{"id":342464,"date":"2024-09-09T18:39:02","date_gmt":"2024-09-09T16:39:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342464"},"modified":"2024-09-09T18:39:05","modified_gmt":"2024-09-09T16:39:05","slug":"co2-emissions-changes-2022-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342464","title":{"rendered":"CO2 Emissions Changes\u00a02022-2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Jit<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An update on the ongoing triumphal success of international climate agreements<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other day Robin noted<\/a> that the 2023 Edgar emissions database<\/a> had been released. You know me: I like numbers. So I decided to pull together a series of bullet points outlining how CO2<\/sub> emissions changed between 2022 and 2023. All data comes from the Edgar spreadsheet, available at the link.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Global Emissions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The global total emissions in 2023 were 39024 Mt CO2<\/sub>, up 777 Mt from 2022\u2019s 38247 Mt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is no longer possible to pretend that the pre-Covid high was the global crest. The average increase, year-on-year since 1970, has been ~ 440 Mt CO2<\/sub>\/yr. Last year we added far more than that. One would not be justified in claiming that the international agreements are anything more significant than pieces of paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2. Top- and bottom-ranked countries<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The countries with the most emissions are largely those that you would expect in the absence of any data. Here are the top ten. (The UK now ranks 19th.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Country<\/strong><\/td>CO2<\/sub> emissions Mt<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
China<\/td>13260<\/td><\/tr>
United States<\/td>4682<\/td><\/tr>
India<\/td>2955<\/td><\/tr>
Russia<\/td>2070<\/td><\/tr>
Japan<\/td>945<\/td><\/tr>
Iran<\/td>779<\/td><\/tr>
Indonesia<\/td>675<\/td><\/tr>
Saudi Arabia<\/td>623<\/td><\/tr>
Germany<\/td>583<\/td><\/tr>
Canada<\/td>575<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Regarding increases and decreases, this list shows the CO2<\/sub> emissions changes ranked from highest to lowest for every country with more than 1 trillion US GDP (about 30 countries). Slightly more countries in this subset are decreasing emissions than are increasing them, but the net is an increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Country<\/strong><\/td>Change in CO2<\/sub> emissions 2022-23 Mt<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
China<\/td>733<\/td><\/tr>
India<\/td>214<\/td><\/tr>
Viet Nam<\/td>48<\/td><\/tr>
Russia<\/td>44<\/td><\/tr>
Mexico<\/td>21<\/td><\/tr>
Iran<\/td>18<\/td><\/tr>
Indonesia<\/td>18<\/td><\/tr>
Saudi Arabia<\/td>18<\/td><\/tr>
Philippines<\/td>11<\/td><\/tr>
Malaysia<\/td>9<\/td><\/tr>
T\u00fcrkiye<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
Egypt<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Bangladesh<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Brazil<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Canada<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
Australia<\/td>-1<\/td><\/tr>
Thailand<\/td>-2<\/td><\/tr>
Nigeria<\/td>-2<\/td><\/tr>
Taiwan<\/td>-8<\/td><\/tr>
Argentina<\/td>-10<\/td><\/tr>
Netherlands<\/td>-10<\/td><\/tr>
South Korea<\/td>-14<\/td><\/tr>
Pakistan<\/td>-18<\/td><\/tr>
Spain and Andorra<\/td>-18<\/td><\/tr>
United Kingdom<\/td>-25<\/td><\/tr>
Italy, San Marino and the Holy See<\/td>-27<\/td><\/tr>
France and Monaco<\/td>-28<\/td><\/tr>
Poland<\/td>-30<\/td><\/tr>
Japan<\/td>-65<\/td><\/tr>
Germany<\/td>-77<\/td><\/tr>
United States<\/td>-105<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3. Per-capita emissions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The usual countries are at the top and bottom of this list, although to the tyro some names might be surprising. Not all are petrostates: there are also tiny Pacific islands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top ten per capita emitters<\/strong><\/td>t CO2<\/sub>\/cap<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Palau<\/td>63<\/td><\/tr>
Qatar<\/td>44<\/td><\/tr>
Kuwait<\/td>25<\/td><\/tr>
Brunei<\/td>21<\/td><\/tr>
New Caledonia<\/td>21<\/td><\/tr>
Bahrain<\/td>21<\/td><\/tr>
United Arab Emirates<\/td>20<\/td><\/tr>
Trinidad and Tobago<\/td>20<\/td><\/tr>
Gibraltar<\/td>20<\/td><\/tr>
