{"id":343142,"date":"2024-09-15T15:30:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-15T13:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=343142"},"modified":"2024-09-15T15:30:05","modified_gmt":"2024-09-15T13:30:05","slug":"churchill-seemingly-unworried-about-polar-bears-fails-to-post-problem-bear-reports-on-social-media","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=343142","title":{"rendered":"Churchill seemingly unworried about polar bears, fails to post problem bear reports on social media"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We know transparency\u2019s gone out the window for many public officials, but still: Since early August, I\u2019ve been checking daily for Problem Polar Bear Reports issued by the Churchill Polar Bear Alert Program managed by\u00a0Manitoba Conservation<\/a>. This morning (12 September), five reports were posted at once on the Town of Churchill website<\/a>, dating back to first of the season for the week of August 5-11, see image below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s apparent that the intent of these reports is in part public safety: to raise awareness of the potential threat of wandering polar bears around the town of Churchill because of the language that appears on virtually every report: \u201cstay vigilant\u201d, \u201cbe bear smart,\u201d \u201cbe bear aware,\u201d etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the X account for Town of Churchill seems to have been abandoned (last post 19 April 2024), which suggests the town is confident no residents or tourists would benefit from Alerts on X that polar bears are ashore:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The town\u2019s Facebook account<\/a> seems to be their only method of public communication yet even there, there have been no Polar Bear Alert reports posted this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oddly, even though it is now apparent from the just-released reports that one bear got so close to town that it had to captured and put in the \u2018polar bear jail\u2019 the week of 5-11 August \u2014 for the public\u2019s safety \u2014 the only safety announcement the town issued that week was a \u2018heat warning\u2019 on 12 August:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I guess we are to assume that whoever is running this account \u2013 or the town council, or the mayor \u2013 believes that a day or two of hot weather (which Churchill gets regularly most years) is more dangerous to public safety than a massive predator wandering around town.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I can only conclude that keeping residents and tourists in the dark about potential threats from local polar bears is one way that Churchill is now adapting to climate change<\/a> (from CBC News, 10 September 2024):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bears Onshore and Effective Sea Ice Breakup dates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is apparent from the wording of the Churchill reports that even by the last week of August this year, all bears were not yet off the ice, since they say only that \u201cmost<\/strong> bears\u201d were on shore the week of 26 August to 1 September (see next section).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That suggests the last bears came ashore this year at least a week later<\/a><\/em> than they did in 2020<\/a> (at 21 August), which at the time polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher presented as an anomaly<\/a> (see tweet below). Compare to the situation last year here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The last report I\u2019ve seen from Derocher (via X) for 2024 on the status of his teams\u2019 tagged females is that many of them (11\/29 or 38%) were still on the ice as of\u00a08 August\u00a0<\/a>(posted 11 Aug):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Derocher referring to this an \u201camazing\u201d year that\u2019s \u201csimilar\u201d to the 1980s probably doesn\u2019t tell the half of it, since he hasn\u2019t posted any maps since then (as of noon, 12 September).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This effectively keeps secret the date when the last of these females bears actually came ashore, which is in any case a biased microcosm of the entire subpopulation. In other words, we can expect that if 40% of tagged female were still on bits of remnant ice at 8 August, there will have been many more bears, especially males, out there as well \u2013 which of course he never mentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also never mentions that satellites under-report the amount of ice at this time of year by as much as 20% because of the effects of melt-water sitting on ice, but we\u2019ve come to expect that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oddly, a recent study tried to explain the importance to survival of the recent phenomenon (since about 2015 or so) of bears staying out on melting bits of remnant ice<\/a> rather than heading immediately to shore when the ice coverage over Western Hudson Bay drops below 50%. They suggested this behaviour was largely confined to male bears because they had to make up for feeding missed during the breeding season (McGeachy et al. 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Females, alternatively, appear to respond to break-up in WH by coming onshore approximately 3 weeks after the mean ice concentration in WH reached 50%, \u2026 However, suitable habitat was still present elsewhere in the Bay and appeared to be used by a portion of WH prime age males.<\/em> [McGeachy et al. 2024: 494, where \u201cprime age males\u201d are aged 5-19 years.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, these authors never mention the data reported by Derocher every year showing fairly significant numbers of tagged females lingering on tiny chunks of ice well into August, even though Derocher is a co-author. Funny, that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Problem Bear Reports 2024, Weeks 1-5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Week 1, 5-11 August<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Week 2, 12-18 August<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Week 3, 19-25 August<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Week 4, 26 August-September 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Week 5, 2-8 September<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

