{"id":341488,"date":"2024-09-04T08:33:29","date_gmt":"2024-09-04T06:33:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341488"},"modified":"2024-09-04T08:33:31","modified_gmt":"2024-09-04T06:33:31","slug":"renewables-are-they-really-cheaper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341488","title":{"rendered":"Renewables: Are They Really Cheaper?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Manhattan Contrarian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Francis Menton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have had many posts on the soaring consumer electricity costs suffered by the residents of those jurisdictions that have proceeded furthest down the road to all-renewable power. These are places like Germany, the UK, and California, where consumer electricity prices are double to triple the U.S. average. But is that difference the result of their race to convert to wind and solar electricity generation, or does it stem instead from \u201cbad luck,\u201d or something else? Even as electricity prices in many of these places soar, advocates of wind and solar generation continue to claim that those resources are cheaper than the hydrocarbon alternatives. Do they have a point?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest back-and-forth has played out on the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal. On August 20, Republican candidate for Vice President J.D. Vance had an op-ed with the online headline \u201cHarris Wages War on U.S. Energy.\u201d<\/a> He argued:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe net-zero project is already stifling investment in the coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants that Americans rely on for reliable, affordable \u2018base load\u2019 electricity.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On August 28, the Journal ran a responsive letter to the editor from a guy named Mark Z. Jacobson. Jacobson is a professor at Stanford University, and is perhaps the most prominent advocate of transition to electricity generation from entirely renewable sources, what he calls \u201cWWS\u201d (wind, water, solar), with some sort of energy storage thrown in as back-up. Jacobson broke onto the scene back in 2011 with a paper in an Elsevier publication called Science Direct<\/a>, and followed that up with a major opus in PNAS in 2015 titled \u201cLow-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes.\u201d<\/a> <\/strong>The subsequent accumulation of evidence has not at all slowed Jacobson down. For example we have this piece in the Guardian from January 2023<\/a>, key quote: \u201cThe influential academic says renewables alone can halt climate crisis. . . . Wind, water and solar can provide plentiful and cheap power, he argues, ending the carbon emissions driving the climate crisis.\u201d <\/em>And if I haven\u2019t yet mentioned it, Jacobson is the driving force behind New York\u2019s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, via his acolyte Robert Howarth of Cornell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s consider Jacobson\u2019s August 28 WSJ letter. Here is the core of it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and North Dakota missed that problem [of expensive renewable power]. They are, aside from Montana, powered primarily by wind and are among the 12 states with the highest percentage of their electricity demand produced by clean, renewable sources. How do the 12 highly renewable states rank in terms of electricity prices? Ten of them are among the 19 states with the lowest electricity prices. Seven are among the 10 states with the lowest prices. South Dakota, with renewables supplying 95% of demand, has the ninth-lowest electricity price. North Dakota (52% renewables) has the lowest. More renewables mean lower prices.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is there something to that? Well, let\u2019s look at a few states, one at a time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jacobson lists South Dakota as his number one example. He says that renewables \u201csupply[] 95% of demand,\u201d<\/em> yet the state has the \u201cninth-lowest electricity price.\u201d<\/em> Do publicly-available data back that up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer is that publicly-available data for South Dakota are quite inconsistent and contradictory, but however you look at it they don\u2019t come close to backing up Jacobson\u2019s claim. Here is a page on South Dakota from the Department of Energy\u2019s Energy Information Administration, with an update date of August 15, 2024<\/a>. The data:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, wind provided 55% of South Dakota’s total electricity net generation. Wind surpassed the state’s previous leading electricity source, hydroelectric power, for the first time in 2021. Hydropower accounted for 21% of the state’s generation in 2023. . . . Renewable resources generated 77% of South Dakota’s total in-state electricity in 2023, almost all of it from wind and hydroelectric power.