Saudi Arabia<\/td>17<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Bottom ten per-capita emitters<\/strong><\/td>t CO2<\/sub>\/cap<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Madagascar<\/td>0.14<\/td><\/tr>
Sierra Leone<\/td>0.13<\/td><\/tr>
Rwanda<\/td>0.12<\/td><\/tr>
Eritrea<\/td>0.12<\/td><\/tr>
Niger<\/td>0.10<\/td><\/tr>
Central African Republic<\/td>0.07<\/td><\/tr>
Burundi<\/td>0.06<\/td><\/tr>
Somalia<\/td>0.05<\/td><\/tr>
Faroes<\/td>0.04<\/td><\/tr>
Democratic Republic of the Congo<\/td>0.04<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At the top then we have Palau at 63 t CO2<\/sub> per person per year, and down at the bottom, the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 40 kg <\/strong>CO2<\/sub> per person per year. That\u2019s a 1500-fold difference. The UK sits in about 70th place in a list of just over 200 countries at 4.4 t CO2<\/sub> per person per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. The dragon in the room<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

China increased its emissions of CO2<\/sub> from 12527 Mt to 13260 Mt, a rise of 733 Mt. It is worth comparing this increase in a single year with the UK\u2019s annual emissions of (2023) 302 Mt, down from 327 Mt in 2022. China\u2019s annual increase <\/strong>of 733 represents ~2.4 times the UK\u2019s annual <\/strong>emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Very roughly, China is adding a new UK to the global emissions database every 5 months. Another way of phrasing this is that, if the UK vanished from the globe tomorrow, the gap our absence made in emissions would be made good by our Chinese friends in the space of 5 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. GDP vs CO2<\/sub><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I have alleged before<\/a> that the countries that are growing in wealth are growing in energy use and that therefore they are growing their carbon dioxide emissions. Plotting the % change in GDP of the ~30 countries with GDP > 1 trillion US against the % change in their CO2<\/sub> emissions is an easy way to illustrate this. The GDP figures are back-calculated from within the Edgar spreadsheet: I divided the emissions by the emissions per GDP, with a suitable correction factor.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Of course, \u201cmature\u201d economies grow more slowly than developing countries, and those countries are likely to increase energy use and carbon dioxide emissions as they grow. But it cannot be denied that countries that are growing are doing so by increasing their energy use and that this is, so far, strictly tied to carbon dioxide emissions. It is possible to grow and cut CO2<\/sub> emissions, but your growth in this situation cannot help but be anaemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sceptic does not believe that growth and Net Zero are compatible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caveat<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The figures do not account for offshoring emissions. As we have discussed before<\/a>, for the UK, these may amount to 50% of our emissions. Given such an inflation factor, our emissions would not look so flattering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previous versions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I showed some statistics along these lines earlier this year<\/a> (albeit using total GHGs emitted as CO2<\/sub> eq). CO2<\/sub> is the lion\u2019s share of this, but some 30% is CH4<\/sub> etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Of course, \u201cmature\u201d economies grow more slowly than developing countries, and those countries are likely to increase energy use and carbon dioxide emissions as they grow. But it cannot be denied that countries that are growing are doing so by increasing their energy use and that this is, so far, strictly tied to carbon dioxide emissions. It is possible to grow and cut CO2\u00a0emissions, but your growth in this situation cannot help but be anaemic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":342472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691827130,691820974,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-342464","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","9":"tag-co2-emissions","10":"tag-net-zero","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/01200-266607-586726364.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1r5C","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":338193,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338193","url_meta":{"origin":342464,"position":0},"title":"No Gov. 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