{"id":341439,"date":"2024-09-03T15:59:43","date_gmt":"2024-09-03T13:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341439"},"modified":"2024-09-03T15:59:46","modified_gmt":"2024-09-03T13:59:46","slug":"new-study-human-emissions-irrelevant-in-determining-changes-in-atmospheric-co2-since-1959","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341439","title":{"rendered":"New Study: Human Emissions \u2018Irrelevant\u2019 In Determining Changes In Atmospheric CO2 Since 1959"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe main factor governing the annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is the SST [sea surface temperature] rather than human emissions.\u201d \u2013 Ato, 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another day, another new scientific paper<\/a><\/strong> has been published reporting efforts to curb anthropogenic CO2 emissions are \u201cmeaningless.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this study multiple linear regression analysis was performed comparing SST versus anthropogenic CO2 emissions as explanatory factors and the annual changes in atmospheric CO2 as the objective variable over the period 1959-2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model using the SSTs (NASA, NOAA, UAH) best explained the annual CO2 change (regression coefficient B = 2.406, P = <0.0002), whereas human emissions were not shown to be an explanatory factor at all in annual CO2 changes (regression coefficient B = 0.0027, P = 0.863).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most impressively, the predicted atmospheric CO2 concentration using the regression equation derived from 1960-2022 SSTs had an extremely high correlation coefficient of r = 0.9995.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, not only is the paradigm that says humans drive atmospheric CO2 changes wrong, but \u201cthe theory that global warming and climate change are caused by human-emitted CO2 is also wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSST has been the determinant of the annual changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and [\u2026] anthropogenic emissions have been irrelevant in this process, by head-to-head comparison.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Ato, 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is not the first study to have addressed this lack of correlation between annual changes in atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic CO2 emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wang et al. (2013<\/a><\/strong>) assessed that CO2 emissions derived from human activity (fossil fuel combustion and land use changes) only account for about +0.1 to 0.3 PgC\/yr of the annual change in CO2 concentration. This is about \u201c10% of the variance (\u03c3\u00b2) of the CO2 growth rate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Wang et al., 2013<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Jones and Cox (2005<\/a><\/strong>) have pointed out that the changes associated with annual fossil fuel emissions are unlikely to explain CO2 growth rate anomalies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026it is unlikely that these anomalies can be explained by an abrupt increase in anthropogenic emissions, as the anomalies are much larger than annual increases in fossil fuel emissions.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Jones and Cox, 2005<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Jari Ahlbeck (2009<\/a><\/strong>) also assessed the correlation between fossil fuel emissions and the increase in CO2 growth rates is \u201cclearly statistically insignificant.\u201d He therefore excluded this factor from consideration in his analysis of the mechanisms of CO2 variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A chart included in the body of the paper reveals 5-year periods where there was either a decline in the annual CO2 emissions trend (5.33, 5.17, 5.13, 5.11, 5.29 GtC\/yr for 1980-1984) or a flattened trend (6.40, 6.53, 6.63, 6.59, 6.57 GtC\/yr for 1995-1999).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Ahlbeck, 2009<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Even an analysis detailed in the\u00a0Carbon Brief<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0blog from a few years ago suggests \u201cglobal CO2 emissions have been flat \u2013 if not slightly declining \u2013 over the past 10 years.\u201d This obviously does not support the conclusion that an increase in the CO2 growth rate has been driven by flat to declining human emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Carbon Brief<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

An additional side note found in the Ato paper addresses the lack of a link between human methane emissions and atmospheric methane growth rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although human methane emissions have risen dramatically in recent decades, \u201catmospheric methane concentrations have declined since the 21st century.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026natural fluctuations are far more powerful than human emissions in terms of the influence on atmospheric methane levels.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Image Source:\u00a0Ato, 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

