{"id":339292,"date":"2024-08-11T17:23:58","date_gmt":"2024-08-11T15:23:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339292"},"modified":"2024-08-11T17:24:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-11T15:24:00","slug":"amoc-collapse-depends-entirely-on-modelswill-occur-sometime-between-now-and-infinity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339292","title":{"rendered":"AMOC Collapse Depends Entirely On Models\u2026Will Occur Sometime Between Now And Infinity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMOC Uncertainties<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Frank Bosse at Klimanachrichten<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A \u201ccollapse\u201d of the AMOC (Atlantic overturning circulation) cannot be \u201ccalculated\u201d at all. We have reported on several projections of the AMOC here, most recently here<\/a> and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is now an interesting twist to the once very \u201ccelebrated\u201d study<\/a> (DD23 below), which predicted a collapse of the AMOC between 2025 and 2095 with 95% certainty!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It actually already existed in September 2023 when the preprint appeared<\/a>, i.e. only around 3 months after the publication of DD23. Now the official publication in the journal \u201cScience Advances<\/a>\u201d (BY24 below). The title speaks volumes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The uncertainties are too large to determine \u2018tipping point times\u2019 of major Earth system components from historical data.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Longer sections of the current paper are dedicated to DD23. She had drawn (far too) far-reaching conclusions from the SST (sea surface temperatures) of the \u201cAtlantic Subpolar Gyre\u201d with the help of variance and autocorrelation determinations, using the HadiSST1 data set alone. This was not permissible, BY24 finds, because the SSTs there are NOT simply observations when these are not available in the required spatial and temporal resolution. Something is added, in principle it is a model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In BY 24 it is now calculated that when using different data products (e.g. also NASA\u2019s ERSSTv5 with other \u201cinfill methods\u201d) very different \u201ccollapse times of the AMOC\u201d are determined: \u201cbetween 2000 and infinity\u201d!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the real observations are included in all SST data products, in the end it only depends on how the observations are \u201csupplemented\u201d using a model in order to determine a collapse time. This is obviously nonsense, the results are sensitive to the data used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So whenever you read about any \u201ctipping point\u201d times: In truth, they cannot be determined at all because we do not (yet) have enough reliable information on the system.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will this also be the case with \u201cThe last generation\u2026before the tipping points\u201d \u2013 as the movement is called in full? Its name is inherently unscientific. Bad news for \u201cscience followers\u201d!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So whenever you read about any \u201ctipping point\u201d times: In truth, they cannot be determined at all because we do not (yet) have enough reliable information on the system.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":339295,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691830093,691823916],"class_list":{"0":"post-339292","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-amoc-atlantic-overturning-circulation","9":"tag-tipping-point","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0AMOC.jpg?fit=1826%2C836&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1qgs","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":270153,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270153","url_meta":{"origin":339292,"position":0},"title":"No CNN, Gulf Stream is Not\u00a0Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The averaged AMOC projections from\u00a0climate models\u00a0under all the IPCC emissions\u00a0scenarios all show an AMOC decline, but not a collapse (a \u201chigh confidence\u201d conclusion). Some individual climate model runs do show a future collapse in the AMOC, so the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409239,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409239","url_meta":{"origin":339292,"position":1},"title":"New Study Contradicts The Alarmist Narrative That Says The AMOC Is Catastrophically Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Alarmists claim that, due to anthropogenic climate change (AGW), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening to the point that it\u2019s on the verge of\u00a0collapsing. It\u2019s claimed this will lead to abrupt cooling and extreme weather in the North Atlantic region.","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-climate-change-agw"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417967,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417967","url_meta":{"origin":339292,"position":2},"title":"Yahoo\u2019s Waning Ocean Current Claims Are Hyperbolic and False","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Yahoo News article, \u201cExperts warn ongoing concern with Atlantic Ocean will be direct threat to dozens of nations: \u2018Consequences for at least 1,000 years to come,\u2019\u201d by Timothy McGill, claims a new modeling study shows that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC,) would intensify Southern\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":339292,"position":3},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282169,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282169","url_meta":{"origin":339292,"position":4},"title":"AMOC: A Non-Tipping point","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? Gabriel Oxenstierna, Ph.D The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth\u2019s major ocean circulation systems\u2014it redistributes heat on our planet and is a key driver of climate variability. There is a northward transport of heat throughout the Atlantic, comprising one quarter of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":285535,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285535","url_meta":{"origin":339292,"position":5},"title":"Turmoil around the AMOC again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"ANY estimation of the timing of a tipping point must take into account the uncertainties, which are so considerable that they are all inadequate in the light of day, when made. Bet you won't read that in the media? From The\u00a0KlimaNachrichten Editor By Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse A reminiscence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00H66M7P-1-e1559894595422.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=339292"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339292\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":339296,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/339292\/revisions\/339296"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/339295"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=339292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=339292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=339292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}