{"id":342792,"date":"2024-09-12T15:43:46","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T13:43:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342792"},"modified":"2024-09-12T15:43:49","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T13:43:49","slug":"tropical-storm-francine-arrives-just-in-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342792","title":{"rendered":"Tropical Storm Francine Arrives \u2013 Just in Time"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brief News Note by Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just in time to beat the \u201churricane season peak  deadline\u201d, NOAA\u2019s National Hurricane Center declared the Potential Tropical Storm Six <\/em>to be Tropical Storm Francine<\/em><\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Location: 23.0\u00b0N 94.9\u00b0W<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving: NNW at 5 mph<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Min pressure: 1002 mb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Max sustained: 50 mph<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From the Discussion section: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTropical Storm Francine Discussion Number   4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this<\/p>\n\n\n\n

morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70<\/p>\n\n\n\n

to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near<\/p>\n\n\n\n

the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough<\/p>\n\n\n\n

evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

45 kt this advisory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently<\/p>\n\n\n\n

formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at    340\/4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then<\/p>\n\n\n\n

north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered<\/p>\n\n\n\n

over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its<\/p>\n\n\n\n

northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little<\/p>\n\n\n\n

eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again<\/p>\n\n\n\n

nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference<\/p>\n\n\n\n

between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent<\/p>\n\n\n\n

amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field<\/p>\n\n\n\n

per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after<\/p>\n\n\n\n

an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone\u2019s<\/p>\n\n\n\n

vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant<\/p>\n\n\n\n

intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface<\/p>\n\n\n\n

temperatures.  The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are<\/p>\n\n\n\n

pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between   24-48<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in<\/p>\n\n\n\n

48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After<\/p>\n\n\n\n

that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases<\/p>\n\n\n\n

from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it<\/p>\n\n\n\n

approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system<\/p>\n\n\n\n

is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity<\/p>\n\n\n\n

forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

but is a bit under the HAFS-A\/B and COAMPS-TC models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for<\/p>\n\n\n\n

the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mississippi\/Alabama Border.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, for the season to date we now have this:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared to the historical record, the 2024 Hurricane season is running at a little less than 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Two-Day and Seven-Day forecasts<\/a> show a couple of things in the pipeline \u2013 which may develop into tropical storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s the news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Compared to the historical record, the 2024 Hurricane season is running at a little less than 50%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":342799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818104,691830262,691830566],"class_list":{"0":"post-342792","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-hurricanes","9":"tag-noaas-national-hurricane-center","10":"tag-tropical-storm-francine","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0cnn-digital-tracker-hurricane-satellite-visible-homepage-francine-2p-090924.png?fit=1480%2C833&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1raU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":259473,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","url_meta":{"origin":342792,"position":0},"title":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210844,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210844","url_meta":{"origin":342792,"position":1},"title":"NOAA\u2019s 2022 Hurricane Outlook Is Wrong; So Far, \u2018Cooler than Normal\u2019 Sea Surface Temperatures Have Suppressed Hurricane Formation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/29\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In early June, stories in corporate media outlets, such as\u00a0U.S. News & World Report\u00a0(USNWR),\u00a0CBS News,\u00a0Forbes, and the\u00a0Washington Post, carried headlines touting predictions made by \u201cexperts,\u201d at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who issued their annual\u00a0Hurricane Season Forecast\u00a0for 2022 in late May. The mainstream media alarmingly proclaimed the forecast was\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0NOAA-hurricane-season.png?fit=1200%2C726&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0NOAA-hurricane-season.png?fit=1200%2C726&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0NOAA-hurricane-season.png?fit=1200%2C726&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0NOAA-hurricane-season.png?fit=1200%2C726&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0NOAA-hurricane-season.png?fit=1200%2C726&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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