So we not only have a lack of correlation between human emissions and annual variations in atmospheric CO2 (and CH4), we even have flat to declining trends in annual anthropogenic CO2 (and CH4) emissions in recent decades \u2013 the\u00a0opposite<\/em>\u00a0explanatory directionality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Another day, another\u00a0new scientific paper\u00a0has been published reporting efforts to curb anthropogenic CO2 emissions are \u201cmeaningless.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":336211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819270,691827130,691830458,691830457],"class_list":{"0":"post-341439","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-anthropogenic-co2","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","10":"tag-period-1959-2022","11":"tag-sst-sea-surface-temperature","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Carbon_cycle-cute_diagram-1.jpg?fit=1600%2C1100&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qP5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":431871,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=431871","url_meta":{"origin":341439,"position":0},"title":"CO2 Facts Net Zero Zealots are Hiding from\u00a0You","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Below is a compendium of important contemporary findings everyone needs to know, not to be duped by the climatists. 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(CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQM1cIGdgz7DkNarzZVgdyYl73Khsqa0oWuS_V1ai4u86xrkWAq3SzEhZYDUbjFsY0Hj4ibLKPKM7vBcFNsRR-iY4m-TYgVWPoMv_Rg9ZDBhnMcPhkZ2NSM_obbuowy1J2bz3jaoTE9BLWCF6Zt-qk8bMHtr8Q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQM1cIGdgz7DkNarzZVgdyYl73Khsqa0oWuS_V1ai4u86xrkWAq3SzEhZYDUbjFsY0Hj4ibLKPKM7vBcFNsRR-iY4m-TYgVWPoMv_Rg9ZDBhnMcPhkZ2NSM_obbuowy1J2bz3jaoTE9BLWCF6Zt-qk8bMHtr8Q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQM1cIGdgz7DkNarzZVgdyYl73Khsqa0oWuS_V1ai4u86xrkWAq3SzEhZYDUbjFsY0Hj4ibLKPKM7vBcFNsRR-iY4m-TYgVWPoMv_Rg9ZDBhnMcPhkZ2NSM_obbuowy1J2bz3jaoTE9BLWCF6Zt-qk8bMHtr8Q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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demonstrate that, since the late 1950s, temperature-induced increases in plant and soil emissions (31.6 Gt-C\/yr) account for a 3.4 times greater ratio of the >100 ppm rise in atmospheric CO2 than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQMgn6DKBwpV7luRs_r-fgcrmcp2ai8UVlDHGQqSfCYXG__w65JPsaGDtaqjtduvpFjlTBWKSQLSa5XV1utSeowJ3myFJYBlm9MfVXVfy47cU8FAjm3_g_zTxSprC7wA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C737&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQMgn6DKBwpV7luRs_r-fgcrmcp2ai8UVlDHGQqSfCYXG__w65JPsaGDtaqjtduvpFjlTBWKSQLSa5XV1utSeowJ3myFJYBlm9MfVXVfy47cU8FAjm3_g_zTxSprC7wA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C737&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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Influences","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"SUMMARY The proper way of looking for causal relationships between time series data (e.g. between atmospheric CO2 and temperature) is discussed. While statistical analysis alone is unlikely to provide \u201cproof\u201d of causation, use of the \u2018master equation\u2019 is shown to avoid common pitfalls. Correlation analysis of natural and anthropogenic forcings\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-dCO2dt-vs-anthro-and-natural-terms.jpg?fit=720%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-dCO2dt-vs-anthro-and-natural-terms.jpg?fit=720%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-dCO2dt-vs-anthro-and-natural-terms.jpg?fit=720%2C960&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Mauna-Loa-dCO2dt-vs-anthro-and-natural-terms.jpg?fit=720%2C960&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":202643,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=202643","url_meta":{"origin":341439,"position":5},"title":"Royal Society: Scientific Method Application Shows the Perception CO2 Causes Global Warming \u2018Can Be Excluded\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Instead of focusing on probabilistic percentages and constructed correlations between two events in efforts to determine potential causality, 4 scientists have revisited the requisite\u00a0conditions\u00a0for causality in applying the scientific method. They find \u201cthe common perception that increasing CO2 causes increased [temperature] can be excluded because it violates the necessary condition\u2026","rel":"","context":"With 3 comments","block_context":{"text":"With 3 comments","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=202643#comments"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0f3bf9c5227789c9bf5dbece5dadf2a05.jpg?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0f3bf9c5227789c9bf5dbece5dadf2a05.jpg?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0f3bf9c5227789c9bf5dbece5dadf2a05.jpg?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0f3bf9c5227789c9bf5dbece5dadf2a05.jpg?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0f3bf9c5227789c9bf5dbece5dadf2a05.jpg?fit=1200%2C926&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=341439"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341439\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":341453,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341439\/revisions\/341453"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/336211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=341439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=341439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=341439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}