{"id":340593,"date":"2024-08-25T17:24:14","date_gmt":"2024-08-25T15:24:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340593"},"modified":"2024-08-25T17:24:16","modified_gmt":"2024-08-25T15:24:16","slug":"the-energy-transition-aint-happening-clean-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340593","title":{"rendered":"The Energy Transition Ain’t Happening: “Clean Fuels”"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Manhattan Contrarian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Francis Menton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Come here for the latest news on how the so-called \u201cenergy transition\u201d is grinding to a halt. No amount of government handouts can make this ridiculously uneconomic fantasy work. My last post on the subject, on July 20<\/a>, reported on the collapse of a large \u201cgreen hydrogen\u201d project in Australia, with the stated loss of an investment of about $2 billion (Australian) (equivalent to about $1.3 billion U.S.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that that one was just the tip of the iceberg. Today\u2019s Wall Street Journal has a substantial roundup of the financial status of a half-dozen or so so-called \u201cclean fuel\u201d projects. The headlines from the print and online versions tell you what you need to know. In the print edition (page B3) it\u2019s \u201cClean-Fuel Startups Begin to Fizzle Out.\u201d Online, it\u2019s \u201cClean Fuel Startups Were Supposed to Be the Next Big Thing. Now They Are Collapsing.\u201d<\/a> As the headlines indicate, pretty much all of these \u201cclean fuels\u201d ventures are failing. Who could have guessed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Journal\u2019s label of \u201cclean fuels\u201d is used to cover two different categories, one being biofuels, and the other being so-called \u201cgreen hydrogen\u201d (the stuff produced by electrolysis of water using electricity produced by wind or sun). The biofuels category appears to include such genius ideas as making fuel for airplanes or ships out of used cooking grease. Whatever you might think of that idea, these are still carbon-based fuels, and it\u2019s not clear to me at all why they are supposedly \u201ccleaner\u201d than other carbon-based fuels like petroleum or natural gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hydrogen, on the other hand, offers the promise of providing energy for planes, trains, ships and automobiles free of the dreaded \u201ccarbon emissions.\u201d Just hook up some solar panels or wind turbines to big electrolyzers and watch the stuff bubble out of the water virtually for free! The badly misnamed \u201cInflation Reduction Act\u201d made billions upon billions of dollars of subsidies available for these kinds of projects. Surely the successes should be rolling forth one after the other by this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out that no matter how many subsidies the government doles out, nobody can make this \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen stuff as cheaply as natural gas can be produced by drilling into rock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the big green hydrogen startups is called Plug Power. The Journal quotes its CEO, Andy Marsh:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe excitement of the early days has not lived up to the hype,\u201d said Andy Marsh, chief executive of <\/em>Plug Power<\/em>, a startup that recently opened one of the country\u2019s first plants making green hydrogen, a <\/em>potential replacement for fossil fuels<\/em> in industries such as steel making and chemical production. <\/em>Shares of Plug Power have tumbled more than 90%<\/em><\/strong> since the passage of the <\/em>U.S. climate law<\/em> two years ago.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, at least they\u2019re not bankrupt \u2014 yet. You do have to wonder how Mr. Marsh could qualify to be a CEO of such a company and raise hundreds of millions of investor dollars without ever crunching the numbers to realize that green hydrogen could never be economical. Could it be that his business plan all along was to pay himself a big salary out of the investors\u2019 funds and then walk away when the inevitable bankruptcy came?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are a couple of paragraphs from the Journal summarizing the overall state of the industry:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many clean-fuel projects have become <\/em>money pits<\/em>, in part because of the great amounts of power they need. High interest rates, supply-chain disruptions and expensive power-grid upgrades <\/em>have driven up electricity prices<\/em>. . . . \u201cThe only way to fix it is by lowering the cost of green electricity,\u201d said Andrew Forrest, one of the <\/em>most vocal advocates<\/em> of hydrogen.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wait a minute. Andrew Forrest \u2014 where have we heard that name? Oh, he is the Australian tycoon who goes by the name \u201cTwiggy.\u201d He\u2019s the head of the company Fortescue, and was the subject of my July 20 post as a result of the collapse of his big Australian green hydrogen project. The Journal goes on to some detail about \u201cTwiggy\u2019s\u201d ongoing green hydrogen plans:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forrest, the billionaire founder of Australian iron-ore giant <\/em>Fortescue<\/em>, said his company\u2019s 2030 hydrogen production target now looks unrealistic. Fortescue is planning to produce its own clean power to make hydrogen in Australia and is considering doing the same <\/em>in Arizona<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But somehow the Journal fails to mention the failure of Forrest\u2019s big Australian project. Could it be that they interviewed him a month ago, before that happened?