{"id":339664,"date":"2024-08-15T10:30:04","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T08:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339664"},"modified":"2024-08-15T10:30:06","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T08:30:06","slug":"western-hudson-bay-sea-ice-breakup-for-polar-bears-like-the-1980s-for-3-of-the-last-5-yrs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339664","title":{"rendered":"Western Hudson Bay sea ice breakup for polar bears like the 1980s for 3 of the last 5 yrs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 1980s and early 1990s are said to have been the \u201cgood old days\u201d for sea ice conditions and polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, with all tagged bears usually ashore by mid-to-late August. Then an abrupt\u00a0step-change in sea ice breakup<\/a>\u00a0dates brought polar bears to shore an average of two weeks earlier in the late 1990s. From then until 2019, the only significant outlier to all tagged bears being ashore by about late July was 2009, which was such an unusually cold year that the last bears came ashore about August 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That pattern changed in 2020<\/a>, when the last bears came off the ice as late as they had in 2009, on August 21. Something similar happened in 2022<\/a>, when the last bears came off a small remnant of ice even later, about August 26. And this year, the bears may be moving ashore even later: there is even more ice remaining off WH and much of it is thick compacted ice that hasn\u2019t melted much over the last few weeks, which means bears have been as late onshore as the 1980s for three out of the last five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About 40% of all tagged bears were still offshore at August 8. Below, chart showing position of tagged polar bears at August 8 (11\/27 or 41% are still on the ice):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two years ago, at\u00a0August 7, 2022 (below)<\/a>, there appeared to be barely any ice off WH but we know that satellites notoriously under-report ice by up to 20% during the melt season because they misclassify melt-ponds over ice as open water. Still, the last tagged bears stayed offshore another two weeks in 2022 on whatever bits of ice remained, like they did in the 1980s when there was more ice available:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This year the situation is even more unusual. Against all predictions of deteriorating summer sea ice conditions, there is a large patch of thick to very thick sea ice off W. Hudson Bay. Below, see the daily sea ice stage of development chart (i.e. thickness) for August 10: W. Hudson Bay has much more ice this year than 2022, and there could be even more misclassified as open water:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher<\/a> dutifully reported the unexpected tagged polar bear\/sea ice situation in WH last week but failed to mention that this is the third time in five years that bears have been offshore the first week in August as they were in the 1980s even as he acknowledges that this phenomenon should be good news for bear survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my opinion, 40% of all tagged bears being offshore is what I would call more than \u201csome.\u201d So many bears offshore and the current ice conditions suggest it\u2019s possible that more than one or two bears might remain on that large block of thick ice until very late August or even early September, which might be the first time that\u2019s happened since the 1980s (if it even happened then).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For comparison, in 2022, at August 5, 33% of tagged bears (8\/24) were still out on small patches of ice that satellites were obviously under-reported because (given that some bears appear to be on no ice whatsoever):<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Even with some bears onshore, there has not yet been a\u00a0problem bear report<\/a>\u00a0issued by the town of Churchill for 2024. In 2020, the first problem bear report (for the last week of August) was\u00a0not released until September 1<\/a>, so we may have to wait a few weeks more to find out the situation there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 1980s and early 1990s are said to have been the \u201cgood old days\u201d for sea ice conditions and polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, with all tagged bears usually ashore by mid-to-late August. Then an abrupt step-change in sea ice breakup dates brought polar bears to shore an average of two weeks earlier in the late 1990s. From then until 2019, the only significant outlier to all tagged bears being ashore by about late July was 2009, which was such an unusually cold year that the last bears came ashore about August 20.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":339677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818251,691820790,691820789],"class_list":{"0":"post-339664","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-polar-bears","9":"tag-sea-ice-breakup","10":"tag-western-hudson-bay","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/036_20210907143513_4912409_xlarge.jpg?fit=1700%2C1133&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qms","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":267566,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267566","url_meta":{"origin":339664,"position":0},"title":"Hudson Bay sea ice loss has not accelerated since 2014: in fact, summer ice cover has improved","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is only the third year since 2014 that the bay has had less than usual amounts of ice, which means most years since then have had normal or nearly normal ice coverage, similar to the 1980s. Hardly the\u00a0ever-worsening catastrophe\u00a0of sea ice loss story being spun in the media for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Hudson Bay\"","block_context":{"text":"Hudson Bay","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hudson-bay"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":266535,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=266535","url_meta":{"origin":339664,"position":1},"title":"Natural flexibility explains W Hudson Bay polar bear movements at breakup better than climate change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hudson Bay in early July this year is a mosaic of more-than-average and less-than-average sea ice coverage but apparently, only the less-than-average ice areas constitute the \u201cearly breakup\u201d caused by climate change, and only \u201cdeniers\u201d would say otherwise.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-279.png?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":265498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=265498","url_meta":{"origin":339664,"position":2},"title":"Early sea ice breakup in W Hudson Bay caused by \u201crecord breaking\u201d warmth in 2023 but not 2015?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"According to\u00a0Polar Bears International, the \u201c3rd-earliest\u201d breakup date for Western Hudson Bay was caused by a \u201crecord breaking\u201d heat wave in May. Western Hudson Bay sea ice hit the 30% coverage threshold used by PBI to define \u201cbreakup\u201d on 17 June this year, prompting speculation about potential future impacts on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bears Onshore\"","block_context":{"text":"Bears Onshore","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bears-onshore"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0OIGP-3.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":214945,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214945","url_meta":{"origin":339664,"position":3},"title":"Grizzly on the shore of W. Hudson Bay and two tagged polar bears still on sea ice on 17 August","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/22\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Before this, polar bear experts looked at the sea ice conditions in the 1980s and figured that was what polar bears absolutely required","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":257313,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257313","url_meta":{"origin":339664,"position":4},"title":"Polar bears in W. Hudson Bay are in good shape, says researcher. So are numbers really falling?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"We\u2019ve got ourselves another round of field data\u2013i.e., facts\u2013not fitting the\u00a0polar-bears-are-starving-to-death\u00a0narrative. According to polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher, Western Hudson Bay polar bears his team saw in April while installing collars and ear tags were in\u00a0good shape\u00a0this year, as he said they were\u00a0last year.","rel":"","context":"In \"plar bears\"","block_context":{"text":"plar bears","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=plar-bears"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290645,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290645","url_meta":{"origin":339664,"position":5},"title":"Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn\u2019t their worst summer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For months, the media has been bleating about the poor polar bears of Churchill suffering from lack of sea ice blamed on human-caused climate change during the so-called\u00a0\u2018hottest year\u2019 on record: in\u00a0April,\u00a0July,\u00a0August,\u00a0November, and\u00a0December.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=339664"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339664\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":339679,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339664\/revisions\/339679"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/339677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=339664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=339664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=339664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}