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So according to that, \u201crenewables\u201d provided 77% of SD\u2019s generation, not the 95% claimed by Jacobson; and of the 77%, 21% came from hydro from dams on the Missouri River. Sorry if you don\u2019t have a Missouri River running through your state to replicate that. Wind generated just 55%. Yes, that is better than El Hierro does in most years, but a long, long way from zero-emissions generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now let\u2019s take a look at the very different 2023 data from the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission<\/a>. These data are for electricity \u201cconsumed\u201d in South Dakota, rather than electricity \u201cgenerated\u201d in South Dakota, which may or may not explain the gigantic discrepancy. Here is the PUC\u2019s pie graph:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Suddenly coal is by far the largest source, at 36.13%, which puts it at more than the \u201crenewables\u201d wind, solar, and hydro combined (32.35%). Maybe all the rest of that wind generation gets given away to neighboring states at times of excess generation when SD can\u2019t use it. I have no way of figuring that out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, where did our friend Jacobson come up with the statistic that South Dakota supplies \u201c95% of [electricity] demand] from renewables\u201d<\/em>? I have no idea. Most likely he is relying on the principle that leftists and climate activists don\u2019t get fact-checked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For what it\u2019s worth, here is EIA\u2019s chart of \u201caverage price of electricity to utility customers\u201d for June 2024<\/a> (most recent month available). The states are not ranked in price order, but if I\u2019m counting correctly South Dakota has the 16th lowest residential electricity rates among the states, and the 22nd lowest rates for \u201call sectors\u201d combined. Not bad, but also not close to the \u201cninth lowest\u201d that Jacobson claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shall we try another state? Next in Jacobson\u2019s list is Montana. Jacobson concedes that Montana is not \u201cpowered primarily by wind,\u201d<\/em> but then he says it is \u201camong the 12 states with the highest percentage of their electricity demand produced by clean, renewable sources.\u201d <\/em>Take a closer look, and once again it turns out that Montana\u2019s secret is dams on the Missouri River. The EIA<\/a> (cheerleaders for \u201crenewables\u201d without telling you which one they are talking about) has this to say:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, Montana ranked among the top 10 states with the largest share of electricity generated from renewables, about 50%. Coal-fired power plants provided the largest share of Montana’s electricity generation in 2023, accounting for 45% of in-state generation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how much of that 50% from \u201crenewables\u201d is hydropower from the Missouri River dams, how much is wind, and how much is something else? The best source for that that I can find is this Report from the Montana legislature with an issue date of 2023<\/a>, but data going only through 2021. A chart on page 24 going to 2021 shows about 40% of electricity generation from coal, another 40% from hydro, and about 10% from wind. There is a substantial unspecified \u201cother\u201d category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again, for what it\u2019s worth, on EIA\u2019s June 2024 chart, Montana\u2019s electricity rates appear to be 12th lowest among the states for residential, and 11th lowest for \u201call sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Jacobson\u2019s first two examples don\u2019t come close to supporting his case. Looking at the other states he cites, I think the one that best supports his case is Iowa. So let\u2019s look there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iowa, for better or worse, has gone farther than any other state in building wind turbines to supply its electricity. According to the EIA here<\/a>, wind turbines generated 62% of Iowa\u2019s electricity in 2022, which was the highest percentage of any state. From another EIA page here<\/a>, Iowans purchased 54,203,955 MWh of electricity in 2022, which would make for average demand of 6188 MW (dividing by 8760). The Iowa Utilities Commission here<\/a> tells us the generating resources that Iowa has deployed to meet this demand: 12,543 MW of wind capacity, 5543 of coal, 4148 of natural gas, 5253 of petroleum, and small amounts of others. What this tells us is that Iowa had plenty of generation resources to meet demand before it started building any wind turbines. It has more than a two-times overbuild of wind turbines alone as against average demand, and it has more than a four times overbuild if you count everything. Clearly, Iowa has a lot of generation resources sitting idle most of the time. And, whatever its average rates may be, they could be a lot lower if they stopped supporting large amounts of mostly-idle capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So where do Iowa\u2019s rates rank nationally? According to that same EIA chart, they are 22nd lowest for residential rates, and 10th lowest for \u201call sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two comments:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(1) At a 2x overbuild of wind turbine capacity and 62% of generation from wind, Iowa has pushed up against the limit of what it can get by just building more wind turbines. As of now, it has barely dipped its toe into the world of energy storage. Going forward, it will quickly find that more wind turbines can only marginally increase the percent of its electricity from wind, and buying batteries is completely uneconomic and not a viable solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(2) The