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the odds are that nobody will ever be able to make these \u201cclean fuels\u201d economically. The consequence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without clean fuels, emissions at many companies are expected to keep climbing, <\/em>threatening U.S. and global climate targets<\/em>. Industries including aviation and shipping are counting on the new fuels because wind and solar power and batteries can\u2019t meet their <\/em>huge energy needs<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When are we allowed to declare that this whole charade is over?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UPDATE, August 20: Commenter Pablo Honey suggests that it might be interesting to look at the financials for one of these \u201cclean fuels\u201d companies. Here is the 2Q 24 earnings release for Plug Power,<\/a> just out on August 8. Some key figures: revenue \u2014 $143.4 million; \u201cearnings\u201d \u2014 net loss of $262.3 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Margins: \u201cThe Georgia plant’s increased production capacity <\/em>and strategic price increases<\/em><\/strong> <\/em>across the hydrogen product portfolio<\/em><\/strong> have significantly improved hydrogen margins.\u201d <\/em>So they are increasing prices from levels that were already a multiple of the price of natural gas for equivalent energy content. Good for them if they can get someone to pay, but that inherently means that their market is limited to buyers who either need hydrogen for its non-energy properties (i.e., fertilizer) or ones who are willing to forego profit out of religious devotion to \u201cdecarbonization.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Government handouts: \u201cPlug Power became one of the first companies to leverage the PTC [Production Tax Credit] for its liquid hydrogen plant in Georgia, optimizing financial performance and enhancing shareholder value. . . . Plug Power is progressing with the DOE loan, which aims to support the expansion of its green hydrogen initiatives and infrastructure for up to six sites.\u201d<\/em> Great \u2014 it\u2019s another Solyndra in the works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Come here for the latest news on how the so-called \u201cenergy transition\u201d is grinding to a halt. No amount of government handouts can make this ridiculously uneconomic fantasy work. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":340596,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820609,691827130,691830316,691818618,691819849],"class_list":["post-340593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-biofuels","tag-carbon-dioxide-co2","tag-clean-fuels","tag-energy-transition","tag-green-hydrogen","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0WordPress-Plumptre.jpg?fit=2000%2C700&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qBr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":420446,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420446","url_meta":{"origin":340593,"position":0},"title":"Energy Transition Meltdown Could Mean Global Bifurcation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/08\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Energy Transition Meltdown Could Mean Global Bifurcation\" is an article published in late December 2025 by Vijay Jayaraj, at the CO\u2082 Coalition. Jayaraj argues that 2025 marked a turning point where major energy companies abandoned aggressive \"green\" commitments, exposing the net-zero energy transition as an unrealistic \"fantasy\" driven by bureaucracy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cgreen transition\u201d\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cgreen transition\u201d","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=green-transition-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1200%2C731&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1200%2C731&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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Trump?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There is no way your \u201cClean Energy Transition\u201d can occur without \u201creckless stupidity.\u201d \u2026 Add in the fact that the economy will be in FAR WORSE shape one year from now, together with the fact that pollsters like Times\/Siena routinely over-sample Democrats in their raw data adjustment process, and these\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Clean Energy Transition\"","block_context":{"text":"Clean Energy Transition","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=clean-energy-transition-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0donald-trump-2024-election-announcement.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0donald-trump-2024-election-announcement.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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The positive electoral effect comes from pointing out that a forced energy transition increases consumer costs, limits choice, and destroys jobs. 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He argues that the economics do not add up and that operators do not have a social licence to operate with their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Clean Power 2030\"","block_context":{"text":"Clean Power 2030","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=clean-power-2030"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-7.-Mai-2025-09_01_41-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-7.-Mai-2025-09_01_41-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-7.-Mai-2025-09_01_41-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-7.-Mai-2025-09_01_41-1.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=340593"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340593\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":340597,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340593\/revisions\/340597"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/340596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=340593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=340593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=340593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}