logo.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ExxonMobil-logo.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0ExxonMobil-logo.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/343830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=343830"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/343830\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":343835,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/343830\/revisions\/343835"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/343833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=343830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=343830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=343830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}