{"id":342304,"date":"2024-09-08T10:30:51","date_gmt":"2024-09-08T08:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342304"},"modified":"2024-09-08T10:30:53","modified_gmt":"2024-09-08T08:30:53","slug":"new-study-finds-co2-is-merely-a-climate-spectator-a-non-factor-in-explaining-paleoclimate-changes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342304","title":{"rendered":"New Study Finds CO2 Is Merely A Climate \u2018Spectator\u2019, A Non-Factor In Explaining Paleoclimate Changes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026sea surface temperature has been the primary determinant of baseline atmospheric P(CO2) across the entire Cenozoic\u201d \u2013 Frank, 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new study<\/a><\/strong> analyzes paleo atmospheric CO2 levels using the modern-day observation that oceans release more CO2 as they warm and less CO2 as they cool \u2013 a reference to Henry\u2019s Law<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026ambient CO2 is released or dissolved only after a positive or negative change in global mean ocean temperature.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Application of Henry\u2019s Law allows for the calculated interpretation that the reconstructed 100s of ppm (\u00b1200-800 ppm) CO2 variations over the last 66 million years (the Cenozoic), as well as throughout the last 420,000 years of ice core records, are driven or \u201cprimarily determined\u201d by sea surface temperature (SST).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTemperature-driven re-equilibration of carbon dioxide across the sea surface can explain the rise and fall of atmospheric P(CO2) throughout the 420 kYr glacial record of the VOSTOK ice core. The correspondence implies a glacial-interglacial global mean SST range of 11\u00b0C (280-291 K)\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study introduces undersea tectonics variability as a explanatory mechanism for warm and cool periods. High magma activity periods warmed the oceans, and the additional warmth led to elevated (>1000 ppm) atmospheric CO2 levels (net outgassing) as a consequence. During less active magmatic activity periods, the oceans cooled, and this cooling drove the drawdown in atmospheric CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Henry\u2019s Law SST-induced CO2 concentration record implies glacial-interglacial global mean sea surface temperature amplitudes reached 11\u00b0C (280 to 291 K) over the last 420,000 years. 291 K is a few degrees warmer than the modern temperature calculation (288 K).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026the general decline in SST across the Cenozoic may reflect a relative quiescence of submarine magmatism and thus of magmatic heating, rather than being caused by a secular decline in the radiative forcing of atmospheric CO2.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026the most parsimonious interpretation of the Cenozoic record is that ocean temperature rose with large-scale magmatic activity and fell in its absence. P(CO2) followed. In this light, atmospheric CO2 has been a molecular spectator of the changing climate.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The presence of a geothermal mechanism explaining warm vs. cold SST periods precludes the need for orbital factors, such as the Milankovitch cycles, to drive glaciations and deglaciations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMilankovitch orbital forcing must have been present during the late Cretaceous and throughout the Cenozoic, but did not produce glaciations.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CO2 radiative forcing is also not considered an explanatory factor in global climate changes over the last 66 million years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe notion of exogenous CO2 forcing adds no additional explanatory value.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA generalizing conclusion is that the dogma of atmospheric CO2 as the predominant driver of global surface temperature should be set aside.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, to summarize, temperature variations are the \u201cprimary determinant\u201d of CO2 variations, with CO2 variation a consequence rather than a causal factor in climate. Atmospheric CO2 is thus a (1) \u201cmolecular spectator,\u201d (2) has \u201cno explanatory value\u201d in ocean temperature variability, and (3) \u201cshould be set aside\u201d as a considered causal factor in glaciations and deglaciations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Frank, 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It may be important to note that approximately 15-20% of current global warming (0.095 W\/m\u00b2 of the 0.48 W\/m\u00b2 heating rate) can be attributed to geothermal heat fluxes through the sea floor that \u201cpersistently heat the ocean\u201d (Gebbie, et al., 2021<\/strong><\/a>). The value attained for geothermal heating of the ocean, 87 mW\/m\u00b2, is similar to that which is required to end a glacial period (melt ice sheets) and transition into an interglacial. In other words, a bottom-up ocean-warming mechanism is ongoing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Images Source:\u00a0Gebbie, 2021<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Heimbach et al., 2019<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A magmatic ocean-warming mechanism driving glacial-interglacial transitions is supported by the conclusion that the ocean bottom waters warmed 2\u00b0C from 19,000 to 17,000 years ago. This is about 1000 years before the surface warmed and CO2 began rising (Stott et al., 2007<\/a><\/strong>), So, consistent with the conclusions of the new Dr. Frank study, geothermal heat fluxes can thus potentially explain a large portion of glacial-interglacial transitions \u2013 as well as millennial-scale global ocean temperature changes.