{"id":341454,"date":"2024-09-03T16:23:46","date_gmt":"2024-09-03T14:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341454"},"modified":"2024-09-03T16:23:48","modified_gmt":"2024-09-03T14:23:48","slug":"the-graphs-that-prove-labour-is-lying-that-renewable-energy-will-cut-bills","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341454","title":{"rendered":"The Graphs That Prove Labour is Lying That Renewable Energy Will Cut Bills"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by\u00a0David Turver<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new Labour Government has set itself the mission<\/a> of making Britain a \u201cclean energy superpower\u201d to \u201ccut bills, create jobs and deliver security with cheaper zero-carbon electricity by 2030, accelerating to Net Zero\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article examines those claims and the forces that are likely to crush the Net Zero pipedream.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cost of Renewables<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

First, as discussed here<\/a>, existing intermittent renewables are much more expensive than the reliable gas-fired electricity which must be displaced if we are to achieve a zero carbon grid by 2030. Although new renewables are cheaper than the existing fleet, they are still much more expensive than gas-fired power as shown in Figure 1 below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1 \u2013 Change in CfD Strike Prices from AR5 to AR6 vs Recent Market Price (\u00a3 per MWh)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

All the technologies that are being pushed by the Government for GB Energy and the debt-funded National Wealth Fund have increased in price since last year, and the basic costs of the Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are more expensive than the \u00a366 per MWh average market price for the first four months of financial year 2024-25. The average market price is largely set by gas and includes carbon taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, we should add extra costs to renewables such as the \u00a32.5 billion in grid balancing costs we paid last year and around \u00a31 billion for the Capacity Market which would not be needed on such a scale if we did not have so much renewable capacity on the grid. Finally, National Grid ESO has announced \u00a354 billion of spending<\/a> on the electricity network infrastructure up to 2030 and a further \u00a358 billion<\/a> in the 2030-2035 period, a total of \u00a3112 billion. This is over \u00a310 billion per year for more than a decade to connect remote intermittent renewables to the grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yawning Gap Between Projections and Reality<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The claim the Government is going to cut bills and deliver cheaper, cleaner zero-carbon electricity by 2030 looks to be on very shaky ground. We need to understand where this claim comes from. Many reports of cheaper renewables originate from the (previous) Government\u2019s 2023 Generation Costs Report<\/a>, which made some extraordinary claims that are proving to be untrue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When two lines diverge on a chart, they are often referred to as \u2018crocodile jaws\u2019. As we shall see below, the crocodile jaws made by comparing the reality of contract awards and offers in the allocation round auctions to Government predictions are getting wider. The upper jaw in purple is the contract awards and offers and the lower jaw in orange is the Government projections made in the 2023 Generation Cost report. The yawning gap between projections and reality must surely crush its Net Zero plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solar Power Projections vs CfD Awards and Offers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Let us start with solar power, see Figure 2. Remember Labour wants to triple solar capacity by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2 \u2013 Government Solar Power Projections vs CfD Awards and Offers (\u00a3 per MWh)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Generation Cost report quoted all technologies using 2021 prices and they stated solar power could be delivered in 2025 at \u00a341per MWh, falling to \u00a330 per MWh by 2040. We can see that the price of solar power was over \u00a3110 per MWh (in 2024 prices) when Triangle Farm won a Contract for Difference (CfD) in AR1 and became operational in 2018. Prices then fell to AR4 with awards made for 2024-25 delivery in AR4<\/a> at \u00a364 per MWh. That was the low point of offers and delivery, AR5 awarded<\/a> contracts for 2026-27 delivery at \u00a366 per MWh and AR6 is offering<\/a> new contracts for 2027-28 delivery at \u00a385 per MWh, more than double the Government projections for 2025 and 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These recent offers are above current market prices, even without factoring in the extra costs that should be attributed to renewables, so there is no way that tripling solar power by 2030 will cut bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Onshore Wind Projections vs CfD Awards and Offers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Moving on to onshore wind, see Figure 3. Remember Labour wants to double onshore wind capacity by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 3 \u2013 Government Onshore Wind Projections vs CfD Awards and Offers (\u00a3 per MWh)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Generation Cost report stated onshore wind power could be delivered in 2025 at \u00a344 per MWh, falling slightly to \u00a341 per MWh by 2040. Moor House onshore wind farm was awarded a contract in AR1 and became operational in 2018 at a current price of over \u00a3110 per MWh. Prices then fell, with awards made for 2024-25 delivery in AR4<\/a> at \u00a359 per MWh (at 2024 prices). That was the low point of offers and delivery, AR5 awarded<\/a> contracts for 2026-27 delivery at \u00a373 per MWh and AR6<\/a> is offering new contracts for 2027-28 delivery at \u00a389 per MWh, more than double the Government projections for 2025 and 2030 and above recent gas-fired electricity prices. Again, there is no way that adding more expensive onshore wind capacity will bring down bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Offshore Wind Projections vs CfD Awards and Offers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Finally, we come to offshore wind, see Figure 4. Remember Labour wants to quadruple offshore wind capacity by 2030 and want it to become the largest source of renewable electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 4 \u2013 Government Offshore Wind Projections vs CfD Awards and Offers (\u00a3 per MWh)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The crocodile jaws of the chart are widest for offshore wind. The Generation Cost report stated offshore wind power could be delivered in 2025 at \u00a344 per MWh, then fluctuating somewhat before settling at \u00a341 per MWh by 2040. Prices have fallen since East Anglia 1 was awarded a contract in AR1 at \u00a3166 per MWh at today\u2019s prices and activated its CfD in 2019. More recent projects such as Triton Knoll and Moray East also saw prices falling further. The low point of contract awards came with AR4 when projects for 2024-25 delivery<\/a> at \u00a352 per MWh (at 2024 prices) won the auction. However, we should remember that Vattenfall has pulled out<\/a> of the Norfolk Boreas project that won a contract in AR4 because of soaring costs. Other projects are being offered the possibility of re-bidding parts of their projects at higher prices. AR5 offered<\/a> contracts for 2026-27 delivery at \u00a361 per MWh but received no bids. AR6 is offering<\/a> new contracts for 2027-28 delivery at \u00a3102 per MWh, much more than double the Government projections for 2025 and 2030 and higher than gas-fired electricity. Again, adding more offshore wind capacity at these prices will only increase our energy bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It is clear the Department for Energy and Net Zero, under the previous Government, peddled dangerous disinformation in its Generation Costs report from 2023. The Department must know the prices it projected are wrong because it also sets the strike prices for the CfD auction rounds. But Labour and others use this report to substantiate their claim that renewables are getting cheaper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reality, the opposite is the case; renewables were never cheap and they are now getting much more expensive. More expensive than Government projections and more expensive than gas-fired electricity. Yet the Labour Government has recently increased the budget<\/a> for AR6 so it can deliver even more of this more expensive, intermittent electricity. Labour has also announced that the Winter Fuel Allowance will be cut, reducing the ability of pensioners to pay for this more expensive electricity. Its self-declared mission to \u201ccut bills, create jobs and deliver security with cheaper zero-carbon electricity by 2030\u201d is in tatters. We can only hope that the jaws of the reality crocodile close soon to avoid further damage and the 2023 Generation Cost Report is withdrawn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Turver writes the <\/em>Eigen Values<\/a> Substack page, where this article first appeared<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The new Labour Government has set itself the mission of making Britain a \u201cclean energy superpower\u201d to \u201ccut bills, create jobs and deliver security with cheaper zero-carbon electricity by 2030, accelerating to Net Zero\u201d.<\/p>\n

