{"id":340232,"date":"2024-08-21T18:17:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-21T16:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340232"},"modified":"2024-08-21T18:18:16","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T16:18:16","slug":"hurricane-season-on-the-atlantic-coast-of-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340232","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Season on the Atlantic Coast of the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brief Note by Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is Hurricane Season in the northern hemisphere.  In the United States, this is a concern almost exclusively of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.  There have been hurricanes landfalling on the Pacific Coast \u2013 but very rarely<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every news outlet has been repeatedly telling us that NOAA\u2019s National Hurricane Center has predicted \u201can extremely active hurricane season<\/a>\u201d for the Atlantic Basin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For more than a decade, my wife and I spent hurricane seasons on our sailing catamaran in the Northern Caribbean, when we felt confident, or on the southern Atlantic Coast of the United States, during those hurricane seasons when we felt less confident.   We were hit only once in 12 years, and that was, as you may have guessed, not in the Caribbean but rather up north  in Beaufort, North Carolina by Hurricane Florence<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tropical storms and hurricanes that spin out into the Atlantic, without landfall, are of little concern except to shipping.  Like many things, the real trouble occurs at the interfaces of differing dynamical systems, such as where the land meets the sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sailors among you will realize that sailboats can\u2019t outrun hurricanes.  Even motoring, sailboats are generally limited in speed.  So, during hurricane season, we plan ahead so that we find ourselves within a easy passage to a safe-ish hurricane hole<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big question for sailors and mariners of all types is \u201cWhere will we be safe if and when a big storm arrives?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is one way to look at that question:   from NOAA  \u201cContinental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2023<\/em><\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This NOAA-produced map shows all landfalls of all hurricanes on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States since 1950. Each of the five categories is shown by a different colored dot.  Note that I have changed the Cat 2 color to pink, making it easier to distinguish from Cat 5 \u2013 both had been red originally and I have added the thick dark red line along the coast where hurricanes have not hit<\/em><\/strong> in the 74 years since 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the image above, there are a couple of odd, maybe \u2018lucky\u2019,  short stretches on the south-facing Gulf Coast and the west coast of Florida.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there\u2019s East Coast of Florida and Georgia:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The middle \u201cunhit area\u201d includes Cape Canaveral with the Kennedy Space Center.  The northern section is most of the coast of the state of Georgia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then up the coast to the Delmarva Peninsula<\/a> all the way to Maine.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In the close-up, you can see I missed a bit of \u2018coast not hit\u2019 there on the southern shore of Massachusetts\u2014only Hurricane Edna, Cat 2, hitting on Cape Cod\u2019s south shore in 1954.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of the this is due to geophysical factors of geology (the shape of the shoreline itself) and prevailing wind\/weather\/ocean current patterns.  Some of it must be just \u201cnot hit yet<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notice that the Jersey Shore, that long stretch of barrier islands from Sandy Hook, NJ south through Atlantic City, an almost continuous barrier island\/sand bar nearly totally covered with homes and businesses, including Atlantic City, which last suffered a direct hit from a hurricane in 1903<\/a>, \u201cthe first and only known North Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the state of New Jersey since records were kept starting in 1851.\u201d  Note that former-Hurricane Sandy did strike the Jersey shore in 2012 as a tropical storm \u2013 or \u201cSuper Storm Sandy\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does any of this history mean that the \u201cnever hit\u201d areas will be hurricane safe later this year?  Or next year? Or in the next decades?   No, I don\u2019t think so, but I\u2019m willing to hear from those with more knowledge about what drives hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geography seems to protect the eastern-facing shores of Massachusetts and Maine \u2013 which, however, do bear the brunt of Nor\u2019Easters<\/a>, which occur in the opposite season (September through April) from hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One last thing:  Tracks of all the known Tropical Storms and Hurricanes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now isn\u2019t that an interesting picture?  Where tropical cyclones originate and where they go \u2013 and where they don\u2019t go. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I offer no speculation, no theories, no hypotheses, not even any opinions. Only when I am acting as a Captain do I concern myself with hurricane tracks \u2013 which means I only look out about five days in advance, which is the limit of hurricane track prediction to any great accuracy \u2013 even then, their average prediction of point of landfall is only accurate to about +\/- 150 miles<\/a>.  Any further in advance and it is mostly useless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Edward Lorenz<\/a> and Dave Fultz<\/a>\u2019s dishpan experiments showed quite clearly that these cyclonic storms are chaotic in origin and nature. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is Hurricane Season in the northern hemisphere.\u00a0 In the United States, this is a concern almost exclusively of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.\u00a0 There have been hurricanes landfalling on the Pacific Coast \u2013 but\u00a0very rarely.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":340241,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691830261,691818104,691830262],"class_list":{"0":"post-340232","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-coast","9":"tag-hurricanes","10":"tag-noaas-national-hurricane-center","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0All-Storms-and-Hurricanes-Tracks_large.jpg?fit=1900%2C1113&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qvC","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":259866,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259866","url_meta":{"origin":340232,"position":0},"title":"Sorry, CBS News Philly, Landfalling Hurricanes Are Not Increasing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A CBS News Philidelphia\u00a0segment\u00a0on hurricanes claims that climate change will cause increase in hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. This claim is unsubstantiated and undermined by the available evidence. Rather than citing data or the science provided by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CBS\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2021-02-02-at-13.30.30.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2021-02-02-at-13.30.30.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2021-02-02-at-13.30.30.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2021-02-02-at-13.30.30.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screen-Shot-2021-02-02-at-13.30.30.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":437948,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=437948","url_meta":{"origin":340232,"position":1},"title":"Updated hurricane forecast just in time for the climate conference","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The forecast numbers for the 2026 season Total storms: 9-13 Hurricanes: 3-5 Major Hurricanes: 1-2 Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2 Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3 ACE Index: 85-105","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417032,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417032","url_meta":{"origin":340232,"position":2},"title":"Northern Hemisphere tropical activity in 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Second year in a row with below-normal tropical activity across the Northern Hemisphere\u2026 western Pacific Ocean leads the way with its seventh straight down year\u2026no hurricanes hit the US for the first time in a decade","rel":"","context":"In \"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)\"","block_context":{"text":"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":213998,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=213998","url_meta":{"origin":340232,"position":3},"title":"The 53rd Anniversary of Hurricane Camille\u2026A Category 5 At Landfall and One of The Most Devastating Storms in US History","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricane Camille will always be remembered as one of the most devastating storms in US history and one of only four category 5 hurricanes to strike the US.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-657.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-657.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-657.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-657.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":234861,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=234861","url_meta":{"origin":340232,"position":4},"title":"How Predictive Was NOAA\u2019 s Gloomy 2022 Hurricane Forecast? Not Very","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA does not forecast the number of hurricanes that will hit a U.S. coast.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":220899,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=220899","url_meta":{"origin":340232,"position":5},"title":"AccuWeather Says Hurricane Ian Could Become Cat 4 or Not, Depending on Wind Shear","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Current forecasts strongly indicate Hurricane Ian will strengthen into a Category 4 in the coming days.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1292.png?fit=900%2C601&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1292.png?fit=900%2C601&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1292.png?fit=900%2C601&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1292.png?fit=900%2C601&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=340232"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340232\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":340244,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340232\/revisions\/340244"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/340241"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=340232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=340232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=340232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}