McGeachy, D., Lunn, N.J., Richards, E.S. and Derocher, A.E. (2024). Sea ice influence on male polar bear survival in Hudson Bay. Arctic Science<\/em> 10, 483-498. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1139\/as-2023-004<\/a> Open access.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We know transparency\u2019s gone out the window for many public officials, but still: Since early August, I\u2019ve been checking daily for Problem Polar Bear Reports issued by the Churchill Polar Bear Alert Program managed by Manitoba Conservation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":343160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691825190,691818251,691818895],"class_list":["post-343142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-churchill-polar-bears","tag-polar-bears","tag-sea-ice","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0thumb-CHURCHPO-polar-bear-with-two-cubs-standing-snow-churchill-manitoba-canada-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1rgy","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":274040,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274040","url_meta":{"origin":343142,"position":0},"title":"Conservation officers misleading the public about polar bear problems in Churchill","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Canadian government-funded media outlet CBC ran a\u00a0story this morning\u00a0about problem polar bears in the town of Churchill, Manitoba, the self-described \u201cPolar Bear Capital of the World\u201d that contains some very misleading statements from Manitoba Conservation officers.","rel":"","context":"In \"Churchill\"","block_context":{"text":"Churchill","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=churchill"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00a26993240506963c58299fa719f917a8.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00a26993240506963c58299fa719f917a8.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00a26993240506963c58299fa719f917a8.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00a26993240506963c58299fa719f917a8.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00a26993240506963c58299fa719f917a8.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":285442,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285442","url_meta":{"origin":343142,"position":1},"title":"Churchill so far has few problems with polar bears despite predictions of a record bad year","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A polar bear near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada Churchill is one of the few human settlements where polar bears can be observed in the wild. Frequently called \u201cLords of the Arctic\u201d, these animals are huge. Male polar bears can grow to more than 600 kg (1,320 lbs) and stand 3.05 metres\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Churchill\"","block_context":{"text":"Churchill","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=churchill"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0308738.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0308738.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0308738.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0308738.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0308738.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290645,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290645","url_meta":{"origin":343142,"position":2},"title":"Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn\u2019t their worst summer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For months, the media has been bleating about the poor polar bears of Churchill suffering from lack of sea ice blamed on human-caused climate change during the so-called\u00a0\u2018hottest year\u2019 on record: in\u00a0April,\u00a0July,\u00a0August,\u00a0November, and\u00a0December.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288203,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288203","url_meta":{"origin":343142,"position":3},"title":"Polar bear sea ice habitat update at 15 November & problem bears in Western Hudson Bay","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/20\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From polarbearscience Abundant polar bear habitat this fall across the Arctic so far, with only Hudson Bay sea ice formation a bit behind schedule. However, Churchill has not seen the\u00a0anticipated spike\u00a0in\u00a0problem bear\u00a0reports, given the vocal pronouncement by\u00a0polar bear specialists\u00a0that it should be experiencing more and more problems with bears when\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Churchill\"","block_context":{"text":"Churchill","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=churchill"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/R.jpg?fit=1200%2C873&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":291147,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291147","url_meta":{"origin":343142,"position":4},"title":"Churchill end-of-season problem polar bear reports finally published","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Today\u00a0the Town of Churchill finally published the final problem bear reports of the season, which presents an opportunity to do a quick comparison to recent years.","rel":"","context":"In \"polar bears\"","block_context":{"text":"polar bears","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=polar-bears"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0DSC_0390.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0DSC_0390.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0DSC_0390.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0DSC_0390.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0DSC_0390.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416591,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416591","url_meta":{"origin":343142,"position":5},"title":"Polar bears and Arctic Sea ice\u00a0status","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Positive news on the Arctic front as far as polar bears are concerned so far this year, with no reports of dead or dying bears, or of horrific attacks on humans that I\u2019ve heard about. Not much to talk about but here\u2019s what I\u2019ve found.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIG-2023-10-23T132037.775.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIG-2023-10-23T132037.775.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIG-2023-10-23T132037.775.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIG-2023-10-23T132037.775.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/343142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=343142"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/343142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":343161,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/343142\/revisions\/343161"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/343160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=343142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=343142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=343142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}