{"id":341047,"date":"2024-08-29T17:34:48","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T15:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341047"},"modified":"2024-08-29T17:34:50","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T15:34:50","slug":"why-is-cheap-wind-power-so-expensive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341047","title":{"rendered":"Why Is Cheap Wind Power So Expensive?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by\u00a0<\/strong>Willis Eschenbach<\/a> (@weschenbach on eX-Twitter)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back on March 29, 2021, the Biden White House took on the\u00a0following goals<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hmmm, sez I, seems a mite ambitious. Current US grid-connected offshore wind is a mere 0.17 gigawatts \u2026 so we\u2019d need to do ~ 175 times as much as we\u2019ve done to date and do it in a short six years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I divided it out. There are 65 months until 2030. Thirty gigawatts is thirty thousand megawatts, less the 174 megawatts in place, that\u2019s 29,826 megawatts more total generating capacity needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

29,826 megawatts divided by 65 months means we\u2019d have to add offshore wind generation to the tune of 465 additional megawatts of generation capacity per month<\/strong>. Every month. Starting now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get real. That\u2019s not remotely possible. The biggest US offshore windfarm just came on line, 132 MW capacity. To reach the White House goal, every month<\/strong> we\u2019d need to build three new windfarms<\/strong> of that size. No way that can happen. It\u2019s just numbers picked out of the air to gain popular support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, I researched the length of time it takes to get an offshore wind farm online. Here\u2019s what ChatGPT sez:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The time from the proposal of an offshore wind farm to its grid connection typically ranges from 7 to 10 years. This timeline can be broken down into several phases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pre-development and Planning (1-2 years):<\/strong> This phase involves site identification, feasibility studies, and initial environmental assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Permitting and Approvals (3-5 years):<\/strong> Securing the necessary permits and approvals is often the most time-consuming part of the process. This includes detailed environmental impact assessments, consultations with stakeholders, and obtaining state and federal permits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Construction (2-3 years):<\/strong> Once all approvals are secured, construction of the wind farm, including the installation of turbines and subsea cables, takes place. This phase also includes the grid connection process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commissioning and Testing (several months):<\/strong> After construction, the turbines are tested, and the wind farm is gradually brought online.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Seems unreasonable but likely factual. So what that means is that unless a project is well underway right now, it won\u2019t be online until after 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the Biden Administration, there have been nine offshore wind projects approved<\/a>. These propose building a total of 13 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity. However, only two of these projects are actually under construction or completed \u2014Vineyard Wind, located off the coast of Massachusetts, and South Fork Wind<\/a>, located near the coasts of Rhode Island and New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Fork Wind just came online. This gives us a chance to look at some actual cost figures. It\u2019s the biggest wind farm to date, a 132-megawatt<\/strong> addition to offshore wind. It cost $637 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Note that to reach the 30 GW goal, we\u2019d need no less than 225 wind farms of this size \u2026 but I digress)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Federal subsidies added $191 million to that, plus another couple of hundred million or so from Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stop and consider. Some private company is building a six-hundred-million-dollar white elephant in the middle of the ocean, and it\u2019s getting paid four hundred million of taxpayer money to do so.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So \u2026 what does the New York consumer get for all of this more than generous support?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer gets wind power costing FOUR TIMES AS MUCH <\/a>as the current cost of power in New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stop and consider. Even when the developer gets two-thirds of the cost paid by the taxpayer, offshore wind power is still four times as expensive.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And of course, that doesn\u2019t even touch the cost of maintaining backup power for the times when there\u2019s no wind \u2026 the cartoonist Josh<\/a> sees that clearly.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Here\u2019s<\/a> more about the real-world cost of offshore wind power in New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, I\u2019m sure that what\u2019s next is the Harris\/Walz campaign will declare that they are 100% behind expensive, intermittent, unreliable wind power, and will claim that if elected, they\u2019ll do what they already said they\u2019d do when Ms. Harris was last elected, which was to screw the consumer and the taxpayer with the huge subsidies, tax breaks, and electricity costs of offshore wind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh, yeah. They claim that the 30 GW of offshore wind will \u201cavoid 78 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions\u201d. Tens of millions of tonnes, sounds impressive, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But IF the IPCC is correct, and that\u2019s a big if, this will reduce the temperature in the year 2050 by \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 wait for it \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 0.0016\u00b0C. Which is almost three-thousandths of one degree F.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can we please pass a law saying people proposing any laws or regulations in the name of \u201cclimate change\u201d be required to tell us (and show their math) how much actual temperature difference that will make by 2050?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Go ahead. Ask the folks in New York, \u201cAre you willing to pay four times the going rate for electricity for the rest of your life to MAYBE cool the globe by three-thousandths of one degree Fahrenheit a quarter century from now?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regards to all,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Always: <\/strong>I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words you\u2019re discussing. Avoids endless foolishness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Math.<\/strong> TRIGGER WARNING!! <\/strong>I did say \u201cshow the math\u201d didn\u2019t I \u2026 but this is just arithmetic. Take heart.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Anything after a hashmark \u201c#\u201d on a line is a comment. A line starting with \u201c>\u201d is an instruction to the computer. A line starting with \u201c[1]\u201d is the result of the calculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

