{"id":342670,"date":"2024-09-11T17:24:57","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T15:24:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342670"},"modified":"2024-09-11T17:24:59","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T15:24:59","slug":"satellite-observations-confirm-2000-22-warming-has-been-due-to-an-increasing-solar-radiation-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342670","title":{"rendered":"Satellite Observations Confirm 2000-\u201922 Warming Has Been Due To An Increasing Solar Radiation Trend"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEarth\u2019s energy imbalance has doubled from 0.5 \u00b1 0.2 W\/m\u00b2 during the first 10 years of this century to 1.0 \u00b1 0.2 W\/m\u00b2 during the past decade. The increase is the result of a 0.9 \u00b1 0.3 W\/m\u00b2 increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR)\u2026\u201d\u00a0 \u2212\u00a0Loeb et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has been declining since 2000. Declining cloud cover has meant less shortwave radiation has been reflected to space, resulting in an increase in the solar radiation absorbed by the Earth\u2019s surface (ocean).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance (the net difference between incoming and outgoing energy) has been increasingly positive since 2000, rising from an average +0.5 W\/m\u00b2 from 2000 to 2010 to +1 W\/m\u00b2 in the last decade. This positive trend is the consequence of the +0.9 W\/m\u00b2 increasing trend in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) due to this observed decline in cloud cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, the 2000-2022 increase in sea surface temperatures (SST) can be explained by increases in shortwave (SW) forcing, and not an enhanced greenhouse effect due to rising greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Loeb et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The reason we can say greenhouse gases cannot explain modern warming is because the positive shortwave (SW) forcing driving SST increases has been partially offset \u2013 reduced \u2013 by a declining<\/em> greenhouse effect or longwave (LW) forcing (-0.4 W\/m\u00b2) over this period. This is manifested as an increasing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) trend (more energy lost to space) during the first 23 years of the 21st<\/sup> century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The LW forcing trend is partially impacted by trace greenhouse gases like CO2 and CH4, as well as by water vapor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026part of the -OLR trend is associated with reduced emission resulting from increases in water vapor and WMGG [well mixed greenhouse gases] above the cloud top\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the predominant factor affecting OLR is the decadal-scale trend in cloud cover, referred to as the cloud radiative effect (CRE). While declining cloud cover results in increasing absorbed solar radiation (see the red positive SW bar on the CRE chart), it simultaneously enhances, rather than reduces, the outgoing longwave trend (as shown in the blue negative LW bar in the CRE chart).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the greenhouse effect impact, manifested as the trend in OLR, has been heading in the opposite direction of what it should have been if anthropogenic CO2 emissions were indeed driving global warming. CO2 emissions are not impactful enough to reverse the overall sign of longwave radiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Cess and Udelhofen (2003<\/a><\/strong>), a negative greenhouse effect influence \u2013 enhancing cooling \u2013 was also observed over the 1985-1999 period. Thus, extending the 2000-2022 trend another 15 years, the total greenhouse effect forcing may have actually been cooling the Earth for more than 35 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Cess and Udelhofen, 2003<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Models say an enhanced greenhouse effect due to increasing trends in well-mixed greenhouse gases explains the rise in SSTs in recent decades. These model results are not supported by observations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has been declining since 2000. Declining cloud cover has meant less shortwave radiation has been reflected to space, resulting in an increase in the solar radiation absorbed by the Earth\u2019s surface (ocean).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":342676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691830548,691830550,691830549,691818087,691820367],"class_list":{"0":"post-342670","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-ceres-clouds-and-the-earths-radiant-energy-system","9":"tag-earths-energy-imbalance","10":"tag-earths-surface-ocean","11":"tag-global-warming","12":"tag-solar-radiation","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=2193%2C1220&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1r8W","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":340498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340498","url_meta":{"origin":342670,"position":0},"title":"\u00a0Scientists: 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