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Stott et al., 2007<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new study analyzes paleo atmospheric CO2 levels using the modern-day observation that oceans release more CO2 as they warm and less CO2 as they cool \u2013 a reference to Henry\u2019s Law.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":342312,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823091,691827130,691830506,691820089],"class_list":{"0":"post-342304","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atmospheric-co2","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","10":"tag-ocean-warming-2","11":"tag-sea-surface-temperature","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/066-million-years-SST-drives-CO2-change-via-Henrys-Law-Frank-2024.jpg?fit=1249%2C813&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1r32","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":342168,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342168","url_meta":{"origin":342304,"position":0},"title":"Ockham\u2019s View of Cenozoic CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This essay starts with a thank-you. Willis Eschenbach has very often been a source of insight or inspiration here at WUWT. Back on 23 February 2024, Willis posted \u201cA Curious Paleo Puzzle,\u201d in which he drew attention to the work of James Rae, et al., (2021) Atmospheric CO2 over the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atmospheric CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"Atmospheric CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0NGS-PETM-final.jpg?fit=1200%2C427&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0NGS-PETM-final.jpg?fit=1200%2C427&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0NGS-PETM-final.jpg?fit=1200%2C427&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0NGS-PETM-final.jpg?fit=1200%2C427&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0NGS-PETM-final.jpg?fit=1200%2C427&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":303995,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303995","url_meta":{"origin":342304,"position":1},"title":"A Curious Paleo Puzzle","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Hmmm, sez I \u2026 looks like an interesting study. Paleo CO2\u00a0levels back to about 65 million years ago, which peaked at about 2000 ppmv.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atmospheric CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"Atmospheric CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atmospheric-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-CO2-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-CO2-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-CO2-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-CO2-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-CO2-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":364489,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364489","url_meta":{"origin":342304,"position":2},"title":"No, Grist, MSN, et al: CO2 Is Not Making Oceans\u00a0Boil","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"All this hype deriving from one study, and ignoring the facts falsifying that narrative.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0un-chief-antonio-guterres-declares-after-hottest-july-global-warming-era-over-global-boiling-era-begins.webp?fit=1200%2C677&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0un-chief-antonio-guterres-declares-after-hottest-july-global-warming-era-over-global-boiling-era-begins.webp?fit=1200%2C677&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0un-chief-antonio-guterres-declares-after-hottest-july-global-warming-era-over-global-boiling-era-begins.webp?fit=1200%2C677&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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article contains a point of misinformation that is very important. He writes in Wall Street Journal, \u201cClimate change is real and man-made; have no doubt about that.\u201d\u00a0 While it\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0history-of-world-temperature-l.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0history-of-world-temperature-l.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0history-of-world-temperature-l.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0history-of-world-temperature-l.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":350010,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350010","url_meta":{"origin":342304,"position":5},"title":"The Geological Record of Climate Change and Why Today\u2019s Increase in Atmospheric CO2 Is the Result of Global Warming, Not the Cause","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The climate is changing, and the geological record of climate change clearly shows that (a) we live in an unusually cold climate, (b) recent warming is neither dangerous or unusual, and (c) the main drivers of climate change are the sun, the oceans, and plate tectonics.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Dinosurs.jpeg?fit=1200%2C824&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Dinosurs.jpeg?fit=1200%2C824&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Dinosurs.jpeg?fit=1200%2C824&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Dinosurs.jpeg?fit=1200%2C824&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Dinosurs.jpeg?fit=1200%2C824&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342304","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=342304"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342304\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":342313,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342304\/revisions\/342313"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/342312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=342304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=342304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=342304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}