This article examines those claims and the forces that are likely to crush the Net Zero pipedream.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":341455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829892,691819180,691819630,691820075,691818154,691818181],"class_list":{"0":"post-341454","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-department-of-energy-net-zero","9":"tag-energy-costs","10":"tag-energy-crisis","11":"tag-labour","12":"tag-net-zero","13":"tag-renewable-energy","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/00Screenshot-2024-09-02-170237.jpeg?fit=1438%2C819&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qPk","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":438520,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=438520","url_meta":{"origin":341454,"position":0},"title":"Red Ed Strikes Again \u2013 OpenAI Abandons \u00a331bn UK AI Push Over Miliband’s Energy Nightmare","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"OpenAI has officially paused its Stargate UK data centre project \u2013 part of the \u00a331 billion US tech investment package announced last September with partners like Nvidia and Nscale \u2013 citing high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty as the deal-breakers.","rel":"","context":"In \"AI (artificial intelligence)\"","block_context":{"text":"AI (artificial intelligence)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ai-artificial-intelligence-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Red-Ed-Strikes-Again-%E2%80%93-OpenAI-Abandons-31bn-UK-AI-Push-Over-Milibands-Energy-Nightmare.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Red-Ed-Strikes-Again-%E2%80%93-OpenAI-Abandons-31bn-UK-AI-Push-Over-Milibands-Energy-Nightmare.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Red-Ed-Strikes-Again-%E2%80%93-OpenAI-Abandons-31bn-UK-AI-Push-Over-Milibands-Energy-Nightmare.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Red-Ed-Strikes-Again-%E2%80%93-OpenAI-Abandons-31bn-UK-AI-Push-Over-Milibands-Energy-Nightmare.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":263792,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=263792","url_meta":{"origin":341454,"position":1},"title":"The Man Who Would Be Green\u00a0King","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Sir Keir Starmer felt the need last week to come out and give a speech on energy. 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