{"id":342792,"date":"2024-09-12T15:43:46","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T13:43:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342792"},"modified":"2024-09-12T15:43:49","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T13:43:49","slug":"tropical-storm-francine-arrives-just-in-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342792","title":{"rendered":"Tropical Storm Francine Arrives \u2013 Just in Time"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brief News Note by Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just in time to beat the \u201churricane season peak  deadline\u201d, NOAA\u2019s National Hurricane Center declared the Potential Tropical Storm Six <\/em>to be Tropical Storm Francine<\/em><\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Location: 23.0\u00b0N 94.9\u00b0W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving: NNW at 5 mph<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Min pressure: 1002 mb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Max sustained: 50 mph<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From the Discussion section: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTropical Storm Francine Discussion Number   4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this<\/p>\n\n\n\n

morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70<\/p>\n\n\n\n

to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near<\/p>\n\n\n\n

the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough<\/p>\n\n\n\n

evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

45 kt this advisory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently<\/p>\n\n\n\n

formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at    340\/4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then<\/p>\n\n\n\n

north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered<\/p>\n\n\n\n

over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its<\/p>\n\n\n\n

northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little<\/p>\n\n\n\n

eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again<\/p>\n\n\n\n

nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference<\/p>\n\n\n\n

between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent<\/p>\n\n\n\n

amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field<\/p>\n\n\n\n

per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after<\/p>\n\n\n\n

an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone\u2019s<\/p>\n\n\n\n

vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant<\/p>\n\n\n\n

intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface<\/p>\n\n\n\n

temperatures.  The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are<\/p>\n\n\n\n

pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between   24-48<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in<\/p>\n\n\n\n

48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After<\/p>\n\n\n\n

that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases<\/p>\n\n\n\n

from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it<\/p>\n\n\n\n

approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system<\/p>\n\n\n\n

is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity<\/p>\n\n\n\n

forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

but is a bit under the HAFS-A\/B and COAMPS-TC models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for<\/p>\n\n\n\n

the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mississippi\/Alabama Border.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, for the season to date we now have this:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared to the historical record, the 2024 Hurricane season is running at a little less than 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Two-Day and Seven-Day forecasts<\/a> show a couple of things in the pipeline \u2013 which may develop into tropical storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s the news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Compared to the historical record, the 2024 Hurricane season is running at a little less than 50%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":342799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818104,691830262,691830566],"class_list":["post-342792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-hurricanes","tag-noaas-national-hurricane-center","tag-tropical-storm-francine","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0cnn-digital-tracker-hurricane-satellite-visible-homepage-francine-2p-090924.png?fit=1480%2C833&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1raU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":342792,"position":0},"title":"GOOD 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