> (gtco2 = 78e6 * 20 \/ 1e9) # \"gtco2\" is total gigatonnes CO2 avoided, 2030-2050<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] 1.56 # gigatonnes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

> (deltappmv = gtco2 * 12 \/ 44 \/ 2.13) # convert GT C02 to GT carbon, then to ppmv<\/code> (2.13 GTonnes C = 1 ppmv)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] 0.20 # ppmv difference in 2050 due to wind farm<\/p>\n\n\n\n

> (fullchange = (gettrend(co2ts) * 26 + 425)) # current atmospheric CO2 trend extended from 2024 to 2050<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] 467.6 # atmospheric ppmv CO2 in 2050<\/p>\n\n\n\n

> (theforce = log2((fullchange + deltappmv) \/ fullchange) * 3.7) # W\/m2 forcing change due to 2050 CO2 difference<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] 0.0023 # W\/m2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

> (tempchange = .7 * theforce) # temperature change from the CO2 forcing<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] 0.0016 # \u00b0C<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hmmm, sez I, seems a mite ambitious. Current US grid-connected offshore wind is a mere 0.17 gigawatts \u2026 so we\u2019d need to do ~ 175 times as much as we\u2019ve done to date and do it in a short six years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":341056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820979,691821016,691830390,691818301,691830389],"class_list":{"0":"post-341047","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-bureau-of-ocean-energy-management-boem","9":"tag-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration-noaa","10":"tag-new-york-state-energy-research-and-development-authority-nyserda","11":"tag-offshore-wind","12":"tag-us-grid","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-US-offshore-wind-power.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qIL","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":325727,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=325727","url_meta":{"origin":341047,"position":0},"title":"Offshore wind is gearing up to bulldoze the ocean","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Biden Administration has recently produced a wave of plans and regulatory actions aimed at building a monstrous amount of destructive offshore wind. 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Simple reporting of the facts, from costs to environmental tradeoffs, could inform the public and voters to quite possibly eliminate the government gravy train that disadvantages virtually all of us. 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It has the largest share of wind power in its national grid, and is home to the industry giants, Vestas and Orstead \u2014 two of the world\u2019s largest wind-manufacturers . Denmark is planning a large expansion in wind energy (or it was).\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"3 GW offshore wind auction\"","block_context":{"text":"3 GW offshore wind auction","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=3-gw-offshore-wind-auction"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00image-soutron-api.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00image-soutron-api.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00image-soutron-api.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00image-soutron-api.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/00image-soutron-api.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":341542,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=341542","url_meta":{"origin":341047,"position":3},"title":"Why Is Cheap Wind Power So Expensive?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Hmmm, sez I, seems a mite ambitious. 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BOEM is also reviewing offshore wind energy development options for the Gulf of Maine, Central Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and maybe Great Lakes.","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden Administration\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden Administration","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0-floating-offshore-wind.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0-floating-offshore-wind.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0-floating-offshore-wind.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0-floating-offshore-wind.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0-floating-offshore-wind.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=341047"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341047\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":341058,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/341047\/revisions\/341058"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/341056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=341047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=341047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=341047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}