{"id":339769,"date":"2024-08-16T15:58:51","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T13:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339769"},"modified":"2024-08-16T15:58:53","modified_gmt":"2024-08-16T13:58:53","slug":"no-nyt-climate-tipping-points-are-not-in-our-near-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339769","title":{"rendered":"No, NYT, \u2018Climate Tipping Points\u2019 are Not in Our Near Future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The New York Times<\/em> (NYT) recently published a special Sunday feature titled, \u201cHow Close Are the Planet\u2019s Climate Tipping Points?\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article, which is heavy on infographics and short on actual references or facts tackles several topics about Earth\u2019s features that may be \u201cin danger of collapse.\u201d The entire article is nothing more than speculation with pretty graphics and doesn\u2019t offer any evidence whatsoever that Earth is close to these so-called \u201ctipping points.<\/a>\u201d The article heavily hedges its bets with weasel-words such as, could, may, might<\/em>, and possibly<\/em> but doesn\u2019t make a single solid prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a summary of the NYT article claims, plus the prediction of \u201cWhen it might happen,\u201d which follows each topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the past two decades, scientists have been raising alarms about great systems in the natural world that warming, caused by carbon emissions, might be pushing toward collapse. These systems are so vast that they can stay somewhat in balance even as temperatures rise. But only to a point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once we warm the planet beyond certain levels, this balance might be lost, scientists say. The effects would be sweeping and hard to reverse. Not like the turning of a dial, but the flipping of a switch. One that wouldn\u2019t be easily flipped back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mass Death of Coral Reefs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In time, the reefs can bounce back. As the world gets warmer, though, occasional bleaching is becoming regular bleaching. Mild bleaching is becoming severe bleaching. When it might happen:<\/em><\/strong> It could already be underway.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Collapse of Greenland Ice and Breakup of West Antarctic Ice<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could become more likely at 1.5\u00b0C. When it might happen:<\/em><\/strong> The timing will vary place to place. The effects on global warming could accumulate over a century or more. Irreversible melting could begin this century and unfold over hundreds, even thousands, of years.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abrupt Thawing of Permafrost<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The localized thaw of permafrost could become more likely at 1.5\u00b0C. When it might happen:<\/em><\/strong> The timing will vary place to place. The effects on global warming could accumulate over a century or more.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sudden Shift in the West African Monsoon<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monsoons may be disrupted. When it might happen:<\/em><\/strong> Hard to predict.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loss of Amazon Rainforest<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By 2050, as much as half of today\u2019s Amazon forest could be at risk. When it might happen: <\/em><\/strong>Will depend on how rapidly people clear, or protect, the remaining forest.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shutdown of Atlantic Currents<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC may slow down, changing the weather. When it might happen:<\/em><\/strong> Very hard to predict.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you can see for yourself, the NYT didn\u2019t have a single definitive answer for \u201cWhen it might happen.\u201d<\/em> This is not at all surprising as every one of these predictions about tipping points is based on computerized climate models which we know to be faulty and have a tendency to be running overly hot<\/a> with no scientific justification other than built-in bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is what we know based on actual data and measurements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n