prices of electricity from wind are wildly distorted by the myriad of tax benefits and subsidies available to wind turbine developers. Just for starters<\/a>, there is the federal investment tax credit (30% of the capital value of the investment in wind turbines) and the federal production tax credit (2.75 cents per kWh of electricity produced). Then there is the complete exemption from property taxes<\/a> for five years from the state of Iowa. There are multiple federal guaranteed loan programs<\/a> providing subsidized interest rates. There are handouts of every sort from the likes of the Agriculture Department and the Rural Electrification Administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, how much are all these subsidies and handouts worth in consumer electricity rates? It\u2019s all completely opaque. There\u2019s no way for an informed citizen to figure it out. The subsidies are easily worth 5 cents per kWh, and probably more like 10 or even 15 cents per kWh. Add in the value of the subsidies, and Iowa would not be in the lower ranks for electricity prices, but rather well toward the top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when Jacobson recommends building wind turbines to lower electricity prices, he\u2019s not really saying that they are economically cheaper; he\u2019s just saying that sufficient subsidies are available to make the consumer prices appear<\/em> cheaper. He\u2019s using gkam accounting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, we\u2019ll see if Iowa and its co-enthusiasts for wind power can keep marching forward to the 100% zero-emissions future. I will be the first to congratulate them if they can pull it off. But let\u2019s face it \u2014 they can\u2019t. And as they start adding storage, their prices are set to go through the roof.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have had many posts on the soaring consumer electricity costs suffered by the residents of those jurisdictions that have proceeded furthest down the road to all-renewable power. These are places like Germany, the UK, and California, where consumer electricity prices are double to triple the U.S. average. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":341493,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819691,691818154,691819094],"class_list":{"0":"post-341488","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-electricity-prices","9":"tag-net-zero","10":"tag-renewable-green-energy","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-44.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qPS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":405733,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405733","url_meta":{"origin":341488,"position":0},"title":"BJORN LOMBORG: Trump\u2019s UN speech reveals inconvenient truth of massive green energy costs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Germany, Spain and UK pay double or triple US rates despite huge renewable investments","rel":"","context":"In \"European Union (EU)\"","block_context":{"text":"European Union (EU)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=european-union-eu"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQOWgtMCM3wlngsLE4QNXOXJ-XCJHicDhT4qU7F51ZKS-4q6wZuwjm8QJ_0c518N6wvycSL8nxAv3m19TN1aFNJGVbFbjAqtpvICa3zXBFf0u_ScldC2m2Qc-LkSRw-Y-1.jpeg?fit=1159%2C747&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQOWgtMCM3wlngsLE4QNXOXJ-XCJHicDhT4qU7F51ZKS-4q6wZuwjm8QJ_0c518N6wvycSL8nxAv3m19TN1aFNJGVbFbjAqtpvICa3zXBFf0u_ScldC2m2Qc-LkSRw-Y-1.jpeg?fit=1159%2C747&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQOWgtMCM3wlngsLE4QNXOXJ-XCJHicDhT4qU7F51ZKS-4q6wZuwjm8QJ_0c518N6wvycSL8nxAv3m19TN1aFNJGVbFbjAqtpvICa3zXBFf0u_ScldC2m2Qc-LkSRw-Y-1.jpeg?fit=1159%2C747&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQOWgtMCM3wlngsLE4QNXOXJ-XCJHicDhT4qU7F51ZKS-4q6wZuwjm8QJ_0c518N6wvycSL8nxAv3m19TN1aFNJGVbFbjAqtpvICa3zXBFf0u_ScldC2m2Qc-LkSRw-Y-1.jpeg?fit=1159%2C747&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQOWgtMCM3wlngsLE4QNXOXJ-XCJHicDhT4qU7F51ZKS-4q6wZuwjm8QJ_0c518N6wvycSL8nxAv3m19TN1aFNJGVbFbjAqtpvICa3zXBFf0u_ScldC2m2Qc-LkSRw-Y-1.jpeg?fit=1159%2C747&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":249299,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249299","url_meta":{"origin":341488,"position":1},"title":"Night-Time & Calm Weather: Why Intermittent Wind & Solar Are Driving Power Prices Into Orbit","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Chaotically intermittent wind and solar are at the heart of surging retail power bills. 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But prices are soaring in green energy states that install wind and solar\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"electricity prices\"","block_context":{"text":"electricity prices","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electricity-prices"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":202857,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=202857","url_meta":{"origin":341488,"position":5},"title":"Biden’s Most Preposterous Lie Is Too Much Even for The Washington Post","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"When President Biden talks, there may or may not be any connection between what he says and the real world. Yes, you need to give every politician some leeway, since most of what any politician says will fall in the general realm of political exaggeration or hyperbole. 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